National Merit Cutoff Predictions Class of 2017

Try one more time. I had to change the link. If it doesn’t work, I’ll do in the other way, but that’s a lot of rows.

Something to do with firewall…

OT: @kikidee9 @Mom2TwoDDs @kandjsmom @Speedy2019 etc. For kids who want to go into engineering, the most common SAT Subject Tests requested are Math Level 2 and either Physics or Chemistry. Note that with the split of AP Physics B into Physics 1 and 2, taking the AP Physics 1 class does not cover enough of the topics on the SAT Subject Test in Physics to get a high score.

As far as I know, Georgetown is the only remaining university that asks for 3 subject tests. The max for others is 2, and many don’t need any. Requiring subject tests is major-specific, particularly for publics, such as the UC system.

Subject tests have been a fairly common topic on the Parents of Class of 2017 thread (http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/class-20xx-community/1479899-parents-of-the-hs-class-of-2017.html#latest). Stop by if you need info on subject tests.

@OHToCollege OK, here it is. You should be able to copy this into a text editor and save it with a .csv extension, then open it as a spreadsheet.

Score,Number
227,2
226,5
225,6
224,8
223,3
222,8
221,7
220,13
219,7
218,14
217,10
216,13
215,12
214,13
213,9
212,12
211,7
210,13
209,6
208,11
207,11
206,16
205,7
204,17
203,14
202,16
201,16
200,15
199,13
198,17
197,18
196,21
195,21
194,19
193,22
192,32
191,14
190,23
189,16
188,30
187,22
186,31
185,25
184,26
183,27
182,35
181,26
180,36
179,29
178,37
177,24
176,38
175,28
174,47
173,33
172,51
171,46
170,48
169,36
168,61
167,41
166,50
165,58
164,69
163,44
162,83
161,51
160,51
159,60
158,72
157,71
156,91
155,66
154,64
153,74
152,80
151,63
150,86
149,94
148,86
147,75
146,90
145,82
144,102
143,81
142,75
141,133
140,90
139,112
138,108
137,102
136,117
135,100
134,101
133,96
132,92
131,119
130,112
129,129
128,125
127,120
126,119
125,129
124,140
123,127
122,110
121,162
120,148
119,150
118,108
117,148
116,119
115,151
114,139
113,142
112,118
111,149
110,124
109,129
108,101
107,123
106,68
105,140
104,72
103,109
102,57
101,88
100,41
99,90
98,46
97,56
96,21
95,55
94,21
93,42
92,12
91,40
90,8
89,28
88,8
87,28
86,3
85,13
84,3
83,16
82,3
81,12
80,1
79,10
78,1
77,3
76,5
75,2
74,3
73,5
72,3
71,3
70,4
69,1
68,5
67,5
66,2
65,1
64,4
63,2
61,2
60,1
59,2
58,2
55,1
53,2
51,4
50,2
48,1

@Ynotgo - sadly, quite a few schools require three SAT Subjects for homeschoolers.

Oh right, I forgot to mention the need for more SAT Subject tests for homeschoolers. Good point!

Interesting if you compare Dallas Numbers vs the CB SI percentiles. I didn’t keep going because most in this group are worried about the top percentiles. I’m not a statistician nor to I play one on TV …

