National Merit Cutoff Predictions Class of 2017

Here is something I posted to help those coming behind the class of 2017. I am thankful for how my daughter has worked hard throughout her whole schooling and that she will probably end up at a great private school which offers Full Tuition for NM Commended. She couldn’t go there without that. At the same time, I want others to benefit from what we learned in this PSAT/NM journey with my D15 and D17.

http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/national-merit-scholarships/1892601-to-the-class-of-2018-and-beyond.html?new=1

If you have any advice to add to the younger classes, please do so on that thread. Let’s help those coming behind by sharing what we, parents and students, have learned. Thanks.

@fun1234 that’s going to be a successful confirmation of his PSAT score for National Merit purposes, at the very least. Remember that the SAT is only 15 minutes longer than PSAT now, and that the PSAT is designed to be a better indicator of how someone will do on the SAT than it used to be. Well done to him!

@Mom2TwoDDs - would you mind saying which school your DD is attending? Congrats to her!

@ailinsh1 She will probably go to Liberty. Her sister is there on a NMF full tuition and full room/board scholarship. She loves it and has fantastic and very involved professors. D17 is planning on majoring in ASL Interpreting and possibly getting a masters in Occupational Therapy. She investigated all 15 or so schools east of Texas, we’re in FL, with solid ASL Interpreting programs. We were surprised at how few schools have this major. Her public HS has three years of ASL.

I emailed the CB several days ago asking when the updated concordance tables will be released - since their website says “May”. No response.

By now they’ve issued at least one more PSAT, correct? (PSAT 10) And two SATs. They should have been able to generate finalized tables by now.

Can I ask you all your views on this?

S got an SI 218 on his PSAT – 1460 total (720 R&W, 740 M). S just received his March 2016 SAT scores – 1430 (730 R&W, 700 M). S is applying to engineering school in the fall (VA Tech, Texas A&M, UF, UCF).

Question is, should he retake the SAT? His math is a bit low(er) and he could probably bring it up some, but is it worth all the studying/prep/etc. when he really needs to focus on his IB courses (among other things) at this point.

Thanks folks. You all have been terrific on this thread.

Also – heard that the SAT conformance score for NMSF purposes is (likely) going to be 1390, so re-taking shouldn’t involve that issue. Thanks.

@VABogart where did you here the confirming score may be 1390?

@VABogart I think it might be useful to take it again - I would think he could do better on math. If you look over the detailed report and look at what he missed. Did he make silly mistakes on easy/medium questions, did he miss all the hard ones? It can be useful in narrowning down what he needs to work on.

@VABogart – I think is a solid score but…I am probably throwing a monkey wrench in here…what about the ACT? Both of my kids do/did far better on the ACT (DS was class of 14 and DD is class of 17).

I think grades are clearly the #1 priority. But presumably to retake it he wouldn’t do much (any?) further studying? My daughter sounds very similar to your son - she scored 730M/720V on the PSAT, and got 760M/710V on the March SAT. She’s retaking it, mainly because (a) we had already signed up, and (b) she’s going to “study” only by taking another practice test or two.

Also keep in mind that due to the concordance tables, a new 1430 is equivalent to an old (i.e. the thing in all the common data sets) 2040. So if you’re happy to just “stick”, make sure you properly deflate the new score before deciding that it’s good enough.

Wow – thanks for the prompt responses. :slight_smile:

@suzyQ7 I think I saw someone state a conformance score of 1390 somewhere on this thread. But obviously it’s speculative at this point. It may have been based on what the conformance score was last year and someone may have concorded it to the 2016 SAT.

@Dolemite Great point. He’ll see what he missed and then can decide. I agree he could probably pull a 750 on the math, possibly even a tad higher. While 700 is no disgrace, if he’s applying to engineering school, then . . .

@thinmints We’ll think about the ACT. But he does have a full plate already, and he’s struggling a bit in several IB courses and really needs to place his focus there. In 9th grade, though, he did really well on the ACT, so certainly it’s worth putting on the table.

@thshadow We’re thinking the same thing about grades, and right now he’s really on the knife’s edge in several classes. I did see 1430 on the new SAT, when concorded, as 2060 under the old SAT, on Prepscholar, which said to concord each of the two separate scores rather than the composite score, as the former reveals a more accurate conversion score. When concorded separately, the composite score adds up to 2060.

@VABogart Many engineering programs do require higher scores than are required for non-engineering applicants but you have to balance the pros and cons of an extra 50 points vs sacrificing grades. Maybe he could focus on school for now, get some practice in over the summer and consider retesting in the fall?

@paveyourpath You hit it exactly – is the extra 50 points (give or take) worth possibly sacrificing grades. We’ll see how his year-end grades turn out, and then he can assess from there. He did both PSAT and SAT scores without any prep, so I’m guessing with at least some prep, he’s likely to get the extra 40-60 points.

@VABogart 1430 is a very good score. That will get you an automatic admit at TAMU and that will definitely get you in at VT with no issue. My daughter has not looked at UF and UCF so, but cannot believe that is not good enough to get in. The real question will be is 218 PSAT high enough to get NMF in Virginia( I assumed by your name that is where you live). If not then having higher might help get you money. I know at TAMU if they give you $1000 they will waive out of state tuition and that is worth about $17K/year. I don’t know the policy at UF or UCF. My daughter took old SAT and we retook it to try and get higher CR&M number since not sure she is going to make the NMF cut in N.C. That worked out for us since her score went up and may make a difference. I would also try the ACT since your son might be able to score 34+ on that as well. If he does real well then you can use the score that would give you the best option to potential get money.

@NCComputerNerd Yes, we’re in Virginia. It’s one of the highest cutoffs for NMSF, so only a slight chance that SI 218 makes the cutoff.

S likely will make the decision over the summer. I think taking the ACT is also a good option. And yes, if he gets in one of the out-of-state schools, then any scholarship money offered may make the difference regarding that school.

Another option – UCF offers rolling admissions, so he could apply in September and receive word on admission by the end of September (that’s what we’ve been reading on the UCF thread). Then he could still decide whether to take the SAT or ACT with respect to the other schools.

Thanks for all the great suggestions. As I’ve said, you all have been just terrific with your insights and caring. We’ll let you know this summer which ways S go. Have a great day, everyone. :slight_smile:

The CB hasn’t even released the official PSAT concordance table, so how on earth can the NMF qualifying score even begin to be determined?

what is a 1500 new sat going to be compared to the sat last year. He had a 730 reading/writing and a 770 math

I think the easiest way to guess if an SAT score will qualify for the minimum NMF round is to use the same formula as the PSAT. Test scores are broken down into the same 3 components: math, reading, and writing subscores. Since commended is 209, I would guess if the same formula results in a score above 209, the score is probably high enough. (Not positive, but seems logical to me.)