Always a risk.
Sounds like you want to stay closer to home - so maybe Michigan State, as a PhD feeder, is that perfect safety - you know UW, UMN, Michigan State - and done. Or if Minnesota is the top choice, why apply to UW at all.
What I worry about with the big publics - how impactful are essays and LORs (don’t know). Per UMN, considered, two steps down from the top - rigor, GPA, test score. UMN has a much higher acceptance rate than I realized - more than 3/4 of students were admitted. I did not realize - so yeah, it seems reasonable - so then how about UMN and Michigan State (think PhD feeder and LGBTQ friendly state) and done. I think Iowa, if the state laws and treatment matter, would not make your list - other than its adjacent. It’s Alabama as a state - but close to home, in other words.
I do think the SUNYs – if Buff is auto admit - fine school. Albany is the R1 safety though - but again, don’t think it matters.
But you are right - looks an easy admit for liberal arts. Then the transferability is the issue - what if he can’t? Or is that a risk willing to take if it comes down to it.
Wow, I learned something new (about UMN) - a bit easier to get in than realized.
Thanks for that.