@suzyQ7, but releasing the state summary reports will allow people to predict state cutoffs scores - probably within 1-2 points.
Even when they gave “previous years data” as you noted, people could predict state cutoffs within 1-2 points because most states didn’t vary by more than 2 points from year to year.
The idea that CB is trying to obscure data to prevent state cutoff predictions is SILLY.
@Speedy2019 Then what good reason could they have for not publishing the REAL SI % on this year’s understanding PSAT, page 11. It literally takes 5 minutes to sort the scores in that way. There has to be reason. That reason makes the most sense (because they don’t want to give it away).
@suzyQ7, I believe the SI % table is going to be correct. Thus they have effectively published the REAL SI% table.
Dave_N, yes GCs should have access to such a report. I posted a link to the report previously. Let me track it down.
@Dave_N, here is the link: https://collegereadiness.collegeboard.org/pdf/data-layout-psat-nmsqt-psat-10-esr.pdf
There will be a field for Selection Index and Selection Index Percentile
No, @speed2019, they have not. Last year they did not, and the year before they did not publish the current year %ile . They always published the PREVOUS year. Which is actually more work to do, than to just sort the scores for THIS year, and calc the %ile for this year. There is a reason they NEVER publish the current year %ile. So, again, will repeat @doyleB’s question (for anyone that may have ideas):
Why do YOU think they don’t publish such a table when it is trivial to produce? Why do they give you the previous year’s data instead?
I think it’s likely that the SI percentiles are mostly accurate, within a couple of percentage points. This is perfectly useful as context for GCs explaining scores to parents and for students who may not be familiar with how the PSAT is scored and what all these numbers mean. However, it is not useful for trying to predict the semifinalist cutoffs because of its margin of error. The percentiles are too rough an approximation to maintain accuracy when people apply a fine-toothed comb to the numbers. It’s important to remember that CB’s bottom line is not potential NMSFs. They are trying to do business with huge school districts and the average student, so they have no reason to spend extra time calculating percentiles when they have already taken the time to do a sample study.
@suzyQ7, but the PREVIOUS year allows people to accurately predict state cutoffs within 1-2 points because they don’t vary by more than a couple of points year to year.
I can only guess why they used previous year - but I don’t think it was to prevent people from making cutoff predictions.
I will make a guess, if you want me to. Someone posted, I believe today or yesterday, saying some schools have not yet received scores. 3 months after the test. I don’t know why that is. But maybe the scoring delay to some high schools prevents CB from publishing final, real results. Are those schools being investigated? Are there answer sheets missing, I don’t know. Maybe some school results are missing, etc.
But that is just a guess - only because you insist I make a guess. But I doubt CB is trying to prevent us from making an accurate guess. Otherwise, we wouldn’t get state summary reports, or the commended number found out in April…
To be fair, from 2011 (report year) and back, they did publish “current” percentile data, but it was based on “a sample of college-bound juniors who took the PSAT/NMSQT in 20XX”. It was in 2012 that they started using complete previous year’s data.
A few more things ~ I’m not supporting any ideas one way or another, but the released commendation cut is never really “released” by NMS, but rather put together by homeschool principals/etc.
Also, I was the one who posted about a school that didn’t yet have data, but I wouldn’t jump to lost data quite yet…could just be life in the small town. These things are sadly not a priority around these parts.
@PAMom21, agreed NMS doesn’t “release” the commend cutoff. That is why my post said “found out in April”.
I have no idea why your school hasn’t received scores. But answer sheets have been lost by CB before. Just google “lost sat answer sheets” and you will see instances.
OK not sure if this is even remotely helpful, but here is a ranking of SI’s and percentiles from 2010-2013. SI’s should match that year’s percentile table. I’ve ranked in descending order and you are able to figure out where in the 99th or 99+ percentile your state lies just by looking at the ranking. For states that have equivalent SI’s the ranking defaults to alphabetical, I think. If it says 99.5 consider it in the 99+.
In all the tables the headings are Ranking # (highest to lowest), State, Cut-off, %
This data can be sorted any way you choose so if you want something else just PM me or let me know on the forum.