Used # at score or lower / total # just like the CB Definition

SI | Texas | CB | # | # At score or lower
227 | 100.00% | 99+ | 2 | 8551
226 | 99.98% | 99+ | 5 | 8549
225 | 99.92% | 99+ | 6 | 8544
224 | 99.85% | 99+ | 8 | 8538
223 | 99.75% | 99+ | 3 | 8530
222 | 99.72% | 99+ | 8 | 8527
221 | 99.63% | 99+ | 7 | 8519
220 | 99.54% | 99+ | 13 | 8512
219 | 99.39% | 99+ | 7 | 8499
218 | 99.31% | 99+ | 14 | 8492
217 | 99.15% | 99+ | 10 | 8478
216 | 99.03% | 99+ | 13 | 8468
215 | 98.88% | 99+ | 12 | 8455
216 | 98.74% | 99+ | 13 | 8443
213 | 98.58% | 99 | 9 | 8430
212 | 98.48% | 99 | 12 | 8421
211 | 98.34% | 99 | 7 | 8409
210 | 98.26% | 99 | 13 | 8402
209 | 98.11% | 99 | 6 | 8389
208 | 98.04% | 99 | 11 | 8383
207 | 97.91% | 99 | 11 | 8372
206 | 97.78% | 99 | 16 | 8361
205 | 97.59% | 99 | 7 | 8345
204 | 97.51% | 98 | 17 | 8338
203 | 97.31% | 98 | 14 | 8321
202 | 97.15% | 98 | 16 | 8307
201 | 96.96% | 97 | 16 | 8291
200 | 96.77% | 97 | 15 | 8275
199 | 96.60% | 96 | 13 | 8260
198 | 96.44% | 96 | 17 | 8247
197 | 96.25% | 95 | 18 | 8230
196 | 96.04% | 95 | 21 | 8212
195 | 95.79% | 95 | 21 | 8191
194 | 95.54% | 94 | 19 | 8170
193 | 95.32% | 94 | 22 | 8151
192 | 95.06% | 93 | 32 | 8129
191 | 94.69% | 93 | 14 | 8097
190 | 94.53% | 93 | 23 | 8083
189 | 94.26% | 92 | 16 | 8060
188 | 94.07% | 92 | 30 | 8044
187 | 93.72% | 91 | 22 | 8014
186 | 93.46% | 91 | 31 | 7992
185 | 93.10% | 91 | 25 | 7961
184 | 92.81% | 90 | 26 | 7936
183 | 92.50% | 90 | 27 | 7910
182 | 92.19% | 90 | 35 | 7883
181 | 91.78% | 89 | 26 | 7848
180 | 91.47% | 88 | 36 | 7822
179 | 91.05% | 88 | 29 | 7786
178 | 90.71% | 87 | 37 | 7757
177 | 90.28% | 86 | 24 | 7720
176 | 90.00% | 85 | 38 | 7696
175 | 89.56% | 84 | 28 | 7658
174 | 89.23% | 84 | 47 | 7630
173 | 88.68% | 82 | 33 | 7583
172 | 88.29% | 81 | 51 | 7550
171 | 87.70% | 80 | 46 | 7499

@idahohusker Shift the percentiles up by one row to use the previous definition of percentile. Then compare to previous tables. We see a lot of compression of top scores (not nearly as many 99+ and 99s as we had before). So to compare with previous SI tables:

228 99.99
227 99.98
226 99.92
225 99.85
224 99.75
223 99.72
222 99.63
221 99.54
220 99.39
219 99.31
218 99.15
217 99.03
216 98.88
215 98.74
214 98.58
213 98.48
212 98.34
211 98.26
210 98.11
209 98.04
208 97.91
207 97.78
206 97.59
205 97.51
204 97.31
203 97.15
202 96.96
201 96.77
200 96.60

Two weeks ago I said Georgia cutoff would be 219 plus/minus one. I’ll stick with that for now…

the second 216 should be 214

@DoyleB not sure I’m following you on your request. The numbers in the second column are calculated. The number of folks at my score and below divided by the total test takers. Isn’t that what the CB is saying with their definition for percentile?

@Speedy2019 well it does until you start to get below about 175 then the Dallas numbers are higher

Did someone previously post the SI percentile calculations for last year’s NM cutoff for each state? Would be interesting to compare to the percentile calculations @DoyleB and @idahohusker just posted.

@idahohusker Your percentiles are the “at or above” type of numbers that CB changed to this year. Prior to this year, the CB definition of percentile in their tables was “above”.

Example: a 227 scored “at or above” 100% of the test takers. A 227 scored “above” 99.98% of test takers.

So to compare directly to previous tables, a 227 should have a value of 99.98%, not 100%. It just shifts the entire column by one row.

However, your definition is correct to directly compare with this year’s published table.

@DoyleB Gotcha … what I was trying to show here was the percentile rank for the Dallas data compared to the CB numbers that were posted in the Understanding Your Scores for this year to see if the SI percentiles were in the ballpark since there was much debate about those numbers since those were based on sample data.

Thanks @candjsdad - I am confirming an weighted mean of 135.6, poor compared with the “Research” sample mean of 148 and a higher Std Dev of 29, compared with 26 for the research sample. TX appears to bring out the best and the worst in our students!

If we believe the new “Texas table”, here’s some example guesses:

TX: 219
FL: 215
IL: 218
GA: 218
CA: 220
MA: 221
NY: 219

All plus/minus 1 (to give us wiggle room)

@DoyleB Aporecuate the estimates. CA is usually about 4 points higher than NY. Fingers are crossed NY will not be higher than 218.

The power of anecdotal evidence can’t be neglected anymore, as testmasters data shows a fat-tail and their underlying assumption of unbiased (representative) data while keeping NMSF constant at 59 in relation to the state’s quota. Goes back to some of our proclivity for taking a school’s “expected” NMSF number and figuring out the lowest SI for the last student expected to be nominated for SF. Concordance be damned!

How about NJ (highest) @DoyleB - any thoughts?

I think this thread will break the CC record for number of posts (whatever that is). I was gone for 8 hours and missed 95 messages!

I got 211 on my NMS score in Maryland and I read the prep scholar Article and I thought I would be good …
BTW, do they still have a separate scholarship for African Americans?