I’m an international parent and new here but read many threads about the cutoff prediction. When I saw TS% and SI% tables posted on the CB website, TS% table looks more reasonable than SI% table because I do not believe a 205 SI can be 99%. According to TS% table, 1440 is the bottom of 99+%, 1390 is the bottom of 99%, 1360 is the bottom of 98%, and so forth. It seems that as % goes down, each 1% clusters around only two or three scores. This means there are so many students who got the same TS (but SI may be quite different) below 98%, 97%, 96%,…… As you may know, the possible SI range for each score is as follows.
Score Min Max Score Min Max
1520 228 228 1370 198 213
1510 226 227 1360 196 212
1500 224 226 1350 194 211
1490 222 225 1340 192 210
1480 220 224 1330 190 209
1470 218 223 1320 188 208
1460 216 222 1310 186 207
1450 214 221 1300 184 206
1440 212 220 1290 182 205
1430 210 219 1280 180 204
1420 208 218 1270 178 203
1410 206 217 1260 176 202
1400 204 216 1250 174 201
1390 202 215 1240 172 200
1380 200 214 1230 170 199
My prediction is based on TS% table and the assumption that students are approximately uniformly distributed within each 1%. So, all possibilities are considered like low TS but high SI and vice versa. The cumulative percentiles from my Excel spread sheet are approximately:
220 – 0.31%
217 – 0.48%
211 – 1.05%
206 – 2.05%
203 – 2.94%
200 – 3.93%
…
Again, this is just my individual prediction, not any official one. Remember 220 or above is 0.31% (=.0031x 1.7m = about 5200) still a lot nationally. I guess that the cutoff for commended would be around 203-204 because .0294x1.7 million is about 50,000.