National Merit Cutoff Predictions Class of 2017

@CaucAsianDad Thanks for the encouraging news on UF and UCF. S has just been accepted into Texas A&M’s summer aerospace engineering camp for high school juniors/seniors (Camp SOAR) and is awaiting word on UCF’s cybersecurity camp, which will take place at the end of July. If S gets in to the UCF camp, we’ll be traveling down to Orlando together for that, as I’ll be taking a class at RTS/Orlando at the same time (July 25-29). Maybe we’ll have a chance to meet if you’re in town and available sometime during that week.

curious question: how likely is it that the CB will make 209 the national merit semifinalist cutoff everywhere and then make the process for finalist more selective? They could still do the top number of kids from each state and this would be way more fair, especially this year with the controversial curves and scoring.

@destined4harvard – interesting idea but I do think it is NOT going to happen. I think the state cut offs are used to have participants from throughout the US and there will be a range of scores bc it is the top students in each state and allocations are based upon the number of graduating seniors each state has.

So I am entering in national merit through the alternate entry program and based on my December SAT score I earned a selection index of 212 with a score of 2010 and my principal told me that CB said I was a “high scorer” and at the least commended. My March SAT score bumped me up to a 213 and my May test (last time I’ll be taking the SAT) might bump me up even more. Is 213 likely going to be enough for semifinalist in Missouri?

@superbowser12 Your score is certainly in the ballpark. Here are what three test prep sites predict:

Compass 213 (actually gives a range of 212-216)
Prepscholar 215
Testmasters 214

We won’t know until September. Commended score is 209, so you at least are commended, and that’s a great accomplishment.

@destined4harvard I really like your idea, but I have to agree with CA1543 that it’s going to be difficult to get CB to change its ways. Your suggestion certainly has validity, though. =D>

As far as I know, you only get one score (one shot) for your alternate entry. Didn’t they tell you which one of your tests counted for that? Semi-officially the cutoff for commended was 209. The numbers for SF wont be announced until September. Compass Prep has estimates of 212-216 for MO.

http://www.■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■/national-merit-semifinalist-cutoffs/

Maybe this random info will be helpful. Talked to my counselor last week (I’m in AL). She said we usually only have a “few” semifinalists every year and very rarely anyone with 220+ on the old psat. She also said that this year our school has “many” students with 220+ scores. She wouldn’t tell me specific numbers but it seems that the new psat is way too easy…

220+ should be good in AL.

@destined4harvard the rules of the competition for class of 2017 have already been posted by National Merit Scholarship Corp. There are no changes this year.

@destined4harvard-College Board does not run NMS.

Thanks for looking I only wish the school didn’t make him take the writing part because now he has to send the optional writing I wonder if since rice university says it is optional will they be judging him by that optional test or should he just take the act and hope he does well in that since that test is optional also

Hey guys do you think a 1480 (220 SI) will be enough to qualify as a semifinalist in MD?
And were we supposed to hear from NMS in April, or do only schools hear about high scorers in April?
Thanks

@pillowspillows my S said something similar of the ~220 at our school. Normally we have quite a few NMSF/NMF, but S felt his group had a LOT of kids with high scores. And KS isn’t known for super high cutoffs for NMSF.

We could just be weird, anecdotal schools. I guess I would have thought commended would have jumped much higher than 209 if there really are so many >220 scores everywhere.

@flatKansas and @pillowspillows Same with our high school. It usually gets 2 NMSFs (possibly 1 or 2 more in a really good year). This year, at least a dozen scored SI 218 or higher. So if history is any guide, I’m guessing that Virginia’s cutoff will be 221. That score seems very high, but anecdotal information on this board and elsewhere seems to support the higher (or highest) cutoffs predicted by Compass.

@gsw1999 Only the schools hear in April about students who will at a minimum be National Commended Scholars.

The question would be how many are actually higher than 218. For VA, that SI might be right below the cut-off.

@Mamelot Yes, good point. In speculating, I was using the Testmasters chart for the sampled TX scores – it seems there’s nearly twice as many scores placed at SI 218 and 220 than on 219 and 221, due to the PSAT’s scoring scheme. (There also appears to be the same number scoring at 218 as 220.) So if 12 received scores of 218 or higher, I was figuring 4 would score 218, 2 would score 219, four would 220, and two would score 221 or higher, for a cutoff of 221 (if our school gets its usual number of 2 NMSFs). But it’s certainly possible the scores are all scrunched at 218 (that would be my hope, however faint it may be). When you hear a lot of the anecdotal info, though, it seems the cutoff scores seem to be trending toward the higher/highest end of the Compass predictions. Having said that, I’d be astonished to see DC and NJ’s cutoff at 224. I mean, imagine scoring a phenomenal SI 223, and still not making the NMSF cutoff. What a major bummer. :-w

@nw2this…we visited 22 campuses but most weren’t National Merit Campuses. Minnesota (my alma mater) was a campus that awarded large National Merit scholarship, but didn’t make short list due to cold. Purdue was a visit with nominal National Merit scholarship and nominal interest from my son. We found them to be indifferent, highly uncommunicative at the admissions and department level and a pass despite many positives. We enjoyed USC but son didn’t get in.

Is it possible that revised PSAT concordance tables have been released to schools (but not on the CB website)? I found this article dated May 18th:

http://www.ode.state.or.us/news/announcements/announcement.aspx?ID=13875&TypeID=4

Edited to add - I think they must have received something because if you look at this page link (Page 2) there is discussion about waiting for final concordance. I don’t actually quite follow the numbers (they keep referring to 24) but am still absorbing this content.

http://www.ode.state.or.us/superintendent/priorities/5.g-essential-skills-psat.pdf

@suzyQ7 Well that is interesting! Seems so.

@suzyQ7

Hmmm – you may well be right – they are comparing the prelim scores to final concordance and noting"

“Because the final concorded reading score is the same as the preliminary concorded score, the reading achievement standard on the revised PSAT is 24 and is effective immediately for all students.
Because the final concorded math score is 24.5, but the preliminary concorded score was 24, AESRP will convene on June 1 with plans to develop a recommendation …”

Dont know what it means yet at the higher levels but hopefully we’ll see the tables released soon.