Well, that’s a pretty great price! Odds are indeed low, but better in ED than RD (around 13% vs. 6%, a differential that is inflated by recruited athletes but shows that unhooked ED applicants do get a “bump” as well). The ED/RD numbers are similar at Rice, where the aid is typically even more generous than at Vandy. Your stats are a hair below median for admitted students at both schools, so the odds are against you, but you’re solidly in their mid-range so your application wouldn’t be tossed without a closer review. If your essays are stellar, it’s not impossible. Rice and Vandy both have ED1 and ED2, as does WashU, which is another with a strong ED advantage and potentially generous aid.
You definitely shouldn’t apply ED anywhere that isn’t clearly in budget. (So, not BU or Northeastern or Lehigh!) But if a school is a long shot but definitely affordable if you get in, it’s just a matter of whether it’s worth investing the additional time on the supplemental essays. If you like one or two long-shot schools enough to take on the extra work in spite of long odds, then there would be no harm in an ED application, or ED1 at one school with ED2 queued up at another. Worst that can happen is you don’t get in and end up at one of your excellent NJ publics; best case, you get into a great school for less than half the price of Rutgers. Only you can say whether it’s worth the time and the emotional rollercoaster… but IMHO it’s a better use of time than applying to schools where an acceptance won’t be affordable anyway.