National Merit Cutoff Predictions Class of 2017

@suzyQ7 - Thanks for that explanation. So that still seems to me like it unfairly raises the bar even more than it would normally be for DC students. Seems like it would be “fairer” to set the cut for DC based on the average of MD and VA … would still be high, but not as high. But yeah, sucks to be in a tough school district in NJ…

In reference to walking off a cliff while playing Pokemon Go: I HATE it when that happens.

On the fairness issue - it bothers ME that math is underweighted. Of course, that may be because my child is better at math!

Keep in mind that the current PSAT SI calculation is really no different from prior years AND that the newfangled “Total Score” this year could have been devised from any of the old tests. Nothing really changed except that when they decided to weigh the math and non-math sections 50/50 to make the Total Score everyone decided that this weighting should also apply to the SI. It has NEVER been thus applied. Back in 1979/80 when there were only two sections on the PSAT your Selection Index was 2*V + M. With the revision in the 90’s or 2000’s (forget which) they added the writing section but verbal was still weighted twice Math. Now they have revised yet again and the verbal is still weighted twice math.

What’s nice for the STEM kids now is that the Total Score takes into account a higher weight for Math (interestingly returning again to the “olden days” when there were simply the two sections V and M). For the SAT this is significant because it weighs Math more heavily from a college admissions standpoint. And that, my friends, is really what matters.

The test has always been extremely unfair to top scorers. Granted, the scale went higher in past years, but my son lost 11 points for one math question, and one writing question his sophomore year. His math error was absolutely a stupid mistake, as he’d earned an 800 on the SAT when he was just 11. The PSAT (or the SAT for that matter) did not go high enough to show what he could do. Fortunately he nailed the 80 for junior year, but missing one question in math that year would have made the difference between a $144,000 scholarship and no scholarship, not to mention that living 1 mile down the road would have done the same thing.

On the fairness issue - NMSC stands for National Merit Scholarship CORPORATION. They decided a long time ago what “qualifications” were important to them and how they wanted to award students across the country and designed their competition accordingly. When my DD(12) took the test, there were 2 English sections of 800 points each and 1 Math section worth 800 points, hence, still weighted in favor of the English student. DS(17) is certainly better at Math, but thank goodness he’s pretty good at English, also. With a 218 in MS, we made it (and yes, I know, I said “we”!)

Best of luck to everyone! These high scorers who don’t make the cutoff in the high cutoff states, I do feel bad for you. But I hope and believe that the colleges and universities out there are going to recognize their scholastic talent and award them accordingly.

Just a word of hope to those who don’t get NMSF/NMF, you can get significant merit money without that designation. Our first kid wasn’t NMF, not even close really, and things still worked out fine. Most kids at Harvard weren’t NMF and somehow it worked out for them. Don’t fret too much - there’s plenty of time for that during acceptance season.

Agreed @Mamelot. Many schools disregarded the writing section of the old SAT but not all of them. Criticism of the weighting of verbal heavier than math is as old as the change back in the 80s as is criticism of the state by state cutoff. My mantra on this (and boy was it hard last year) “Their contest, Their rules” If I didn’t like the rules, I did not have to “let” my son enter.

@DartDart-The people who run the competition set the rules and they decided that they wanted representation from all over the US. It’s their competition and they set it up to get the results they want. It doesn’t have to be fair.

I am not trying to be snarky but some things just aren’t fair and you have to accept them.

D in Utah came home with letter from NMSC given to her by counselor…Not helpful here but her 220 in Utah is good to go. We are counting on the $$$$ so huzzah!

I agree that getting 800 in SAT math does not mean that you are talented in math/science. I got 790/800 long time ago in SAT math (and got something like 660 in English 5 years after I immigrated to US) but I am not talented at all in math or science. I thought I was good in math based on my SAT math score and tried to major in EE/Physics in college but I kept on getting really bad grades, so I switched to English Literature major to be able to avoid failing and graduate, and lo and behold, I got As without trying that hard as an English Lit major.

There is no way SAT math can weed out those kids who are really talented in math. I remember my friend who was really good in math who also got 800 in SAT math – he finished the math test in 10 minutes whereas I barely finished the math section on time. He went on to get all As at one of the best engineering colleges in the US, whereas I almost flunked out as an engineering major at another college.

@Proudpatriot Nothing is fair in life…yeah we get that. Again, I said I have an issue with how the College Board scores the test and how they’ve not made it a fair achievement test for top scores (which is what we are talking about in the case of NMS). There is not enough differentiation at the top, period. I have no problem with NMS Corp and they can run their contest how they see fit.

I think all these kids that are NMSF or close are BOTH Math and English kids and not just one because they score slightly lower on one section than the other :slight_smile:

That wasn’t what I responded to above. I mentioned a specific person and was responding to his/her comment.

@suzyQ7 Most educated people know that getting high scores in standardized tests don’t mean you are talented in any area; for me, it just shows you can read and add numbers. But the standardized test do not test creativity, passion, character and belief in yourself, which are more important factors for success. Some of my best employees were people who did not score high on standardized tests or do well in school. Some may not agree with me, but I had my own way of testing my employees other than looking at their academic scores.

It is true that you don’t need NMSF to get good merit based aid. My oldest missed NMSF by one point and still got good merit based aid at a good school

@nutmeg_shippy This afternoon my daughter asked her principal if he could confirm her status (as either Commended or NMSF) so she can update her college application before submitting it. He said he had not received the letter yet but plans to call the students to his office when he gets it. We are in the Austin, TX area.

My daughter took this test (PSAT-NMSQT) as a sophomore and got a 218 SI. For those of you whose kids took the test in 10th grade, I’m wondering if you remember how much his/her score improved when they took the test again in 11th grade? She has been practicing somewhat…but who knows how much is enough?? We really need the potential scholarships that NMF can receive at some schools. :-S BTW – we are in TX, so qualifying score is probably around 220.

On the issue of how the SI is constructed - not complaining…not even really concerned about fairness. It is what it is. My kid’s score on math was considerably higher than the english but if the scores had been reversed, she’d probably have hit the cutoff (less competitive state). Yes indeed, I use the terms tech kid and nontech kids loosely. So sorry if someone found that insulting.

@youcee, At Harvard and similar schools, if your family doesn’t have that much money and you are accepted, they will find a way to give you all the money. If your family is not well off and you get into an Ivy, you won’t have to pay that much because they will give you grants etc to get through.