<p>The economy is not in a recession</p>
<p>[Second</a> quarter growth revised upward to 3.3 percent - Yahoo! News](<a href=“http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080828/bs_nm/usa_economy_dc]Second”>http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080828/bs_nm/usa_economy_dc)</p>
<p>[Second-quarter</a> U.S. GDP surges 3.3%; was it high-water mark? - MarketWatch](<a href=“Second-quarter growth revised significantly higher - MarketWatch”>Second-quarter growth revised significantly higher - MarketWatch)</p>
<p>Thank goodness. Now we can all pay our bills. ;)</p>
<p>From article linked above:</p>
<p>“Economists expect growth to slip to a 2% rate in the third quarter, and **forecasts for fourth-quarter growth are downright grim. **Weak banks, exhausted consumers and cautious hiring are expected to drag down growth in coming quarters. And with no end in sight for the drop in house prices, economists are unable to see an end to the financial-market stress that is holding back activity.”</p>
<p>**Note to Include in Memo **: Good thing that the results from the really bad slippage may not be reported until after the November election. No way NO how is there a recession.</p>
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<p>Good for you. Make sure you put some of the money away to help with the recession, I am not sure when it will arrive, but the DNC says it will definitely get here.</p>
<p>Stimulus package.</p>
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<p>How do you know this? They revised the growth up after economists predicted in the last quarter that it would be only 1.9%, that is the problem with predictions, it is just predictions. Until the actual data comes in, we can just predict.</p>
<p>Note: Recession is when the economy experience two negative quarterly growth in a row. The economy is not in a recession when it grows at 2%</p>
<p>They said these same things last quarter:</p>
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<p>They predicted a growth of 1.9%, which has been revised to 3.3% after the actual data came in.</p>
<p>Note: Another stimulus package would make the number(s) look even better.</p>
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<p>The dollar is down, so exports should be up, at least, that is what the theory says.</p>
<p>** Note: ** The stimulus check was not all that successful, consumption went up by only 1.7%. Exports, on the other hand, went up by ** 13.2% **.</p>
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<p>I am so happy to hear that. I always thought the low $ should help exports - there are upside to a low $, hopefully that will counter the effects of inflation.</p>
<p>I am so tired of reading about the doom and gloom. </p>
<p>I had been reading Howard Ruff & his ilk and tried to store some food. Then I got a major insect problem, I had to throw away bags and bags of grains. :mad:</p>
<p>I was listening to a local newscast, from a fairly conservative station (goes to show you the news folks love bad news) and they were reporting on the growth numbers a few months ago. You coud hear the dissapointment in their voices when they ended the “news” with, “well, I guess we’re not in a recession, at least not yet.”</p>
<p>It’s disgusting. No room for commentary when reporting the news.</p>
<p>I don’t know how much of an advantage the lower dollar is.
We export, but we also importand a lower dollar buys less. Some of the economies that import from us have their currencies pegged to the dollar but also import from countries dealing in euros as well as from the US. And they’ve been hurting from the falling dollar.
