Net Price Calculator absolutely useless?

We did not qualify for financial aid with our youngest who applied to a number of schools early in the season. THe NPCs for merit for him were about 50% accurate but two of the schools had guaranteed merit awards for certain gpa and test score threshholds. But most of the other schools that had merit money, had competitive processes for the awards offered. No telling who would get them as so many factors went into the mix. How can one say whether a given kid is going the get the limited number of Presidential or whatever scholarships that are there?