National Merit Cutoff Predictions Class of 2017

Paying for College Financial Aid (Need-Based, Merit Aid, Loans)
1501

@CA1543, at your request. Just for TX
2012 219 99.31%
2013 216 99.08%
2014 220 99.29%

1502

@CA1543 I was just waiting for someone to ask:

    2014    
State/Locality  Cut-Off Percentile

1 North Dakota 202 97.0%
2 South Dakota 202 97.0%
3 West Virginia 202 97.0%
4 Wyoming 202 97.0%
5 US Territories 202 97.0%
6 Arkansas 204 97.0%
7 Montana 204 97.0%
8 Alaska 206 98.0%
9 Utah 206 98.0%
10 Idaho 208 98.0%
11 Iowa 208 98.0%
12 New Mexico 208 98.0%
13 Oklahoma 208 98.0%
14 Wisconsin 208 98.0%
15 Alabama 209 98.0%
16 Missisissippi 209 98.0%
17 Missouri 209 98.0%
18 Nebraska 209 98.0%
19 Kentucky 210 98.0%
20 Michigan 210 98.0%
21 Louisiana 211 98.0%
22 Maine 211 98.0%
23 Nevada 211 98.0%
24 South Carolina 211 98.0%
25 Rhode Island 212 98.0%
26 Tennessee 212 98.0%
27 Indiana 213 99.0%
28 Kansas 213 99.0%
29 New Hampshire 213 99.0%
30 Florida 214 99.0%
31 Hawaii 214 99.0%
32 Minnesota 214 99.0%
33 Vermont 214 99.0%
34 Arizona 215 99.0%
35 Colorado 215 99.0%
36 Illinois 215 99.0%
37 North Carolina 215 99.0%
38 Ohio 215 99.0%
39 Oregon 215 99.0%
40 Delaware 216 99.0%
41 Pennsylvania 217 99.0%
42 Georgia 218 99.0%
43 New York 219 99.0%
44 Washington 219 99.0%
45 Connecticut 220 99.0%
46 Texas 220 99.0%
47 Maryland 222 99.0%
48 Virginia 222 99.0%
49 California 223 99.0%
50 Massachusetts 223 99.0%
51 DC 225 99.5%
52 New Jersey 225 99.5%
53 Outside US 225 99.5%

1503

Might be better to use 2013 data (class of 2015), because you have actual percentile cuts for those. They never officially released 2014 data for that, did they? (If you are using the 2014 report, that’s actually 2013 data.)

1504

Thanks @dallaspiano – that’s exactly what I was interested in seeing - can you remind me where that info can be obtained for each state? I think that could help us if we construct a chart like @addgap’s in Post 1261: http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/discussion/comment/19215449/#Comment_19215449
Does this make sense?

1505

Also, I’m not sure whether this is helpful or not, but Delaware (SI = 216) is about the 51st percentile in terms of #'s of NM’s (based on the NMSC annual report NM #'s). That’s about the halfway point in terms of #'s, not SI. For SI it’s 213.

Is there any reason to think the general ranking I have in #1501 won’t hold for this year?

1506

Thanks mamelot!!!

1507

@CA1543, since I am in TX so I crunched that number about 2 weeks ago
For other states, you probably go up or go down a little bit and use TX as reference. Not to be exact but very close

1508

@Mamelot That’s close, but not quite. Here’s the problem. The SI tables are published a year after the fact. You published last year’s cutoffs - the place you would need to look those up would be in this year’s tables. But this year’s test is different, and the published data is not from last year, so you’ve got no place to look them up.

You need to get the cutoffs from two years ago, and look those up in last year’s SI table. You could also look up cutoffs from 3 years ago in the SI table from two years ago. When you do that, you’ll find that a lot of the apparent variation in a state’s cutoff will disappear - the cutoff will be very near the same percentile each time, even though the number may have changed by 2-3 points.

Example:

GA cutoff from 1 years ago - 218. No place to look that up.
GA cutoff from 2 years ago - 215. That was the 3rd from the bottom of the 99s.
GA cutoff from 2 years ago - 217. That was the 3rd from the bottom of the 99s.
GA cutoff from 2 years ago - 214. That was the 4th from the bottom of the 99s.

Edit: @PAMom21 makes the same point.

So if you trust this years’s SI table, GA’s cutoff will be 207 or 208. Which I believe is way too low.

1509

That would be really interesting. A chart showing what the historic state cutoffs are in terms of the percentiles of SIs. I was just considering that myself. When one poster stated she believed the cutoff for CA would be 99.6%, I looked back on Understanding 2014 PSAT scores and see the CA cutoff was the last score still in the 99% (I think). Only scores 224 or above were listed at 99+%. If any one understands statistics it would be interesting to know what the percentile of their state’s historic cutoff to the tenth or even hundredth. Is that possible? I would be interested.

1510

I see it now. I love it. You guys are amazing.

1511

@mamelot - Thanks!!! Just so we understand – in 2014 – Cal & Mass – 99%ile at 223 as is Indiana & Kansas at 213% – so this is 99-99.4? and 99.5% was 225? 99%ile lowest SI was 213? I wonder – how is this matching up with the data reported by @addgap for this year in Post 1261?? http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/discussion/comment/19215449/#Comment_19215449
What is our best “concordance”?

And as @dallaspiano shows over a few years there is a range of percentiles & cut-offs so it is impossible to get very precise (as we already know).

1512

Now we are talking. Please see http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/discussion/comment/19186559#Comment_19186559, page 275 post #4125

1513

@Mamelot thanks!

1514

Excuse my cut/paste error. Last two entries are 3 years ago and 4 years ago.

1515

@DoyleB, @CA1543, @PAM21 if I can make time I’ll revise and post the table so it’s year-consistent betw. the percentiles and the cut-offs. I had put this together for my own analysis so wasn’t worrying about that (because MN doesn’t move much year-to-year :slight_smile: ). In all honesty it might not affect many states but it will affect some.

People should also just provide, as did @dallaspiano the historical information for their own state so someone can combine it in a table here.

1516

Thanks @DoyleB – @addgap & @dallaspiano * @thshadow – can we construct a reasonable table with SI ranges for the Oct 2015 testers for a few states that are at 99 -99+%iles? Wonder if it would end up similar to the test masters projections?!?

1517

@LivinProof - even though the percentile tables might imply a 213 is good enough for CA, if I had to guess now, I’d probably guess 218 or 219 would be the CA cutoff. Oh well (for us). Looking at the bright side, though, if your daughter is applying to any competitive summer programs (like mine is), knowing that 217 is in the ballpark of the cutoff means that it will definitely enhance their application. So getting close is still worth something


1518

Thanks so much @Mamelot !!! What a team we are building here to make some kind of sese of this that hopefully is useful.

1519

That makes sense @DoyleB- but what considerations need to be made to allow concordance of the past 240 possible to the current 228? Could the 2017 SI remain the same as last year to allow for better scoring percentages despite the lower SI possible? (I hope my meaning is clear.)

1520

@thshadow As a side discussion, could you please help me understand how summer program application uses that, . do I just mention that in application. Is there still time to do that application for someone Junior? Sorry, learning here! Ref to what You said "Looking at the bright side, though, if your daughter is applying to any competitive summer programs (like mine is), knowing that 217 is in the ballpark of the cutoff means that it will definitely enhance their application. So getting close is still worth something.
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