National Merit Cutoff Predictions Class of 2017

Good morning – as some of us prepare for snowmagedden, i wanted to share some data that was released by CobbCounty GA:http://www.cobbk12.org/news/2016/PSAT2015.pdf
Excerpt:
Approximately 47% of Cobb 11th graders took the PSAT.
Statewide, only 28% of 11th graders took the test, and nationally 51% of 11th graders took
the test. Cobb students received an average total score of 1113 exceeding the state and
national averages of 1018 and 1009, respectively. The average Evidence-Based Reading and
Writing (ERW) score was 562, and the average math score was 551.

There are several tables in the results published - here is a bit of info:
Table 2. Eleventh grade PSAT scores for Cobb County School District high schools including
district, state, and national averages.
Number Participation Mean Scores
Test Takers Rate Total ERW Math
Cobb 3,223 47% 1113 562 551
Georgia 30,970 28% 1018 512 505
National Tested: 1,724,416 51% 1009 507 502

To compare the performance of potential National Merit Scholars, Table 3 lists the
average of the top 100 scores for 11th graders at each school. In this comparison, Walton
had the highest total average score of 1453 followed by Wheeler with an average total of
1378.

Here is the 2014 report:
http://media.cmgdigital.com/shared/news/documents/2014/09/11/NatMeritGA.pdf
Walton had about 25 & Wheeler had 14 National Merit semi-finalists in 2014.Pope had 4 and Lassiter had 8.
http://www.fairtest.org/sites/default/files/NationalMeritSemifinalist2016-scores.pdf
The cut off was 218 for GA. Testmaster are estimating GA will go to 216 as a cut off - does that imply a total score range of around 1440-1480 or so?? Does anyone this this strong performance means it is less likely that the cut off will go down from 218 to 216 or does 216 sound about right - or no way to estimate?