@Mamelot Thank you for your response. Do you know where I can find graduation numbers?
<<the 2015="" number="" of="" commended="" is="" 37,705="" and="" nmsf="" 16,307.="" that="" 54k="" students="" so="" nm="" doesnât="" cut="" it="" off="" right="" at="" 50k.="" the="" sf="" exceeded="" 16k="" number.="">>
Comparing to the 2014 competition, the number of commended was 36,948 and the number of SFâs was 16,227 for a total of 53,175. So it was a bit over then as well.
This might have to do with the fact that they need to dip down past 50,000 in order to get SFâs in the lowest cut-off states. That commended number is a national number so you have to include ALL the kids across the US who got that number. That will obviously raise the number of selected a few thousand at minimum.
Example: Letâs say that 203 is the real cut-off for about 50,000 kids. But 203 is still too high for Wyo, WV, etc. and if itâs announced as the commended those states would have zero SFâs. In order to include them you need to lower the commended number to 201. Obviously thatâs going to include several thousand more kids in other states who also scored 201 and 202.
Itâll be interesting to see how different these numbers all turn out with this new test. The distribution looks weird based on the Houston ISD data set; however, the NMSC rules for the 2017 competition are pretty much the same as theyâve been. Furthermore, betcha dollars to doughnuts that NMSC knows the cut-offs for each state by now and most likely knew it before they acknowledged the 209 Commended number.
@itsgettingreal17 Sâs school also indicates a higher cutoff in Virginia. His high school usually has 2 or 3 NMSFs. This year, 12 students scored SI 218 or higher (S got 218). Assuming that not all 12 scores were 218, I used the Testmasters graphed data to speculate that the Virginia cutoff could be 221 (4 students with 218, 2 with 219, 4 with 220, and 2 with 221 or higher). Thatâs still within Artâs (Compass) predicted range of 217-221 for the state. Would love to believe that Virginiaâs cutoff is 218; just think that 221 is more realistic. But we can still hope. [-O<
@Ldoponce you should be able to find them on each stateâs department of education website but thatâs a bit tedious. In the past College Board released a State Summary PSAT Report for each state and those should include numbers of graduating. Hereâs the link for last yearâs. Unfortunately CB has changed the timing of the release of this report now from February to Aug/September.
I was just thinking - the commended cutoff may be higher than was expected (209 vs 207 that compass had estimated) since the test is easier at the lower level. The bell curve (as we know) has shifted to the right. The KEY for NMS to set the commended cutoff is West Virginia, North Dakota and Wyoming, states that generally have few or no commended students because all the students that meet the commended cutoff are the top students for those states. Perhaps this time, they didnât have to do that since more kids in ND, WV, and Wyoming scored high enough that they can actually have some commended students in those states.
What Iâm trying to say is that just because the commended cutoff is higher than estimated, doesnât mean that the top cutoffs are going to be higher than estimated.
Between Class of 2014 and Class of 2015, New Jersey had more students that were eligible to for NMS while at the same time had less students commended and SF. Not sure how that math worked out⊠Its supposed to be proportional allocation.
saw somewhere the total commended and SF was around 54k. I recall hazily that there were about 1.6 mill + eligible testers so this seems about right: around the top 3%. The increase from prior years is probably due to the greater number of testers although it may be they to increase the pool a bit to meet the quotas in the low scoring states.
I thought the number of testers had nothing to do with it. I thought it was completely based set number of students (~50K) proportionally allocated based on on the number of high school students in each state. So in states where there are a lot of Juniors, but those Juniors donât sit for the PSAT, the allocated number would not change. Thatâs what I thought, anyway.
Iâm correcting my own post, LOL, after thinking about it. The * allocation * is based on what I said above about proportional allocation of juniors (so the total number of commended and SF for each state) but the column in the report labeled â2015 Program Entrantsâ could fluctuate based on how many students decide to actually sit for the test. So, because more NJ students sat for the 2015 test, it doesnât mean NJ gets more SF and Commended.
For the benefit of new viewers and also as a refresher:
The current rules for the 2017 NM competition are unchanged from prior years. They will choose approximately 50,000 top scorers (NB: that number may go over 50,000 by a few thou if low cut-off states are hovering at the commended number. Or it may be closer to 50,000 if @suzyQ7âs thoughts are on target for what this year might look like . . .). From that number, approximately 16,000 will be chosen as SFâs from each state according to that stateâs allocation which is a number based on the proportion of graduating seniors, and the rest will be commended scholars. Note that the allocation has nothing to do with how many juniors sat the test in that state. if 1% of the graduating class of 2017 are in a particular state, that stateâs allocation of SFâs will be 1% of the 16,000.
The 16,000 is approximate. The cut-off will be determined by the score resulting in the best approximation of the stateâs allocation (it may overshoot, or undershoot, the exact number). Everyone at that score and higher will be deemed a NMSF in that state.
Does it bug anyone else that the NMSF number of 16307 is knownâŠWhich means they have completely decided the issue and yet will not release the information for at least 2 more months?
Where do you get 16307 as decided?
16307 SFâs is from the class of 2015. They donât even have the annual report for class of 2016 yet - never mind class of 2017!
hey @Mamelot , Iâve seen that CB is not going to use âadministration dataâ for the PSAT until 3 years of administered tests. This past yearâs scores were based on the research sample and perhaps the spring SAT percentiles âback mappedâ onto the PSAT. The next two years will likely use the same sort of score modeling for the PSAT. I believe CB is using a research sample for its scaling of the spring SATs, too. Basically, for the PSAT and SAT, until 3 years of administrations have passed, the research sample will factor into the score scaling and percentile cutoffs. â3 year rolling basis,â CB says.
@BCSBwisom - huh. Can you post a link to that information? That would totally make sense and thatâs what I was thinking they would do. However, the PSAT score report now contains the following information:
âFall 2015 percentiles were set based on a research study. Fall 2015 benchmarks were preliminary benchmarks. Benchmarks have been finalized for Spring 2016 assessments and forward, and user percentiles will now be based on administration data.â
So I wonder if itâs going to be rolling or 100% administration?
Have they already announced the commended students? If so, does anyone know what the cutoff was for Maryland?
Commended is 209 for the entire country.
Oh ok, I got 220 but havenât heard anythingâŠhow do they let the students know?
Not sure NMSC notifies students of commended status. My daughterâs school called each of the kids who is at least commended into a special meeting and let them know they are national merit kids. They have to wait until September to find out who are semi finalists and who are commended (though if you have a 209, you will be commended in Ohio). No one really knows where the new state cutoffs will be for any states because they changed the PSAT this year. I have friends at other schools who have over a 209 who havenât heard anything. Depends on the schools I guess.
Looks like you are at least in the ballpark for Maryland. According to prediction linked below, projected cutoff for Maryland is 220 (you would be a SF) with an expected range from 218-222. Like a lot of people here, you will need to wait until September to know for sure. Good luck.
http://www.â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â /national-merit-semifinalist-cutoffs/
@saillakeerie Thanks for the info!
I have a question about NMF that is specific to the high school class of '17.
D took the (new) PSAT in the fall of 2015. Letâs say her score is high enough to qualify her as a NMSF. In order to be a NMF, she has to take and do well on the SAT. So if she took the (old) SAT in January 2016, and did exceptionally well, will that qualify? (Even though she took the new version of the PSAT and the old version of the SAT?) Or might they require that she also take the new version of the SAT? (Please say that wonât be necessary!)
Does anyone know the definite answer on this one?