@PAMom21 I don’t think I can wait 4 more weeks!!!
Wait what the heck, I think they’ve already come out! On the website that was linked, you can see the words fall of 2014 and class of 2016 and class of 2017. It appears that nationally there was a decrease in critical reading and writing and no change in math. Unfortunately I don’t think that’s the case for my state. 
@Swinter
They are already out. When I first looked at the data I was pretty optimistic that cuts would go down because of the decrease in national averages, but when I looked at the number of high-scorers in my state (kids in the 75-80 category for all 3 sections), the totals are actually higher than last year. I find it a little weird that national averages dropped over 1 whole point, but the number of high-scorers is actually greater. Can anyone else interpret this data and give further insight? It would be much appreciated.
I wouldn’t look at the number of high scorers but the % in the highest category. In our state, looks like the % is down for CR, same for M, and up for W. But the differences are very small (0.1%) and they cancel.
@Floridaboii I’m in the same boat as you. 
What I think probably happened is that more people are taking the PSAT in general, so a lower national average. I also had an increase in percentage of people in the highest category in my state so I don’t know how to explain that.
I’m looking at the percentage of top scorers in Ohio, and compared to last year’s, there’s no change in CR, +0.1% in M, and +0.2% in W. Based on these changes, is the cutoff score (for semifinalist status) likely to rise in Ohio, and if so, by how much? Any help would be greatly appreciated.
May someone please check Florida and predict how much Florida will increase. I am concern that for those scoring between 70-74 jumped from 1.3% to 2.1%.
@ZucchiniSoup Where did you get those percentages?
@vmiller7723 The raw data for 2014 is here http://research.collegeboard.org/programs/psat/data/cb-jr
And you have to go get the results for 2013 (same page, look for archive pulldown). Click on your state for most relevant. I haven’t checked the Florida numbers so I don’t know for sure that’s where @ZucchiniSoup got them.
@crowlady I got them from there. Could you please provide your analysis on them?
I would look mostly at the top tier, as the threshold for National Merit is related to the score received by the top 1% of each state’s students. In Florida, for CR that top group decreased by 0.1% from 2013 (.6 this year, .7 last year), stayed the same for M, and W went up by 0.1%. So I’d predict a threshold very similar to last year. The number in the next group didn’t jump, it went down for CR (2.5 to 1.3%) and W (2.0 to 1.4%) . Because in those subjects you have to dip down in the next group to fill the 1% maybe that predicts a slight decrease in the threshold. But it is hard to say without knowing the real distribution of scores.
Something is severely wrong with these scores or with the method… According to y’all’s method DC’s score is going to go up considerably, but DC was a 224 last year
For DC 75-80
+.2% CR
+1.1% M
+.6% W
For DC 70-74
+1.4% CR
-.2% M
+.1% W
Do y’all really think DC is going to go above 224?
Alabama was 207 last year and it went
75-80
-.2% CR
0% M
+.4% W
70-74
+1.3% CR
+.2% M
+.6 W
Do y’all think it will stay below 211(My score)?
According to these charts Alabama did better than Texas and Texas is usually 6 or 7 points better than Alabama…
Louisiana and Kentucky did better than Texas too which has NEVER happened, Texas is usually 6 or 7 above them too
These charts are some BS… It’s saying that Tennessee did better than New Jersey which is extremely unrealistic.
Tennessee was higher last year too, perhaps it’s more about the number of kids testing. Is NJ one of those states where every kid takes it? Maybe in TN, only the top students take it. You have to look at the total testing population too, and you aren’t always comparing apples to apples.
It seems like to change for California.
2014 2013 Variance
CR 1 1.1 -0.1
M 2.7 2.9 -0.2
W 1.5 1.2 0.3
PAMOM21, what do you expect the cutoff score for PA will be this year?
For PA, the number of high scorers went up. The number increased slightly from last year for 75-80 data, but a bit more in the 70-80 data. Since PA has a higher cut than most, I found that data under the 70 mark didn’t hold as much predictive value, but lower states should consider that as well.
Sadly, as this is the only data at the moment, I think this points to a return of the 217. It might stay at 216, but it doesn’t look like it would go down. Hopefully for your sake, it won’t go up. I’d like to predict a max of 217, but it’s really too early to say. Getting the commendation cut will be helpful. That was 201 this year, down from 203 the previous year. If it’s back to 203 or even 204, it could be a year of increase.
The means in PA went down slightly, but I think those high scorers are the numbers you need to watch rather than trends for average kids.
@PAMom21
Not trying to sound needy but what do you think Alabama’s cutoff will go to? These numbers don’t make any sense to me but you seem to understand them quite well.