@thshadow Thanks - just a glance at that link was eye-opening for me. The scores people chose to post last year were intimidating, too.
I think I’m starting to see how it works. You get the scores, you Google, you find CC, and if your scores look too low you’re gone. If they look average, you read for a bit. If they look good, you start typing like mad.
@Chembiodad yes I got these directly from the GC who was very helpful.
@CA1543 no special prep for the PSAT but probably some prep for the SAT and ACT (e.g. My D took the SAT in Oct so did no PSAT prep). I believe NJ adopted the common core in 2010.
For a regular public school they are a relatively high achieving school - lots of honor and AP options for the motivated.
Thanks @MomNJof2 – appreciate that info!! Good scores there - must be a great program. congrats.
I just found this and have been searching for info for my daughter… but my eyes are getting tired, so I’m just going to ask for help. This is new to me and very confusing. My daughter scored 1440, 99th percentile with a selection index of 215. 36 in reading, 35 in writing and language and 36.5 in math. We live in Pennsylvania. I believe I read that 216 last year was the cut off. What are the chances that 215 will be good enough? Thanks!!!
@superjaco – no one can say for sure – likely a 215 will be close & might be the cut off. Test Masters predicts 216: http://collegeadmissions.testmasters.com/update-psat-scores-cut-national-merit-2016/ and says last year was 217. Fingers are crossed for you - you have lots of company here!
State summaries came out on February 3rd last year. Wonder if they’ll come out tomorrow or if they’ll be delayed and issued in May when the new concordance tables are supposed to come out.
@MomNJof2 thanks for the information. I predicted a NJ cutoff of 225 about 300 posts ago. Looks like I might be close.
@mnpapa29 unfortunately I agree with you - I guesstimated a 224 back in post 707 but now think even that may be low. I am hoping there is a lot of selection bias in the anecdotal info! Maybe the state reports will be more encouraging 
@MomNJof2, agree as with twin DD’s who are siting at 1440/219 and 1460/219 feeling like they are a couple of points short; no, didn’t study, but had done some previously for the 34’s achieved in Sept ACT - they are done testing except for another SAT II and bunch of AP’s. Do we know when state reports are released?
@Chembiodad any anecdotal info from your twins friends?
Holy mackerel! I leave this thread for a while, and there are 1.2k new posts-- low whistle…
@GMTplus7 – yeah - kinda something huh - lots of interesting info and pontifications being shared here! Some actual data too. Join in anytime.
@GMTplus7 - was looking for you around post #2000 - you missed the bus.
@MomNJof2 Your post #2407 “This year, there we two scores at 225 and up, 5 scores at 224 and 3 scores from 220-223. Notice the clumping at 224.”. You reported earlier 1 score 224/1500. So, your child is part of 5 people right? Just want to make sure so I can update my table.
@slparent yes, my D is one of the 5 at 224. Thanks for updating your tables!
Copying my reply to @DOTexe on the parallel thread at http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/discussion/1816872/psat-discussion-thread-2015/p305
Hi @DotExe, it would be very unusual for a single school to have > 25% of the class to be nominated for SF. According to this document, out of ~700 SF, IL Math & Science had 63 SF in 2016 - http://adc.d211.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/2016-Ill-Natl-Merit-Semifinalists.pdf and https://www.imsa.edu/content/63-imsa-students-more-30-senior-class-named-2016-national-merit-semifinalists.
Your school is an excellent candidate to figure out the lowest SI for the student (at 75th percentile) scoring at 1400 TS. Perhaps this data gives hope to true believers (SI Percentiles shown are accurate and representative of actual testers, I am not one), that IL’s cutoff will remain lower or at last year’s cutoff at 215.
Yes, from:
http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/discussion/comment/19250281/#Comment_19250281
@DOTexe said:
Illinois was 215. This anecdote implies 1400 as corresponding to the cutoff. If 1400 is 710M/690V, that’s 209 SI.
My “midpoint” prediction was 211 for Illinois, so this anecdote is on the optimistic side.
Not sure. The problem with “midpoint” SI is that a school like IL Math and Science will have maybe 50% of students at SI >=211. Unlikely. There’s got to be competitive pressure from other schools.
I am happy to take the highest possible SI at 1400 TS and call it quit!
@thshadow, what if any conclusions do you think we can draw from Jed Applerouth’s two charts: 2014 PSAT Curve vs 2015 PSAT Curve? The charts are SIs. (https://www.■■■■■■■■■■■■■■/blog/category/jed-said/)
At the higher percentiles, the 2015 chart looks very similar to 2014. No “local peak” in there. Looks pretty well distributed to me. Somewhat of a smaller range. 2014 had a nice distribution from about 213-240. 2015 had a nice distribution from about 204-228.
If commended was 202 in 2014, you might look at the 2015 chart and guess commended would be around 200. In fact, if you look only at the 2 charts and absolutely nothing else, most people would probably guess the cutoffs would simply be -12 from 2014.
Also, remember that Applerouth got .csv files directly from highs schools who were complaining about “percentile inflation”.
Some people think those of us who are predicting lower cutoffs than testmasters are some how ignoring facts (ie, anecdotes). Well the 2015 chart looks like a fact too.
Again, if you would please, what conclusions would you draw from Applerouth’s charts?