@CA1543 - no worries, I’m the farthest thing from a number cruncher and definitely am the last person anyone should put stock in in terms of predicting cut offs. I just have a hard time believing GA junior test takers this year, even at “elite” high schools, are going to perform better than they have historically.
I notice when I look at the semi finalist list for 2015 there were no people listed from the private schools why is that there said there were 78 semi finalist but none from any private schools this is from Maine
How do private schools fit into this picture?
@AJ2017: 45 NMSF at Walton would be astounding! I really think 24 or 25 is about as many as Walton can expect for a good year, maybe a surprise 28 to 30 given their efforts at getting ahead of the redesign with some test prep.
Also, I don’t want to overemphasize these efforts. This was not a big push. Plenty of kids at Walton – smart kids heading to Ivy League schools – were oblivious to the redesign, didn’t bother to take the PSAT prep class or stopped going after a few classes, and focused instead on taking the last few old SATs in November and December.
@fun1234, I would guess the private schools you are referring to, didn’t have scores high enough?
First time poster here. Like some other parents, this is all new to me. My DS received 1450 SI 216 in Iowa. I’m gathering that he might or might not have a shot at NMF and I am resigned to waiting until September.
My question is more about the process. I think I understand what DS will need to do once/if he receives notification, but I don’t know how common it is for his school to have any qualifiers so I am not sure what I should be looking for his principal/GC to do and when, if anything. I see comments that some administrators in the past (and currently!) are unaware of the basic process and frankly I’m not sure if ours are in that boat or not.
Can some of the more experienced students/parents let me know if I should be following up on anything with the school to make sure nothing slips through the cracks?
@AJ2017: Your view of the Walton data is the same as mine – except I seem to be more bothered by the damage it does to the CB SI %iles. I can’t quite bring myself to believe that CB would self-inflict a wound that bad when it would be so easily avoided. They had a chance to curve the tests exactly as they liked, they did “statistical research” on each question in each of the October sittings, they had a research sample to match… and then they went and published an out-of-whack SI %ile table?! It’s definitely possible – the whole “Understanding your scores” document shows signs of haste – but I’m not yet ready to punt entirely on page 11 as a reflection of the test-taking population. I think I’m more like DoyleB, trying to justify my instinct/ desire to move the %iles upward, but not quite seeing how.
@micgeaux: CB would certainly not report data that way, I agree – I’m thinking about how the Cobb document might have ‘re-reported’ the data in the “Top 100” section…
@IABooks …I am in the same boat. I think we need to start a thread to help all us parents help the GC with what they need to do. Apparently there is only a short amount of time to get everything turned in. @SLparent …made this suggestion. lol
@Tgirlfriend @SLparent I can start a thread, but I’m not very familiar with CC. Just been sporadically lurking over the past couple of weeks. If I do it wrong, please feel free to help. :-*
I’m obviously not as smart as my son who scored a 1430 or a 212 on the PSAT. Anyone have any idea what the cutoff will be for AZ…sorry if this has already been asked. thanks!
Scale up or Scale down (SI and 99+%tille)?
PSAT
2012: http://www.getsmarterprep.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/understanding-psat-nmsqt-scores-1.pdf
99+ run from 222 or 2220 (to match with SAT)
2013:http://phs.princetonk12.org/guidance/Spotlight/S03A7EC5E-03A7ECF9.1/understanding-psat-nmsqt-scores.pdf
99+ run from 225 or 2250 (to match with SAT)
2014:http://www.bernardsboe.com/UserFiles/Servers/Server_3096886/File/Jill Shadis/Ridge Counseling/Standardized Testing/Understanding 2014 PSAT-NMSQT Scores.pdf
99+ run from 224 or or 2240 (to match with SAT)
SAT:
2013 SAT data table
http://media.collegeboard.com/digitalServices/pdf/research/SAT-Percentile-Ranks-Composite-CR-M-W-2013.pdf
99+ run from 2300
2014 SAT data table
https://secure-media.collegeboard.org/digitalServices/pdf/sat/sat-percentile-ranks-composite-crit-reading-math-writing-2014.pdf
99+ run from 2300
2015 SAT data table
https://secure-media.collegeboard.org/digitalServices/pdf/sat/sat-percentile-ranks-composite-crit-reading-math-writing-2015.pdf
99+ run from 2310
Summary: CB has been doing the SI scale up or scale down many times to match the percentile range. They know how to reconcile their data
@IABooks…I am not that good with CC either. Start it and we will go from there. lol
@LadyMeowMeow and @dallaspiano - I agree wholeheartedly with your thoughts that the CB is well-versed on the mechanics of matching SIs and percentiles, scaling, curving, etc. I truly cannot believe even with their recent snafus (June SAT section timing, late PSAT scores, etc.) that the organization would release highly problematic tables and then hope for the best when additional data rolls in after the March and May SATs. I would really like to have faith in the accuracy of the %tile table (pg 11).
