That question is based on a fallacy - the idea that a student comes into college with some sort of rank in relation to the college.
My DD attended a reach college where her test scores put her in the bottom quartile. She also reported to me that she felt that her level of preparation from her public high school put her academically behind her peers – most had attended private high schools or far more academically rigorous public schools.
So was my daughter in that group (3)? “reaches (where they fall in the lower 35% or so of admitted students)” ?
No. By the time the first set of midterms rolled around, she perceived herself as being in the upper third of all the students around her. This was her perception based on being in class with these students, participating in study groups, etc. And her GPA supported that perception - she ended up with a higher college GPA than her high school GPA, and graduated statistically within the top 5% of her class.
But please don’t take this as an indication that reach schools are overrated. It isn’t - just that you can’t predict where your daughter will stand based on the numbers. My son was a national merit finalist who started at match level school where he floundered, but later transferred to a clear safety where he stumbled into an amazing opportunity – obviously helped by the big fish/small pond scenario – but it had never been about ability. It had been about discipline, maturity, and motivation. I don’t think my son got he opportunities at college #2 because he was smarter than the others as much as it was because he was older and wiser. (But for obvious reasons I don’t recommend that course of action for others.)
Your daughter’s personality and level of motivation are what will determine relative degree of success in college, not the numbers she comes in with nor the degree of selectivity of her college. Usually when a student is faced with the decision of selecting between a more or less selective college, the less selective one is attractive for cost reasons and often is also a large state public university. A large university where the average SAT is 1200 may very well have MORE students enrolled who had scores above 1500 than a small LAC where the median score is 1450 – not that SAT really matters (see above) – but there is big difference between statistics (means, median) and raw numbers. Additionally, the presence of graduate students and graduate courses on campus may boost the potential level of instruction (and challenge) up considerably from a more rigorous, small, undergraduate-focused LAC. And that graduate-education influence just isn’t reflected at all in undergraduate admission stats.
In other words, sure the introductory courses at Big State U might be less challenging than the equivalent intro courses at Super Elite College… but the high school valedictorian coming to Big State U with a full complement of APs isn’t enrolling in those intro courses --they are skipping right to the upper level courses.
If they want to.
Because if the kid wants to relax and party, or is more focused on other activities like volunteer work, athletics, music, theater, political activism – or whatever – then maybe they aren’t going to maximize their academic opportunities at Big State U. So maybe they won’t have a particularly remarkable academic experience.
So again – it comes down to individual interests, goals, and personality. Does your daughter thrive in an intense, competitive environment? Or does she prefer a more relaxed, cooperative environment? Does she do best when there is external challenge? Or is she more intrinsically motivated, more likely to do her best work when she has more freedom and flexibility? What does she like to do in her spare time, and who are her friends? Is she a nerdy type who likes to hang out with other intellectuals? Or is she a fun loving type who enjoys spending time with people from a wide variety of backgrounds, or people who share her love of a particular sport or art form?
And then of course there is the financial question – because if there is significant added dollar cost for attending the college that is perceived to be more academically challenging and/or prestigious – there is also usually a significant opportunity cost that goes along with it.
I have two kids who had the same undergraduate majors and same graduate degrees, both equally smart & capable, but very different in terms of personality and very different educational paths. Their outcomes are different, but both are gainfully employed; both earn more than I do, which is my personal measure of success (or at least the point at which I felt that I was let “off the hook” in terms of being a source of financial assistance for my now adult kids).
Bottom line: you can’t predict “outcome”. Your daughter needs to choose the best fit school among whichever options are affordable. And look at each school as offering its own unique set of opportunities.