Looks like Testmasters is sticking by their 219 prediction for Texas (based on comment from today). Fingers crossed for my D.
@itsgettingreal17 âŠI hope testmaster predictions are correct also. We are holding on with a 221 in Texas. I will be SICK if Texas ends up being a 222.
@Tgirlfriend You are golden. 
My D will probably do back flips if she makes NMSF, because then she will only apply to a few schools.
The anecdotal for NJ seems like itâs going to be a high cutoff there, which surprises me b/c the error margin at the 22 plus is so slim. I was also very surprised at the 209 commended cutoff, which I thought would be 2-3 points lower b/c when going through the sub-scores of my Dâs 209 she was coming out at an average of 204 concorded. If I recall correctly the range was 201-206. I think this means the commended cutoff on this test was really a concorded 203/204, which means this test was on the high end historically for commended cutoffs.
Some one predicted cutoff will be an odd # this year due to SI calculations. It is already proven with commended score. So, @Tgirlfriend your D should be safe
If there is a 50:50 chance that one could have a .5 after their math score resulting in an odd number when it is doubled (and then added to the other two scores that are also doubled), then there is the same chance of having an odd SI as an even SI, right? So is it a 50:50 chance or are there more even math scores than odd ones?
@suzyQ7 Yikes, if the NJ/DC cutoff is 224, the cascade effect is horrible. That means CA and MA would be at 223, VA and MD at 222, TX at 221, etc. Letâs hope NJ calibrates at 220! [-O<
Well it is easy to figure out the cut off for each state. For example if someone from NJ is commended and let us say his/her score is 220 then we will know the cut off for NJ NMSemiFinalist has to be higher than 220. We just need people to post their state, their score and the fact they are commended.
@johnqian Commended is 209 for every state. We canât figure out NMSF for any state based on the commended cut off.
@paveyourpath : Let me put it to you in another way. Let us say NJ cut off is at 220 and commended is 209. What do you call a person with a score of 210 for NJ? Remember the person that gets 220 and above (228 max) is semi finalist.
@johnqian I donât think you understand how it works. The commended score only tells us that anyone above 209 is still in the running until September when each stateâs cutoff is announced. A person that is 210âŠstill in the running.
What is the expectation for Illinois?
@pathyourpath That is not entirely true. Historically a handful of states have commended and NMSF scores that have been identical or within a pt or 2. There is no reason to suspect that will not be the case this yr. It is pretty safe to assume that the lowest scoring states will have cutoffs around 209-211.
@itsgettingreal17 What school is she looking at. I am keeping my fingers and toes crossed that it will be above 219 for Texas. @srk2017 I sure hope everyone on here is correct. Our principal got the letter today and I think he was way more excited than we were. I kept telling him to chillâŠit would come because CC parents said the commended was 209 and I trust all of you on here!!! You all may have to talk me off the ledge a few times before September.
@johnqian You call the person in NJ with a 210 commended until the state cut offs are announced.
@Mom2aphysicsgeek You are absolutely right. I shouldnât have said you canât determine any state just by knowing the commended cut off but rather should have said you canât determine âmostâ states.
I thought they werenât even commended until late September, AFTER the SFâs are announced. I believe at this stage they are all (209+) just qualified to move on in the competition.
@PAMom21 Quite accurate. However, I do believe that at this point, a 210 in NJ (as in @johnqianâs scenario), would be safe to assume they are going to be, at the very least commended unless there is a circumstance where they donât fall under the required qualifications. Once the NMSF are selected, everyone else would be commended unless there is a disqualification. I think we can safely say a 210 in NJ as NMSF is not happening.
Yeah, our school (California) just got results for NMSF scholars today, and the Cali cutoff was 209, so I donât believe that a 210 will be the cutoff in NJ.
Isnât 209 same for all states? I thought NMSF cutoffs are different for different states not commended score.
Commended just means roughly the top 50,000 nationwide, which happened to be anyone with 209 or better. The Semi-finalist cut-off WILL vary from state to state and wonât be known til September.