National Merit Cutoff Predictions Class of 2017

You are right -its 90% - but the issue is still the same. Last year based on 90% there were 148 students and this year there were 327.

From 2016 announcement - here: http://patch.com/georgia/woodstock/outstanding-juniors-recognized-superintendents-key-scholars:

The Cherokee County School District annually recognizes outstanding high school juniors as Superintendent’s Key Scholars, and a ** record number ** of students earned the distinction this year by scoring at the ** 90th percentile or above on the Grade 11 PSAT/National Merit Scholarship Qualifying Test.** During the 11th Annual Superintendent’s Key Scholar Recognition Ceremony held on Tuesday, March 22, at River Ridge High School, ** 327 students ** were recognized for their PSAT scores achieved in October, which ranked them in the top 10% of the nation.

From 2015 announcement - here: http://patch.com/georgia/woodstock/148-cherokee-county-students-recognized-key-scholars:

The Cherokee County School District annually recognizes outstanding high school juniors as Superintendent’s Key Scholars, and ** 148 students ** earned this honor for the 2014-15 School Year. Each of these outstanding students has scored at the ** 90th percentile or above on the Grade 11 PSAT/National Merit Scholarship Qualifying Test.**

What 90th percentile are they using? The page 11 SI Table?

I’m very confused. Double the numbers from last year with pretty much the same number of overall testers wouldn’t be top 10%. Last time I checked 2 * 10% = 20%. Maybe we can’t extrapolate that exactly from just one state, but still . . . .

That commended # won’t be arriving too soon, I think. I am in need of some clarity!

I think they took the SI table and sorted by percentile. This year, 90th percentile = 328 students for that district. Last year, the sort by 90% equaled 148 students. Clearly, the percentiles are bogus this year (which is what @doyleb has been saying for months).

@mommesquite Please read this Compass Prep article - it explains it really well. Specifically the percentile section:

http://241nkd2yuifs2cob542atybb.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/Problems-with-the-New-PSAT-Compass-1-27-16.pdf

@mommesquite – Ok - bear with us - if you have not been following this thread – please see this explanation:
http://www.■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■/problems-with-new-psat-part-1-inflation/

and this too (am sure there are others)
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/answer-sheet/wp/2016/01/09/scores-for-new-psat-are-finally-out-what-to-know-about-them-and-what-they-mean-for-redesigned-sat/

The percentiles are not based on actual test takers & are estimates; “national” percentiles are based on estimates of all students - even those who don’t typically take the PSAT. User percentiles - are based on a sample of students who typically take it but not the students who actually took the Oct. 2015 PSAT. Eventually the concordance tables will be updated - not sure if changes will be made to the SI’s listed by College Board as percentiles but maybe. I think many will have reactions when the info finally comes out in Sept and when the state reports are issued -typically those are out by now but College Board is holding them back and may not release for months. :frowning:

so then are we thinking the middle states like illinois, indiana, and so on are going to be drastically higher due to the inflation? I was feeling a bit more at ease until all of this. I can’t imagine CA and NJ staying or going down a point or two from last year but Indiana or South Carolina will go up 8 from last year. Can you?

Re estimates for the NMSF cut off scores – these are some thought to be possiblygood predictions:
http://www.■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■/national-merit-semifinalist-cutoffs/

and this:
http://collegeadmissions.testmasters.com/update-psat-scores-cut-national-merit-2016/
Except they changed Texas to be as high as 219 - not shown on this chart.

I saw those…but people are saying that the middle states are going to go much higher to bring the higher states down. That doesn’t make sense…and maybe I read wrong, but that would be SO sad. I am hoping compass prep has it right. :slight_smile:

@kikidee9 - I really do not think it works that way at all! each state has an allocation of NMSFs based on number of seniors and then it just depends on the number of students with the highest scores – this year might be a little weird bc there may be large clumps of students at certain score levels - I think the cutoffs are likely to be odd number scores bc there are only a few possible half points available on the test and this will help NM make cutoffs that align as closely as possible with the allocation each state has. But as i understand it the allocations are not hard and fast - I think it can change a little year to year.

Got home from work late and tired and pulled out a stack of mail from the mailbox. First letter I see is from College Board. First thought was it must be letter notifying of commended. Son has a 223 and I’m hoping for NMSF but thought they were sending a letter that we crossed the commended hurdle. It was letter notifying of NHRP which was probably the same letter son received by email about 2 weeks ago. The same way College Board sorted the scores to identify the scores for NHRP, is the same way NM can sort the scores to identify commended and NMSF. Instead, we sit and wait…

@paveyourpath – Wow a 223!! huge congrats to your son - must be NMSF! Just a matter of time I think. Thanks for sharing the info :slight_smile: I think NM not CB will notify of NMSF though – in September. Hang in there.

College Board runs NHRP?

So 204 in Ohio is out of the running for anything, huh?

@Grimnak you’re most likely out of the running for NMSF, but you could be a commended scholar.

Oh, I knew about NMSF, but a commended is a possibility? I’d be thrilled with that considering my school blew the whole thing off as “just another standardized test,” completely misguiding us on the test’s value.

@Grimnak Most predictions range from 202-210 for commended status. However, if you don’t get commended, there is nothing to be ashamed of because that is a good score and you will probably do great on the SAT.

My S got a 1510/1520 so he is at 226 , we are in CA, everyone seems to be getting some mail or notification, we have got nothing sofar :frowning:

@StressedinCA – Hughe congrats – that’s extremely impressive. I think your S is very safe for NMSF! No mail could be bc he did not indicate on the form that he wanted colleges to send him info. In any event he should just focus on what’s he interested in for a college search to find programs and the environment he wants. Of course admissions at some of the elite schools has gotten crazy competitive so even students with stellar grades & scores should likely consider a range of schools to apply to. Good luck - be proud & happy with that PSAT score!!

@CA1543 thank you for your kind words, we have got tons of mail from colleges since he opted for it but nothing referencing his National Merit status thusfar…do we need to approach the school?

@StressedinCA - Congratulations! College mailings have no meaning. They said to wide range of scorers to attact more apps. Your S will definitely be a NMSF. Cutoff should be 219-221. My S got 220, so we have our fingers crossed. However we are not dependent on NMF so my S never prepared for PSAT. He took ACT in September and prepared for that.