National Merit Cutoff Predictions Class of 2017

@flatKansas - I had one child in marching band so I understand taking SAT now.

@CA1543 - I am not a fan of endless testing so unless the boy is in the running for NMF I can’t see any reason for him to ever take the SAT. I’m glad he got an exceptional ACT score so as long as he did ok on his subject tests he can be done with testing. He feels like he did well on the subject tests (Chem and USH).

I am not a fan of CB and the less money we pay the better.

My D2 was offered the $11,000 Knight’s Achievement (OOS) this year with an SAT of 1960 and an UW GPA of 3.6. She took three AP’s this year as a senior but at the time she applied she only had one AP under her belt (but it was a 5). She also applied to School of Vis. Arts as opposed to Engineering or Business and there was no honors track for her major so Burnett was out of the question. Still, they offered her a pretty good scholarship in my view, especially considering that their OOS tuition isn’t all that high compared to many other state colleges. They really seemed to want OOS students. She even had the option of joining the OOS LLC and getting a single room!

@Mamelot That’s really good to hear about UCF. S would be thrilled if he got admitted to UCF with a scholarship opportunity, as he hopes to graduate with zero debt (or at least minimal debt). Hope he gets into UCF’s summer cybersecurity camp in July.

@Mom2aphysicsgeek Son and I recently attended one of those college tour road shows that came to our area. There were 5 schools present and the panel was asked if they were all accepting both old/ new SAT. All said yes but they did not yet know how they would interpret those scores. They said they would figure it out in the fall.

@Proudpatriot You’re son is not alone. My son will only take SAT if he needs it to confirm for NMSF. Many with your son trying to avoid the new SAT, if possible. Would be nice if NM would accept the old SAT so kids don’t have to test just to confirm a score for NM.

@paveyourpath NM will be accepting old SAT scores to confirm. No one knows what that score will be this year.

Posting this link from the concordance thread. CB’s guide to the concordances.

My favorite line: “A preliminary set of concordance tables will be released for the redesigned PSAT/NMSQT in winter 2015. Since the redesigned PSAT/NMSQT is scaled to the redesigned SAT, some small adjustments to the PSAT/NMSQT concordance may be necessary once the scaling of the redesigned SAT is nal in March 2016.”

https://collegereadiness.collegeboard.org/pdf/college-board-guide-implementing-redesigned-sat-concordance-installment-3.pdf

Personally, I believe when the test format and scoring schemes have changed, the scoring organization (CB, duh) need to release student’s relative ranking to that test itself (by factoring in entire test population, not some user group and representative group crap). That way there’s absolutely no doubt how a student performed relative to other test takers from that first administration of the new test. I also don’t believe that the test takers for the March test were particularly academically driven and the sample in any way reflects anything other than the norm.

Having said that, my daughter’s 1540 March SAT test represents 99%ile nationally representative/user, 760 EBR 99%ile, and 780 Math 99/98%ile resp. She made significant strides as she went from 1440 in PSAT to 1540 SAT and she is done with CB, but will attempt once more to improve her science/essay scores on ACT.

@paveyourpath Virginia Tech is only taking New SAT for class of 2017.

@NCComputerNerd Yes, I’d heard that! Thanks for sharing because that is important to note. My son is not applying to Virginia Tech but it’s worthwhile to share so that everyone is aware. It’s surprising in this transition year that they don’t accept both.

@VABogart
I know the UCF scholarships are generous, but Burnett Honor program is a big plus at a school that size, especially the priority registration. UCF is projecting to grow to 68,000 students by Fall of 2018, they are also trying to grow their research, which could get them better state funding.

http://www.orlandosentinel.com/features/education/os-ucf-enrollment-projections-20160527-story.html

I would imagine they would get more aggressive recruiting high stats kids to balance the growth, which will probably be in the bottom half of the stats range.

What I have heard indicates Burnett accepts those in the top 10% of the incoming freshman class. UCF is stats based, but I do not know how they weight GPA/SAT in determining the top 10%. I told you earlier that a 1430 and a good GPA may get your S into Burnett, but if there is a chance he could increase that score by 50, maybe he should retake it.

BTW, I know several graduates of RTS, if you are in town, let me know.

@CaucAsianDad Thanks for your response. I’d like S to think about re-taking the SAT over the summer – it may depend in large part on his GPA and junior final-year grades. S will be hearing from UCF soon about whether he got in the UCF cybercamp (July 25-28). If he gets in, I’ll accompany him down to Orlando that week, as I’ll be auditing an RTS class. I’d love to connect with you if we make it down there for UCF/RTS at that time – we should know by the end of June.

Okay, tired of my self imposed exile. Just returned from D.C. and the spelling bee and a couple of college tours. I see CB still not giving out any info that might help determine cutoffs. Agree that it is done with the purpose of keeping the knowledgeable on here from figuring out cutoffs. I don’t know why they would care,but it’s obvious they do.

Does anyone here have any tables to convert from the new SAT to the PSAT? Missed October’s administration for the PSAT so I ended up sending my recent SAT score instead.

@VABogart More info on Burnett:

http://www.orlandosentinel.com/features/education/school-zone/os-ucf-admission-data-fall2015-post.html

"At UCF’s Burnett Honors College, the average enrolled freshman has an

Average SAT score: 1400 in reading and math.

Average ACT: 31.6

Average GPA: 4.4"

The GPA is weighted, obviously. :slight_smile:

And the SAT scores are the “old” SAT.

@3boystogo Thanks for the info!

@snicks1234 – nice to see you again! I have too lost faith in CB - am frankly now angry that colleges give any weight to their tests - SAT, AP or subject tests – the more I learn, the less I feel they are about helping students and colleges determine readiness for each other. yet the students have little choice but to subject themselves to this crazy, changing testing environment where their scores can be debated as much as the whole climate change debate is going.

There is a very specific way the state universities in FL calculate GPA.

@CA1543 yes, it makes you wonder. Even though we have considered having S take ACT also we have become hesitant because of all the negative instances of very low essay scores. Then I have heard of parents asking for rescores and receiving better scores. Makes me worried of the legitimacy of the whole essay scoring process. I read my sons essay and I thought it covered all the rubics and was insightful and plenty long. Then,what do I know.lol! They are the “experts” after all. He got a 17 out of 24. Good enough.

@CA1543 And thank you for the welcome.

Art at Compass Prep mentioned the updated concordances in comments again. Says he plans to do a write-up soon, but it doesn’t change his estimates. Also says “CB is planning on publishing the update June 3” which I assume just means officially releasing the numbers that people have already found?