@ananyadoodles, I think I’m the minority here. Didn’t know @thshadow had similar numbers (but a bit higher).
Most tend to think higher or agree with testmasters, some lower, some same, some higher.
BTW, my prediction also closes the gap between the states (216 high to 201 low = 15), versus last years 225-202 =23. But the gap gets closed differently than testmasters (highs lowered, and lows increased).
Do you think college board maybe intentionally made the concordance table fairly conservative? It would make sense that they wouldn’t want to give people an over inflated score before they could finalize their table. I don’t know maybe I’m looking too far into it. I’m not saying they won’t prove to be accurate however I would think they would lean towards a towards a lower score as to not upset people in the future.
I sure hope @thshadow and @Speedy2019 are correct. My dd is 210 in FL. She is hoping for commended but would be extremely thrilled if ended up with SF. I’m not very optimistic that the SI for FL will go down that far though I was when the scores first came out. Thankfully she has put it aside and is focusing on prepping for next week’s ACT and the March SAT when not swamped with homework.
@Mom2TwoDDs, my daughter is taking the ACT next week also, but has the same problem - swamped with homework. Tell her the science section may have 6 passages instead of 7 to plan time accordingly.
@Speedy2019 I’ll buy you a latte if you’re right bc my kid has 212 TX 
@ SLparent: “Those tables were designed more or less for GC’s & sophomores to prep for junior year.” Thanks. I remember reading that at the time, and I remember I had the same question then: how do the concordance tables help sophomores prep for junior year? I’m not seeing it. It’s not as if the sophomores are going to some day take the old PSAT or old SAT and have some target score in mind and want to see how close they were this time around by concording their new PSAT score to an old PSAT score.
Game on
state, 2014 cutoff, predicted 2015 cutoff
Alabama 209 201
Alaska 206 198
Arizona 215 206
Arkansas 204 196
California 223 214
Colorado 215 204
Connecticut 220 207
Delaware 216 208
District of Columbia 225 217
Florida 214 205
Georgia 218 209
Hawaii 214 205
Idaho 208 200
Illinois 215 207
Indiana 213 204
Iowa 208 203
Kansas 213 204
Kentucky 210 201
Louisiana 211 201
Maine 211 203
Maryland 222 214
Massachusetts 223 215
Michigan 210 202
Minnesota 214 205
Mississippi 209 200
Missouri 209 200
Montana 204 196
Nebraska 209 201
Nevada 211 203
New Hampshire 213 204
New Jersey 225 217
New Mexico 208 200
New York 219 211
North Carolina 215 206
North Dakota 202 194
Ohio 215 206
Oklahoma 208 201
Oregon 215 206
Pennsylvania 217 209
Rhode Island 212 203
South Carolina 211 202
South Dakota 202 194
Tennessee 212 203
Texas 220 211
Utah 206 198
Vermont 214 206
Virginia 222 214
Washington 219 210
West Virginia 202 194
Wisconsin 208 200
Wyoming 202 194
Disclaimer:
I am still a junior. My numbers were crunched two weeks ago, they were based on PSAT data tables (2012-2014). The numbers were expressed in a subjective, a speculative way, a biased angle or many assumptions and etc… Make it short, there are many flaws, missing points… do not take my numbers seriously or personally. I mean no harm at all. Just like the guessing games of NMF cut off based on calculated and logical reasoning.
@dallaspiano I reallllyyyyyy hope those are the cut-offs ,especially CA at 214…how’d you predict that though?
I’ll play. Will just do a few predictions as you’ll be able to fill in the rest. These will seem high.
New Jersey and D.C. 225
Massachusetts 224
California 223
Maryland 221
Texas 220
Georgia 219
New York 220
Minnesota 217
North Dakota 210
That is all. Hope I’m wrong. Will be fun to revisit this in September to see who came up with the best predictions.
@JuicyMango, how can i tell you
As @mantua w/ post #1683 pointed out “The people that tend to come on College Confidential tend to be obsessive”.
It ‘s probably true. I followed others’ posts then analyze their reasoning, calculation. Testing their assumptions, do study a little bit in Statistic (normal distribution, Bell curves, rule at 99.7%tile). Learning from other posters how they present their cases. A little bit from here and there, I tried to see things in simpler way but not too wild.
In short, I learn many things from others (good and bad) from this thread. It opened my mind, by the same time I learn to focus - a little bit obsessive. My card is out, hope I will stop and focus on my Mar SAT ;)) ;))
@Speedy2019 predicted:
Alaska’s cutoffs are prone to pretty serious swings (due to the low population of the state, presumably), but no matter what sort of swings are to be expected, last year’s 206 was quite a bit lower than most years, and so probably isn’t a good starting point from which to make predictions about this year.
It seems as if all the analysis has not led to a consensus in predictions…as evidenced by the posts of the prognosticators thus far. So people are interpreting the available data differently or making" gut feeling" predictions.
U R right
@mnpapa29 There’s absolutely no way…NJ and D.C. are competitive, but 225!!! That’s well into the 99+ percentiles…I’m guessing like 99.8 percentile.
There is no way cutoff anywhere is going to be higher than 220. Take a chill pill.
@ananyadoodles, I don’t think a consensus is possible until the state summary reports are released, hopefully in February.
For my predictions, I’m assuming the SI% Table is correct and ignoring the concordance tables.
Using SI%, I attempted to locate 97% as the cutoff for commended, taking the Definition B into account. From there, estimating the highest cutoff states from last year, NJ and DC. This is kind of gut feeling. With the highest and lowest cutoffs selected, then scaling the other states between highest and lowest.
Does anyone else think that CB wants the results to be a complete surprise in September in order to add to the excitement and surprise of those who get letters of congratulations?
@Lea111 She (gal in public info dept) told me that those tables were designed so GC’s can work with sophomores to prep for junior year… so I took that sophomores could take their new psat scores and concord with old scores to give them a feel for what section they need to work on. For example, if they concord by section and let’s say the R score concords to 65 out of 80, and if they are shooting for 70-80, then they need to work on that section…that’s kind of how I interpreted what she meant…maybe the tables were meant to be used as a tool.
@thshadow CA (and any state with a cutoff that was previously 223) will be 217
From your keyboard to God’s inbox, my friend.