National Merit Cutoff Predictions Class of 2017

Because there are several questions about notification, here is an excerpt from NMSC’s PSAT 2015 Official Guide with link following:

Program Recognition
NMSC uses PSAT/NMSQT Selection Index scores (calculated by doubling the sum of the Reading, Writing and Language, and Math Test scores) as an initial screen of some 1.5 million program entrants. The 2015 test scores of all students who meet entry requirements for the 2017 program will be considered. In the spring of 2016, NMSC will ask high school principals to identify any errors or changes in the reported eligibility of their high scorers (students whose scores qualify them for recognition).

Commended Students.
In September 2016, more than two-thirds (about 34,000) of the high scorers will be designated Commended Students. They will be named on the basis of a nationally applied Selection Index qualifying score that may vary from year to year. In recognition of their outstanding ability and potential for academic success in college, these students will be honored with Letters of Commendation sent to them through their high schools. Although Commended Students will not continue in the competition for National Merit Scholarships, some may be candidates for Special Scholarships offered by corporate sponsors (see page 9). NMSC will notify those candidates in November 2016.

Semifinalists.
Some 16,000 of the high scorers, representing less than 1 percent of the nation’s high school graduating seniors, will qualify as Semifinalists. Only Semifinalists will have an opportunity to advance in the competition for Merit Scholarship® awards. NMSC will notify Semifinalists of their standing and send scholarship application materials to them through their high schools in September 2016. Their names will be sent to regionally accredited four-year U.S. colleges and universities and released to local news media for public announcement in mid-September.

http://www.nationalmerit.org/s/1758/images/gid2/editor_documents/student_guide.pdf

@Mamelot…thank you for the information. I think I have read that 100 times and still get something different out of it each time i read it. May 10th is close…have we heard any updates on anything to do with NMSF? I thought they were going to update the SI table? Was I wrong or did I imagine that?

At a school awards ceremony for one competitive school in Southern CA, they just called names of NMFs quickly, without having them come up to the front stage for applause, even though for all other school awards, they called up every student by name and had them come up to the front stage for applause. I was thinking “Either they shouldn’t mention NMFs or they should have them come up to the front for applause.” That’s how much this school cares about NMFs. To me, many of the other awards were pretty subjective and depended on whether teachers liked you. Note my kid got some of these other “subjective” awards and did not get NMFs, so I am not complaining out of self-interest. I just thought the school’s action showed their desire to downplay NMF status for some reason. Just don’t understand these school staff.

@Tgirlfriend, the College Board says they will provide final PSAT concordance tables in May. Those are still forthcoming. It’s certainly reasonable to expect them around the time of the results from the first revised SAT.

@websensation that’s despicable. I hate it when schools make a decision that academic achievement shouldn’t be mentioned or lauded. It’s a SCHOOL for cripes sake.

@websensation …that is just awful to downplay NMF!! I think that happens in a lot of high schools with academic awards and achievements. My S’s school is that away and makes me furious. If ANY sports goes to just regionals they go all out and have a parade for them however our kids went to UIL State last year and got 3rd with not one word spoken about it from the school. It didn’t even make the newspaper because the school did not tell them. Makes my blood boil to think about it. Keep in mind that the kids in UIL academics go to school at 7 am and sometimes are there until after 8 pm on certain days taking tests and trying to get better scores. Why? So they can represent their schools at State…not that anyone in the school other than a very select few even care. Our Principal is about the only person in our school that cares other than the UIL coaches. OH…I could rant about this ALL day!!! That is one reason I joined this forum because parents and students on here are so up lifting and helpful. Thank goodness that other people understand academic achievements on here!! Rant OVER!! lol

Will the concordance tables give us any useful “prediction” information? I can see them mapping old and new values, and having it all be worthless until they announce cut-offs.

I’m having first-world-problems over here, because I’d like to start college visits, but the places we’ll go will be 80% different depending on NM.

@flatKansas…I feel your pain. We are the exact same way! OU is super high on his list however with OOS tuition that will not be possible without NMF. I am looking at colleges and what they require the students to keep as a GPA for the NMF scholarships and other merit based scholarships. Most are a 3.5…that is crazy high I think for a student. Talk about pressure!!

@flatKansas Have you seen these predictions? http://www.■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■/national-merit-semifinalist-cutoffs/

They seem pretty realistic and not overly optimistic. To be conservative, I’d look at the high end of the range they present.

@Tgirlfriend I think most schools have 3.0 and 3.2 renewal. That will be easier for some majors than others.

One more week till SAT scores come out. Can’t wait to see how my son did and possible they will reveal some new data that will help the math experts on here.

Collegeboard is behind on grading the SAT (optional) essay it seems. I wouldn’t be surprised if results are delayed. But I will be very p***ed.

@Tgirlfriend, I will be watching your post closely, I am sure your boy will get NMF here in Texas. I am sure rooting for him. I want to keep up with his college search. And the NMF scholarship renewal GPAs and see where he lands.

DS is safe by those estimates, but anecdotally we are nervous. His school has a REALLY strange collection of SI scores among the kids who were really prepping. (Its like they ALL got +/- 3 points of each other, but none of them got 5-10 points lower, if that makes any sense? There’s no curve, so he is panicking that they are collectively the edge of the bubble)

@Tgirlfriend high renewal GPAs are a nightmare. My oldest has a 3.5 renewal on hers (not NM) and it was such a stress on her the first couple of semesters. She was doing fine, but it just weighed on her so badly.

We would also be looking at OU if NMF so we’ll be following your posts too!

Without NM the college search just looks so different for us. Its mainly just in-state or Bama (which would be cheaper than in-state, go figure).

S is going to visit OU in June, along with UT Dallas. Both give good NMF scholarships. My H is coordinating the whole thing because he is going (I have to work). He said the National Scholars Program office at OU was very helpful. They are setting up a specialized tour and also arranging for S to talk to the comp sci department. They asked for his tee shirt size too. H has yet to contact the National Merit Scholars program at UT Dallas.

We are in a very similar position re: NMSF. We are big merit money chasing and D is sitting on a bubble SI. Because D has a tough senior year course load, we are not taking our usual vacation and she’s doing fewer weeks of programs so that she can crank out her essays and get apps ready to go before school starts. Unfortunately for her, she’ll need to write essays for all the possibles on her list since won’t find out NMSF until September, but if she does make NMSF, list is going to shrink substantially (like by more than half).

Both OU and UTD are very accommodating to NMSF for tours. They both roll out the red carpet and give nice gifts. S didn’t particularly like the vibe at UTD due to the tour guide. S ended up at USC which has no minimum GPA requirement to keep the scholarship - just have to be making satisfactory progress toward the degree.

You guys check out University of MN as well. Not sure if you are able to accumulate scholarships but if so you might be able to rack up the Gold, the Gold National (if OOS) AND the UMN National Merit which means you are attending practically tuition-free.

http://admissions.tc.umn.edu/nationalmerit/

We did the pre-paid college plan here in florida. So if he goes to one of the in state publics his tuition is covered. But none give much scholarship money for nmsf or nmf that I know of. If they did we could recoup that money for graduate school.