It seems that the “bad” guy strikes again. The UN Security Council could be powerless.
It seems in the modern world, despite the fact that there are many more powerful countries, no other country could control the behavior of another country which is not well behaved.
They have tried these in the past decade:
February 2016: Launch of rocket reportedly carrying satellite
May 2015: North Korea announces it has successfully tested a submarine-launched missile for the first time, but scepticism is then poured on the claim
Dec 2012: North Korea launches three-stage rocket, says it successfully put a satellite into orbit; US defence officials confirm object in orbit
Apr 2012: Three-stage rocket explodes just after take-off, falls into sea
Apr 2009: Three-stage rocket launched; North Korea says it was a success, US says it failed and fell into the sea
Jul 2006: North Korea test-fires a long-range Taepodong-2 missile; US said it failed shortly after take-off
Considering the state of North Korean rocket technology has been known to be fraught with problems and fundamental engineering shortcomings, the best NK could hope for is to use these rockets as Kim Jong Un’s ultra-lazy means of garbage disposal.
“It seems in the modern world, despite the fact that there are many more powerful countries, no other country could control the behavior of another country which is not well behaved.”
Especially if that country has nuclear weapons. That is the primary lesson these countries learned from Saddam Hussein.
I truly don’t understand NK. Do they think they’re actually capable of going to war with any major country and holding their own?
I’m really curious because my whole life, NK has been pretty irrelevant on a global level. (Though of course what they’re doing to their own people isn’t but that’s another story).
Can someone more steeped in modern NK/East Asian politics explain what the heck NK is doing and why?
(Keeping in mind I don’t want to shut down the thread over politics)
I have said for years that we underestimate North Korea.
If you take my son as an example of stubbornness ;), as he is from South Korea, then we should be very worried.
The North Koreans have proven that they are stubborn and single minded. That can be a powerful force to deal with even if they do not yet have the expertise to do what they what to do.
Do you ever wonder if they are baiting other countries to take them over as they have a starving and aging population?
I have wondered if getting into a minor war would be a blessing to them.
I think most everyone simply wants them to move on and become a healthy country.
From the '90s onward when the Kim ruling family stopped receiving generous Soviet subsidies due to the Soviet collapse NK hasn’t had too many reliable allies who could give equivalent support. Though Mainland China is seen as another staunch ally, it has not been steady due to factors such as the Sino-Soviet split(NK tended to lean more towards the Soviet camp during the Cold War era), Communist ideological differences due to that split and after the 1980’s…Deng Xiaoping and CPC “Capitalist roader” economic reforms which accelerated in the '00s, and Mainland China’s own increasing alarm at loose cannon type behavior of Kim Jong Il and Kim Jong Un…especially with nuclear weapons/missile tests.
The last wasn’t surprising considering some of those missile tests resulted in missiles landing in Mainland China’s territory which didn’t exactly please the Mainland Chinese leadership for obvious reasons…
This loss of reliable steady source of subsidies like what the Soviets provided is shown by the economic decline which became drastically apparent through the massive starvation of their populace and deprivation which reached even the social elites in their society*.
In short, what the latter two Kims…including the current one have been doing with nutty actions like this is a form of aggressive attention-seeking of the “Look at me! I have enough military junk-er** power so you must take me seriously as a super world power player!***” variety. And yes, they are behaving in the same manner as a child trying to get attention by behaving badly.
The lack of food became a problem even for military pilots as shown through increasing NKAF pilot defections in this period for such reasons.
** Much of the NK conventional military weaponry dates from the late '50s and early '60s. The toll from heavy use for constant military exercises/drills/propagandistic videos to show how “Bad” NK is to the world combined with lack of adequate maintenance due to funding/spare parts shortages has lead to several incidents of NKAF fighters and other aircraft crashing or falling apart while in flight…sometimes right after the plane took off.
*** And NK’s not so subtextual followup: “And you must take our threat seriously by giving us as much subsidies/aid as we’ll accept!!”
The NK leadership, no as they are acting no differently than any other despotic ruling family trying their darndest to maintain their grip on power. And Kim Jong Un has exhibited signs of deep insecurity as shown by the massive purges which included his aunt and uncle and several members of the innermost circle of loyalists.