2013 PSAT
State/Locality Cut-Off Percentile
1 DC 224 99.5%
2 New Jersey 224 99.5%
3 Massachusetts 223 99.0%
4 California 222 99.0%
5 Maryland 221 99.0%
6 Connecticut 220 99.0%
7 Virginia 219 99.0%
8 Washington 219 99.0%
9 New York 218 99.0%
10 Texas 218 99.0%
11 Oregon 217 99.0%
12 Pennsylvania 216 99.0%
13 Delaware 215 99.0%
14 Georgia 215 99.0%
15 Illinois 215 99.0%
16 Minnesota 215 99.0%
17 Hawaii 214 99.0%
18 Arizona 213 99.0%
19 Colorado 213 99.0%
20 Kansas 213 99.0%
21 Ohio 213 99.0%
22 Vermont 213 99.0%
23 Indiana 212 98.0%
24 Maine 212 98.0%
25 New Hampshire 212 98.0%
26 North Carolana 212 98.0%
27 Rhode Island 212 98.0%
28 Tennessee 212 98.0%
29 Florida 211 98.0%
30 Idaho 211 98.0%
31 Alaska 210 98.0%
32 Kentucky 210 98.0%
33 Michigan 210 98.0%
34 New Mexico 210 98.0%
35 Missouri 209 98.0%
36 Nebraska 209 98.0%
37 South Carolina 209 98.0%
38 Louisiana 208 98.0%
39 Nevada 208 98.0%
40 Utah 208 98.0%
41 Wisconsin 208 98.0%
42 Alabama 207 98.0%
43 Iowa 207 98.0%
44 Mississippi 207 98.0%
45 Arkansas 206 98.0%
46 Montana 206 98.0%
47 Oklahoma 206 98.0%
48 Wyoming 204 97.0%
49 South Dakota 203 97.0%
50 North Dakota 201 96.0%
51 West Virginia 201 96.0%
2012 PSAT
State/Locality Cut-Off Percentile
1 DC 224 99.0%
2 Massachusetts 224 99.0%
3 New Jersey 224 99.0%
4 California 223 99.0%
5 Maryland 223 99.0%
6 Virginia 222 99.0%
7 Connecticut 221 99.0%
8 Washington 220 99.0%
9 New York 219 99.0%
10 Texas 219 99.0%
11 Delaware 218 99.0%
12 Oregon 218 99.0%
13 Georgia 217 99.0%
14 Pennsylvania 217 99.0%
15 Vermont 217 99.0%
16 Illinois 216 99.0%
17 Kansas 216 99.0%
18 Rhode Island 216 99.0%
19 Colorado 215 99.0%
20 Hawaii 215 99.0%
21 Indiana 215 99.0%
22 Maine 215 99.0%
23 Minnesota 215 99.0%
24 North Carolana 215 99.0%
25 Ohio 215 99.0%
26 Arizona 214 98.0%
27 Florida 214 98.0%
28 New Hampshire 214 98.0%
29 Missouri 213 98.0%
30 Alaska 212 98.0%
31 Nevada 212 98.0%
32 Tennessee 212 98.0%
33 Alabama 211 98.0%
34 Idaho 211 98.0%
35 Kentucky 211 98.0%
36 Iowa 210 98.0%
37 Michigan 210 98.0%
38 New Mexico 210 98.0%
39 Oklahoma 210 98.0%
40 South Carolina 210 98.0%
41 Wisconsin 210 98.0%
42 Louisiana 209 98.0%
43 Nebraska 209 98.0%
44 Utah 208 98.0%
45 Mississippi 207 97.0%
46 Montana 207 97.0%
47 South Dakota 206 97.0%
48 Arkansas 205 97.0%
49 North Dakota 204 97.0%
50 West Virginia 203 97.0%
51 Wyoming 203 97.0%
2011 PSAT
State/Locality Cut-Off Percentile
1 DC 221 99.0%
2 Massachusetts 221 99.0%
3 New Jersey 221 99.0%
4 California 220 99.0%
5 Maryland 219 99.0%
6 Connecticut 218 99.0%
7 Virginia 217 99.0%
8 Texas 216 99.0%
9 Washington 216 99.0%
10 Delaware 215 99.0%
11 New York 215 99.0%
12 Georgia 214 99.0%
13 Pennsylvania 214 99.0%
14 Vermont 214 99.0%
15 Illinois 213 99.0%
16 Minnesota 213 99.0%
17 North Carolana 213 99.0%
18 Oregon 213 99.0%
19 Arizona 212 99.0%
20 Colorado 212 99.0%
21 Kansas 212 99.0%
22 Ohio 212 99.0%
23 Florida 211 99.0%
24 Hawaii 211 99.0%
25 Indiana 211 99.0%
26 New Hampshire 211 99.0%
27 Rhode Island 211 99.0%
28 Maine 210 98.0%
29 Missouri 210 98.0%
30 Tennessee 210 98.0%
31 Alabama 209 98.0%
32 Louisiana 209 98.0%
33 Kentucky 208 98.0%
34 Nevada 208 98.0%
35 New Mexico 208 98.0%
36 South Carolina 208 98.0%
37 Idaho 207 98.0%
38 Iowa 207 98.0%
39 Michigan 207 98.0%
40 Nebraska 207 98.0%
41 Wisconsin 207 98.0%
42 Oklahoma 206 98.0%
43 Utah 205 98.0%
44 Alaska 204 97.0%
45 Mississippi 204 97.0%
46 South Dakota 204 97.0%
47 Montana 203 97.0%
