<p>^^One of my kids knocked out a variety of those schools because he felt they “weren’t a better value” (his words, not mine) than our state flagship. Surprised the heck out of me, as I thought those would be a real sweet spot for him. </p>
<p>OP, also keep in mind that financial aid folks don’t calculate what YOU think you can afford – it’s what THEY think you can afford. Those numbers do not often agree! 
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<p>I will also say that a sizeable number of S1’s friends with tippy-top numbers (and tippy-top acceptances) chose the full ride at our flagship (including 4.0 UW/2400 types). A whole lot of them are now in med school/grad school at Ivies, MIT, Caltech, Duke, JHU, etc. – and without the UG debt. For someone looking at long-term college (pharm, OT/PT, med/dental), I’d encourage that person to steer clear of as much UG debt as possible.</p>
<p>At bottom, I think many of our kids want to feel they have choices and can choose from a position of strength, even if they pretty much know where they want to be. Your D’s friends who are applying to “more prestigious” schools haven’t been accepted yet and haven’t faced the moment of truth about parental finances and FA awards. They may be facing their own moment of reckoning down the road.</p>