National Merit Cutoff Predictions Class of 2017

If I remembered correctly, the person who had the cutoffs mentioned something like a page with the numbers for each state?

Art seems to be interpreting that post as the cut-off for Kentucky is 215, but that wasn’t exactly what the poster said.

Still, looks promising that his estimates are in the ballpark!

@texaspg Well, all Mary said was “Scores are in, Kentucky 215. Thanks for all of your patient advice as we anxiously awaited. The news. Your prediction are very close.” So I don’t know what she means by that? Is 215 the cutoff for Kentucky or did it just merely qualify for NMSF? She was very ambiguous with her answer and so I don’t know if we can trust that single piece of information.

I can see Art’s confusion - it was unusually worded and could go either way.

Edit to add: agree with @garyasho. Let’s see if Mary responds to Art’s request for confirmation.

If she did receive a letter, it’s just one data point. All it tells us is that Kentucky <=215.

@garysho - this was for last year or the year before. i think there was someone with a piece of paper with cutoff scores for all of the states.

@texaspg Oh haha, that makes more sense.

Art’s prediction for Kentucky is 214 and one score reported is 215.

Last year’s thread included one poster with accurate cut-off info. and another with a bogus confirmation score. Both claimed to have access to the same “guide”. Beware those who try to have a little fun with our nerves.

Mary needs to get back to Art before anyone can figure out what she meant or whether it’s legit. Not clear she meant that she received a letter or what.

That was @Dookster with last year’s accurate information. ^:)^

Kentucky poster seemed to indicate that her 215 was NMSF not that it’s the cut-off score.

It’s hard to tell what Mary is talking about. I also feel that she is talking about a single score, but then she says “Your prediction are [sic] very close,” which would make sense only if talking about a cutoff.
If she is talking about a single score, that would tell us little about Art’s prediction since cutoff could be anywhere from 209 to 215.
If she is legit, my guess is that she is referring to a single score and, because it happens to be close to Art’s prediction, thinks that it confirms his prediction, not understanding that it doesn’t.

Think about how we are trying to figure out the cutoffs. How would she know the state cutoff? More likely that she knows her kid’s score and that he received a letter.

But she said “scores.” Instead of score. Hmm. Possible that she has two kids and only one received the letter.

If anyone who (home schooler or one who finds out from their school) has a score in Art’s range – http://www.■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■/national-merit-semifinalist-cutoffs/
and does not get an NMSF letter or gets negative news from their GC (which of course we hope is not the case), please report it here as well. The actual state by state cut-offs are not being reported officially so we are trying to “back into” them. Example --we hear that 215 is NMSF in KY but does anyone have a 214 (or below) as a homeschooler (may not be able to tell till mid-next week or later as the snail mail letters may take awhile) or regular high schooler and knows they are not NMSF? Thanks to all who share their info!

Yes, from the poster from Kentucky Art’s prediction looking very close. Yes it might not be the cutoff and it might be lower than that but most unlikely considering 209 is the commended. I am hoping based on Art’s prediction is IL will be 217, so, looks like odd number will be the cutoff from most states as apparently not many are with odd numbers! As I stated in my Daughter’s school in IL 12 children scored exactly 218 and 10 children from 219 to 228 (at least 1 perfect we know off in these10!). May be IL will end up with 217 (which again very close to Art’s prediction!)

Moved.

Our whole thread has been shut down?

I actually think the other thread was shut down. I had it bookmarked and it is gone, but we can still post in this one.

Well I hope our thread can stay alive for predictions and conversations we we share info. But if there is some finality on SI confirming scores by state, another thread that can be reported on as well it might help others.

It looks like the other thread is pinned to the top of the National Merit Scholarships forum, and for some reason a non-pinned copy shows as locked.

So, http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/national-merit-scholarships/1914817-class-of-2017-nmsf-nmf-qualifying-scores.html#latest is the thread for actual reports and keeping track of cutoffs and this thread (which has been moved to the same forum but not pinned) is for discussion.