@IABooks and @Tgirlfriend - I don’t think a new thread on the NM process and GC role is needed as it seems like there is a ton of information in the form of “sticky threads” under “Financial Aid and Scholarships” > “Outside Scholarships” > “National Merit”. Here’s a link to the page…http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/national-merit-scholarships/
You’ll find there are many active posters in this section and lots of valuable information - particularly helpful information on schools offering full rides, full tuition, and other scholarships.
@AnnMarie74 wrote
Today at 7:18 am
@thshadow and @DoyleB I think your statement that the change in percentile definition only shifts the SI by one point is predicated on the assumption that behind the scenes CB distinguishes the multiple 98s, 99s, and 99+s as different numbers in each row, but I am not sure it’s the case. Imagine if the SI% table was instead presented like this
214 - 228 99.5%
205 - 213 99%
202 - 204 98%
and so on.
Then if you want to change the definition of percentiles, you would restate this table as
214 - 228 99%
205 - 213 98%
202 - 204 97%
If you take this approach, the SI% tables match the concordance tables reasonably well. This would also suggest that the cutoffs should not change much for the high scoring states, at least.
I like the way @AnnMarie74 puts this. I know @DoyleB and @thshadow are saying that you can’t move up an entire percentile accounting for the different definition, but I still don’t understand why that is?
The charts from the Compass Report DO show the percentiles moving up Just One Score, like Doyle and thshadow suggest. However, in these charts, the scores they discuss are 540, 530, 520, all the way down to 470. Maybe they do that because each score encompasses MORE than a full percentile. In this middle of the chart, in fact, each score encompasses several percentiles.
HOWEVER, for the higher end of the scale, many score points may be included in a single percentile. So in that case, maybe you don’t move up single score points but instead single percentiles.
I am not trying to be difficult or like a dog with a bone:). I just don’t understand yet why this idea would be wrong.
Any response would be appreciated. Thanks.
@LadyMeowMeow I totally agree with you and @DoyleB. No one seems to be able to come up with a good explanation. If students don’t make NMSF, who thought they had a great shot according to percentiles, I think they will be more aggravated that the tables were so misleading than actually not making NMSF.
Based on TX past performance (relative to percentiles), my son’s score (in the 99+) should make it easily. TX has never been in the 99+. However, after everything I have read on this website, I am doubtful that he will make it.
@123field…the thread you posted is from 2013.
@Tgirlfriend - The thread takes you to the National Merit Scholarship page which has individual current threads all over the place with tons of helpful information. The process hasn’t changed in years as to when announcements are made, when qualifying SATs are due, when student portions and school portions of the application are due, etc.
There is a very active and current thread for the 2016 graduating class right now as they are awaiting their finalist notification letters. I also know that @mom2collegekids remains active on the various threads and answers questions. The Yola site for school scholarships is updated periodically, too.
I think you might be better served to see what is already out there than to try and reinvent the wheel and accumulate the same data that is already consolidated in this area http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/national-merit-scholarships/
If this may help anyone with their speculating, I have the complete list of NMSF from the class of 2015. For what it’s worth, that year Walton had 25 SF.
@123field…thank you. Appreciate the information.
We are the dog and the answer as to whether the published SI% are nearly accurate is the tail…no matter how many times we circle around … everything else is just noise.