So it may turn out to be a wash.</p>
<p>I think people are hoping that this is a recession because they don’t want to imagine things getting much worse. But it’s only those in the middle and below who are really feeling it- especially those for whom a $70 weekly tank of gas is not something they can afford.</p>
<p>*
I think people are hoping that this is a recession because they don’t want to imagine things getting much worse. But it’s only those in the middle and below who are really feeling it- *</p>
<p>Which is why you have this contingent on CC that are in denial of the impact inflation, layoffs,taxes, cost of health insurance/medical care and dropping property values have on families.</p>
<p>“I don’t know how much of an advantage the lower dollar is. We export, but we also import and a lower dollar buys less. Some of the economies that import from us have their currencies pegged to the dollar but also import from countries dealing in euros as well as from the US. And they’ve been hurting from the falling dollar. So it may turn out to be a wash.”</p>
<p>The change in currency helps us in more ways than it hurts us. We have had a strong dollar for decades and have come to expect cheap imports and our exporters have had to get very efficient in order to compete with companies abroad. The cost of a strong currency, though, has been the loss in manufacturing and now service and skilled jobs. The weaker dollar helps to reverse the flow of jobs abroad. Yes, imports cost more but I’d rather have a lot more people employed and learning how to consume less than a lot of people without jobs with the remaining consuming more.</p>
<p>The high growth period from the mid-1990s to 2007 (excluding 2001/2002) are an abnormality. Unfortunately most got used to that growth, in salaries, stock market returns, etc. Some of the financial advisers that I’m reading are expecting a slow-growth environment for up to 20 years.</p>
<p>BCeagle:</p>
<p>Good point. I think in the long run, it will help wean us from cheap imports. In the short run, though, it probably hurts or is a wash.</p>
<p>Weak dollar means we get to pay our owners in deflated currency.</p>
<p>*The high growth period from the mid-1990s to 2007 (excluding 2001/2002) are an abnormality. Unfortunately most got used to that growth, in salaries, stock market returns, etc. *</p>
<p>Median income is $47,950. Where are you seeing growth?</p>
<p>Looking at our social security records our income is within $5,000 of 5 years ago. However, while our medical insurance used to pay most of our bills, now we have a high individual deductible, high family deductible & a % owed of each charge- same self insured employer.
Which means we don’t go to the dr, unless we have to, & sometimes not even then.</p>
<p>We have the highest rate of inflation in the country, our food costs are very high because of special diet for allergies and we do not see our income increasing in the next five years anymore than it did in the past five.</p>
<p>Our family is not unusual & at least we are still able to work & I am working on talking my H into making the garage living space to rent out.
( what is it about men and garages- you know how many years it has been since we got a car in there? :rolleyes: )</p>
<p>I don’t like the weak dollar. Now our assets are cheaper to foreigners who can buy our businesses and our assets at lower prices. </p>
<p>When we go invest overseas or just vacation overseas, our costs are higher.</p>
<p>I’m also not in the export business.</p>
<p>I’m also skeptical of the 3.3% gdp growth.</p>
<p>Most of our trade imbalance is with China and the oil exporters. Most of the oil exporting nations tie their currencies to the US dollar. China does its own thing.</p>
<p>I’d like to see our dollar do better against the English pound and the Euro, so it wouldn’t cost $20 to get a hamburger.</p>
<p>The stock market did great in the 80’s and 90’s. The last 8 years…</p>
<p>“The high growth period from the mid-1990s to 2007 (excluding
2001/2002) are an abnormality. Unfortunately most got used to that
growth, in salaries, stock market returns, etc.”</p>
<p>“Median income is $47,950. Where are you seeing growth?”</p>
<p><a href=“http://mwhodges.home.att.net/income.gif[/url]”>http://mwhodges.home.att.net/income.gif</a> shows median family incomes
from 1979 to 2006. Median income has been weak to flat this century
but was nicely up from 1993 to 2000 (thanks Bill).</p>
<p>The S&P 500 went from about 430 to about 1300 from 1993 to now.</p>
<p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average went from around 3300 to 11,687
from 1993 to now.</p>
<p>The NASDAQ Composite went from about 700 to 2408 from 1993 to now.</p>
<p>“Looking at our social security records our income is within $5,000 of
5 years ago. However, while our medical insurance used to pay most of
our bills, now we have a high individual deductible, high family
deductible & a % owed of each charge- same self insured employer.
Which means we don’t go to the dr, unless we have to, & sometimes not
even then.”</p>
<p>There have been winners and losers in the economy - that’s for sure.
