<p>So how many of you are still sitting out the rally? Up 15% since the low.</p>
<p>Just an election bounce I think. It would be nice if I was wrong about this.</p>
<p>I haven’t adjusted my 401K investment, but I don’t think this will last.</p>
<p>The last couple of days could just be the TOM effect.</p>
<p>The problem with the rally today is that the US Dollar is down about two percent, and gold and oil are up big. The $TYX is heading south too. There was an economic report this morning, maybe factory orders covering durable and non-durable goods. It was expected to be down 0.2% but actually came in down 2.5% so the economic news wasn’t good. But the demand for stock is.</p>
<p>Clearly stock market prices have little to do with economic reality. Prices seem to follow the herd mentality.</p>
<p>“So how many of you are still sitting out the rally? Up 15% since the low.”</p>
<p>So?</p>
<p>Better than down 15% for one. Maybe the market/economy were oversold.</p>
<p>Not the economy. ;)</p>
<p>Although, Oct. might be a bad as it gets. </p>
<p>I’m hearing that in Marin County, a pretty wealthy county, credit card sales were down 20% in Sept. compared to the year earlier.</p>
<p>October is probably worse.</p>
<p>Well past the time many were declaring the recession the economy was still in postive territory despite all the cut backs in home building and realted fields. Even the last Q the downturn was so tiny they had to take it out to several digits and annualize it out to a quarter % or so. No doubt this Q will be bad but looking out 6 mos or so you’ll have a new admin and the papers gushing over how wonderful things are all of a sudden. A little positive psychology and $2.50 gas for awhile will improve reality as well. Our business is already picking up as opportunity buyers are looking to snap up deals before it’s too late.</p>
<p><a href=“http://finance.yahoo.com/expert/article/futureinvest/118916[/url]”>http://finance.yahoo.com/expert/article/futureinvest/118916</a></p>
<p>I was at the downtown Nordstrom last night, and there were people shopping for designer shoes like there was no tomorrow. I saw real Gucci boots for the first time in my life! I even touched one as I walked by :)</p>
<p>There are several blue chip companies with high dividends that are likely not to be cut. It is time to buy those companies.</p>
<p>Barrons, you remind me of Herbert Hoover. He kept saying the economy is sound too.</p>
<p>I’m hearing that hedge funds have completed 90% of their deleveraging, so that’s good.</p>
<p>dstark, do you have an opinion on Louis Navellier? Ever heard of him?</p>
<p>I have heard of Louis Navellier.</p>
<p>I’m not too high on gurus. If he has helped make you money, then that’s fine.</p>
<p>Do you use his stuff?</p>
<p>Private Equity Draws the Cold Shoulder
Endowments, Pension Funds Rebuff Calls to Make Investments as Some Aim to Offload Stakes
[Private</a> Equity Draws the Cold Shoulder - WSJ.com](<a href=“http://sec.online.wsj.com/article/SB122575776824995245.html]Private”>http://sec.online.wsj.com/article/SB122575776824995245.html)</p>
<p>Convertible Bonds Cause Hedge Funds Serious Pain
[Convertible</a> Bonds Cause Hedge Funds Serious Pain - WSJ.com](<a href=“http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122575841314895287.html]Convertible”>http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122575841314895287.html)</p>
<p>
</p>
<p>Yes, I have in the past. He is a perma-bull while I have not been for a while. He takes sort of a “quant” approach to investing. My strategy for the prior 1.5 years was to buy high yielding stocks with stable dividends because I knew we were heading into a recession. Unfortunately, it didn’t work. Everything went down. I did not anticipate an American financial crisis given how much money the Fed had been pumping into the economy for many years.</p>
<p>Columbia_Student, nice links.</p>
<p>razorsharp, I don’t really like Louis Navellier very much.
If you scroll down this link and look at his comments… who needs that kind of advice? I’m glad you’re not a diehard fan.</p>
<p>[CXOAG</a> Guru Grades – Louis Navellier: Calculating the Market’s Moves](<a href=“http://www.cxoadvisory.com/gurus/Navellier/]CXOAG”>http://www.cxoadvisory.com/gurus/Navellier/)</p>
<p>Razorsharp, yes, everything has been hit.
All kinds of stocks. Muni bonds. Corporate bonds. Convertible bonds. Almost any mutual fund you can think of except for the short funds, and they usually do poorly. Commodities. </p>
<p>So yeah. It’s a tough year for most. Join the club.</p>
<p>Apparently there are lots of HHs out there.</p>
<p>[Stocks</a> surge as investors anticipate yearend rally: Financial News - Yahoo! Finance](<a href=“Yahoo Finance - Stock Market Live, Quotes, Business & Finance News”>Yahoo Finance - Stock Market Live, Quotes, Business & Finance News)</p>
<p>There were many Herbert Hoovers in 1929.</p>
<p>Get a copy of “The crash of 1929”, by Kenneth Galbraith. </p>
<p>(I’m not saying we are going to have a depression). We’re also not going to be back to business in 6 months either.</p>
<p>The leverage we were using led to some phony economic growth, and excessive rising asset prices. That leverage isn’t coming back for … several decades. Things are going to calm down and let’s see where we are, Barrons.</p>
<p>Hmmm. Who posted this several hours ago?</p>
<p>"Financial crisis hits Cornell, others </p>
<p>Going to be a rocky couple of years.</p>
<p>Bloomberg.com: Worldwide</p>
<p>From Higher Ed</p>
<p>“The value of the University of Virginia’s endowment fell by about $600 million, or 11 percent, in the fiscal quarter that ended September 30, and had dropped by an additional $600 million, or 20 percent, in the first half of October, The Cavalier Daily and The Richmond Times-Dispatch reported. The newspaper accounts, citing a report by the University of Virginia Investment Management Company, said that the decline in the quarter ended September 30 was the biggest ever in actual dollars, and matched in percentage only by drops in 1990 and 1987. The Daily Texan reported that the combined investments of the University of Texas System had dropped by $1.6 billion in the month of September alone.”</p>
<p>“Going to be a rocky couple of years.”</p>
<p>You already changed your mind? :)</p>
<p>And yes, when i read your posts, you do remind me of Herbert Hoover. Or is it Irving Fisher? Or is it Larry Kudlow? ;)</p>
<p>[INVESTMENT</a> INTELLIGENCER: Jeremy Siegel: The “Irving Fisher of the 21st Century?”](<a href=“http://www.investmentintelligencer.com/2007/05/jeremy_siegel_t.html]INVESTMENT”>http://www.investmentintelligencer.com/2007/05/jeremy_siegel_t.html)</p>
<p>How are Siegel’s funds doing this year?</p>
<p>[DLN:</a> Summary for WISDOMTREE LC DVDND - Yahoo! Finance](<a href=“http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=DLN]DLN:”>WisdomTree U.S. LargeCap Dividend Fund (DLN) Stock Price, News, Quote & History - Yahoo Finance)
[DTD:</a> Summary for WISDOMTREE TTL DIV - Yahoo! Finance](<a href=“http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=DTD]DTD:”>WisdomTree U.S. Total Dividend Fund (DTD) Stock Price, News, Quote & History - Yahoo Finance)</p>
<p>Higher Ed is not the same as the economy. Many depend on state funding which will take a couple years to come back. I’m talking about the stock market which is a leading indicator most of the time.<br>
By carefully selecting my home markets for investments I have not lost a dime from the peak yet. </p>
<p>We’ll talk in 6 months.</p>