48 Arkansas 202 97.0%
49 North Dakota 200 96.0%
50 West Virginia 200 96.0%
51 Wyoming 200 96.0%
2010 PSAT
State/Locality Cut-Off Percentile
1 DC 223 99.5%
2 Massachusetts 223 99.5%
3 New Jersey 223 99.5%
4 California 221 99.0%
5 Maryland 221 99.0%
6 Connecticut 220 99.0%
7 Virginia 220 99.0%
8 Washington 220 99.0%
9 New York 219 99.0%
10 Texas 219 99.0%
11 Georgia 218 99.0%
12 Delaware 217 99.0%
13 North Carolana 217 99.0%
14 Vermont 217 99.0%
15 Hawaii 216 99.0%
16 Illinois 216 99.0%
17 New Hampshire 216 99.0%
18 Oregon 216 99.0%
19 Colorado 215 99.0%
20 Minnesota 215 99.0%
21 Pennsylvania 215 99.0%
22 Florida 214 99.0%
23 Indiana 214 99.0%
24 Kansas 214 99.0%
25 Ohio 214 99.0%
26 Tennessee 214 99.0%
27 Arizona 213 99.0%
28 Missouri 213 99.0%
29 Rhode Island 213 99.0%
30 Alaska 212 99.0%
31 Kentucky 212 99.0%
32 Maine 212 99.0%
33 Alabama 211 99.0%
34 Idaho 211 99.0%
35 South Carolina 211 99.0%
36 Iowa 210 98.0%
37 Michigan 210 98.0%
38 New Mexico 210 98.0%
39 Louisiana 209 98.0%
40 Montana 209 98.0%
41 Nebraska 209 98.0%
42 Nevada 209 98.0%
43 Oklahoma 209 98.0%
44 Wisconsin 209 98.0%
45 Utah 208 98.0%
46 South Dakota 206 98.0%
47 Arkansas 205 98.0%
48 Mississippi 205 98.0%
49 North Dakota 204 97.0%
50 West Virginia 204 97.0%
51 Wyoming 204 97.0%
@Speedy2019 Look at boxes 732 and 734. Also page 10, it says selection index - NATIONAL percentile. So, I’m wondering if the SI percentile table is based on NATIONAL numbers.
SO, I guess we need to come up with a correlation between national and user percentiles to determine if the 99+ number starts at 214 or 218, etc.
I believe @DoyleB mentioned that the 99+ might be 16,000 because it would be the 3 million juniors in the nation and not the actual 1.7 million test takers.
@mamelot Thanks for this list! No data for international or ‘other selection index’ students right?
@suzyQ7 yes! Sorry I should have included. Here is what I have:
2012 No info I could find.
2011
Boarding schools 214-221 (THAT’s helpful LOL)
New England Boarding Schools 221
US Territories 200
International 221
2010
International 223
New England Boarding Schools 223
I think you have the info. for the 2013 #'s already.
how about the %'s? Where did you get the %'ls for the other states?
@micgeaux, I also saw the “National” reference in the report. However, while we on this forum have used “National” and “User” to distinguish between the 2 data sets, CB has used “National” in terms of both. Meaning,
“Nationally Representative Sample Percentile” and
“Your PSAT/NMSQT User Percentile - National”.
I’m assuming “Your PSAT/NMSQT User Percentile - National” for the report. Others may disagree and probably will.
@suzyQ7 they came off of the CB’s Understanding Scores for the following year, w/exception of 2010 which came from Test Masters just because I didn’t happen to find anything from CB (not that there isn’t anything out there). As the boarding schools and International are the highest Cut-offs it’s reasonable that they are , of course, in the 99+ though where exactly is probably beyond my pay grade.
I’m coming in very late to this complicated thread and trying to get caught up. While I’m reading I have one question. (Obviously these are all predictions and theories and we don’t know anything for sure.)
But in a state with a historically bottom third SI (Missouri), is there any reason to be concerned about a SI of 222?
I would say no worries, @datahead. I would love those odds!