As an engineer/quant jock, I spent a fair bit of time analyzing the AMC statistics and MPfG cutoffs from 2018 onwards to come up with those projections. My D22 is on the border, so I sliced the numbers up several ways.
The numbers appear high because MAA again lowered the AIME thresholds to where 10% of AMC12 participants qualified. Had they kept at the historic 5-6%, these numbers wouldn’t appear as high relative to the AIME cutoffs.
Of course, I could be totally wrong.