Somewhat related, a sudden NK collapse is considered one of South Korea’s worst nightmare scenarios even if there’s no challenge to their stepping into the power vacuum. They’ve studied the 1990 German Reunification case and found it troubling that even considering the economic/developmental gap between the two Germanies is much smaller than that of North and South Korea, that very gap is still a serious issue with Germany even after 25+ years. They are terrified of the likely prospect of spending decades trying to handle with the far greater economic and developmental gap between themselves and their Northern neighbor if there’s a NK collapse.
North Korea desperately wants US recognition as an ‘equal’ in discussions of regional security and inter-Korean issues. They have been demanding a high level (presidential) visit or meeting with the supreme leader for a long time. The on-off-on nuclear program and the long range missile tests are the attention seeking actions trying to get us to publicly notice their actions and respond accordingly with offers of meetings and perhaps diplomatic recognition. What is at stake for the Kim family is the security of their dynastic rule. If they have to resort to nuclear blackmail, so be it. Kim Jong Il mastered the art of threatening the South and the US with nuclear and missile programs and getting small amounts of recognition and aid over the years of his rule. Now his son is taking the same playbook and escalating the rhetoric.
I’ve never understood why some of that determination isn’t focused on relieving their chronic food shortages. Surely there are ways for them to became more self-sufficient in food production?
North Korea has had a “military first” doctrine since the time of Kim Jong Il and the famine. The Kims realize that their grip on power is enabled mostly through the loyalty of the military, so they get the food first. That also is true for what little international food aid they receive. The loss of Soviet aid pretty decimated their agriculture. North Korea is also a very difficult place to grow food. The north is mineral rich, food poor. The food growing region is in the south.
I read an excellent book this fall that really helped illustrate for me what the common people are up against, Nothing to Envy: Ordinary Lives in North Korea. I’d highly recommend it!
The book that I enjoyed most on North Korea is “Under the Loving Care of the Fatherly Leader: North Korea and the Kim Dynasty” by Bradley Martin. It’s basically a history of the DPRK through the mid 90s, but is hugely informative and has lots of very interesting information about the Kims.
No. North Korea is in no way a puppet of China. China is hugely annoyed by the North and values its relationship with the South more than with the North. It views the North as a buffer state with the US forces in the south. It also wants no change in the North to avert a humanitarian crisis with millions of North Koreans trying to reach China if the regime collapses. It’s a problem for them, but they view North Korea as more an awkward ‘crazy relative’ than anything else.
And the ironic part is that even with the Songun(Military First) doctrine, the depth of the famine was such it was affecting the military elites…including the air force pilots. Something which factored into increasing defections of NK military personnel including those air force pilots.
The perception of North Korea being a Mainland Chinese puppet fails to account for the following political and historical facts:
After the Sino-Soviet split in the early '60s, North Korea opted to lean heavily into the Soviet camp.
The Soviets were their main and most reliable supplier of weapons and various financial subsidies/aid.
When Mainland China launched its market oriented economic reforms in the '80s at Deng Xiaoping’s behest, NK strongly disapproved on ideological grounds.
Some Mainland China’s Communist Party leaders have called out NK’s rulers for maintaining family dynastic succession of leadership contrary to Marxist-Leninist-Maoist ideology.
One of the reasons why Kim Jong Un brutally purged his uncle and several members of the closest inner circle of power in NK was precisely because they were viewed as being too cozy with Beijing and thus, viewed as agents of Beijing’s attempts to make them into a puppet.
I do not know a good solution. But sometimes I think maybe we just need to deal with the “crazy one” if we could not avoid it, with a minimum cost to everybody who may be affected. Although it is not the similar case, I keep thinking that getting rid of the dictator in Iraq (and replacing it with another headache: ISIS) did not give us any peace. Kim Jong Un seems to be even less predictable than Saddam Hussain was. What if he really goes crazy when he is convinced his day is over? It is not good idea (i.e., could be too dangerous) to “corner” a potentially crazy person, unless we are sure we really could contain him (or his nuke.)
China does not want NK and SK to be re-unified. If they are re-unified, Korea will likely adopt the SK political and economic system (similar to East and West Germanies case) and China will lose control of the Sea of Japan, a disaster for China sea expansion program. That’s why China wants NK to depend on China. Without China support, NK cannot survive.