One thing that’s likely changed between summer and now is that the NPC was updated for the new academic year. I’ve found that the NPCs get updated somewhat randomly, and that might have been what happened.
And I’d say that NPCs aren’t always reliable, but if you have an expectation from the NPC and then the school doesn’t deliver on your expectation (take screenshots), then you can get out of the ED agreement. Or better yet, the school might work with you to meet the number that you were expecting through the NPC.