I think that every industry has had its ups and downs for quite some
time. It adds some pressure to look around for additional income
opportunities.</p>
<p>“We have the highest rate of inflation in the country, our food costs
are very high because of special diet for allergies and we do not see
our income increasing in the next five years anymore than it did in
the past five.”</p>
<p>I personally prefer the Austrian school of economics but it’s been
passe’ as it is harder to manipulate. The US is a country of debtors,
therefore it prefers inflation to deflation as inflation kills debt
and deflation makes it unbearable.</p>
<p>“Our family is not unusual & at least we are still able to work & I am
working on talking my H into making the garage living space to rent
out. ( what is it about men and garages- you know how many years it
has been since we got a car in there?”</p>
<p>I don’t know. We don’t have a garage. We opted for a finished basement.</p>
<p>BCEagle91, come on…</p>
<p>"The S&P 500 went from about 430 to about 1300 from 1993 to now.</p>
<p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average went from around 3300 to 11,687
from 1993 to now.</p>
<p>The NASDAQ Composite went from about 700 to 2408 from 1993 to now."</p>
<p>I’m not going to go through all the numbers…</p>
<p>The Nsdq is down since the end of 1999 huge… down since the end of 2000.</p>
<p>The s&p closed at 1469 at the end of 1999.</p>
<p>Closed at 1320 at the end of 2000 </p>
<p>The S&P is 1291 as of this writing.</p>
<p>The stock market has not had large growth for a long time.</p>
<p>I didn’t think anybody said it has.</p>
<p>Right now, on CNBC, the last decade is being called the lost decade for the stock market. Approximately 11:43 on the P Coast.</p>
<p>The S&P with dividends is up 21% in the last 10 years, 5% percent without.</p>
<p>I don’t know too many people calling the last 7 years a high growth period for the economy as a whole or the stock market.</p>
<p>“I don’t like the weak dollar. Now our assets are cheaper to foreigners
who can buy our businesses and our assets at lower prices.”</p>
<p>Well, the rest of the world has been used to that for a long time. I
like to buy certain foreign companies as much as the next trader or
investor.</p>
<p>“When we go invest overseas or just vacation overseas, our costs are
higher.”</p>
<p>Any kind of change presents opportunities. Especially trading
opportunities. As far as vacations go, we’re fortunate to have a huge
and diverse country to travel around and vacation in.</p>
<p>“I’m also not in the export business.”</p>
<p>You can certainly trade or invest in companies that are in the export
business. One of our main competitors is based in Germany. Guess how
much fun it is competing when you have a very nice currency advantage.
Have you been listening to Airbus screaming about currency rates?</p>
<p>“I’m also skeptical of the 3.3% gdp growth.”</p>
<p>I always take government numbers with a grain of salt. Especially when
it doesn’t jive with what I’m seeing in the charts or the data. There
isn’t the level of gloom and doom where I sit and people are actually
quite upbeat. I know that it’s vastly different in other industries
and a huge number of people feel like we’re in a recession (I’ve been
through several economic cycles in my industry), but there are areas
doing well and they balance the overall number out.</p>
<p>I know how I felt when Wall Streeters and realtors were making tons of
money and my industry was exporting jobs to China, India, Phillipines,
etc.</p>
<p>“Most of our trade imbalance is with China and the oil exporters. Most
of the oil exporting nations tie their currencies to the US
dollar. China does its own thing.”</p>
<p>Our imports from Canada, China, Mexico and Japan were $312B, $323B,
$210B and $144B respectively. Our trade deficits for those four
countries were $99B, $262B, $90B and $86B respectively. Source: US
International Trade Commission. If you add up Canada, Mexico and
Japan, our imports from those three are much higher than our imports
from China and they add up to a little more than our trade deficit
with China. The big difference, of course, is that we expoirt a lot to
those other three countries. It’s interesting that our trade deficits
to countries like Saudia Arabia, Venezuela, Kuwait and traditional
middle-eastern oil exporters is much smaller.</p>
<p>“I’d like to see our dollar do better against the English pound and the
Euro, so it wouldn’t cost $20 to get a hamburger.”</p>
<p>The long-term solution would be to get our manufacturing base and high
value-added services and products up so that we can export to those
other countries.</p>
<p>“The stock market did great in the 80’s and 90’s. The last 10 years…”</p>
<p>Have you studied Dow Theory?</p>
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