My dd is class of 2017 at our lps on the east coast. The guidance counselors are heavily encouraging the kids to take the new SATs, particularly if they did not start studying for the old one over the summer. So, rather than “brave and confident students” self-selecting, it will be procrastinating or unsure students self-selecting. Additionally, kids that are not on an advanced track for math are encouraged to wait until the end of Junior year to test so that they will have completed Alg 2. These kids will be included in norming the test.
AND, our lps was selected as a field test school. So, Juniors that took the “old” SAT in Oct, Nov or Dec could take the “new” SAT in school on a specific date in Dec. They took the test for free, will receive a $50 gift card, and will receive reportable scores once it is normed. Many kids took advantage of this and went in cold motivated by the sneak peak, “free” money, excused absence from class, no-cost test so money could be reallocated to application fees…
At least in our lps, I think it is a true mix of kids taking the new SAT.