<p>D and I were entering her statistics onto Parchment.com this week, and were amazed at her low odds at Kenyon. She is projected (from PSAT) to have 2330 SATs. GPA is a little low (3.72 UW, but may pull up to a 3.8 by application time). Her high school school does not weight. She has taken the hardest curriculum offered, plus summer college courses.</p>
<p>She is a caucasian female from a midwestern state (not adjacent to Ohio, though, four states away). She is probably going to be a biology major, but also adores English (hence the love for Kenyon).</p>
<p>So her odds were just above 30% (aligned with the average applicant).</p>
<p>Kenyon is #33 on the USNWR rankings in 2011 – D’s odds appear to be better at Williams (#1 school) than at Kenyon. I know Kenyon is a coveted school by midwestern caucasian females, but still… Any thoughts on this?</p>
<p>I cannot speak to Kenyon admissions specifically, but can say that my son’s Parchment chances at similar schools – Oberlin, Grinnell and Macalester – are rated on the low end but his admissions counselor characterizes him as quite competitive at those schools. My befuddled parent response is that schools like those, including Kenyon, look heavily at the intanglibles such as recs, essays and interview, to distinguish otherwise qualified applicants – none of which Parchment seems to take into account. So, while those predictions are useful to give a range of possibility at larger schools with lots of data, perhaps not so helpful when it comes to smaller LACs.</p>
<p>Don’t panic, suppport your child in her passions. We went to a Kenyon Junior visit day last year, and my son was salivating at the Admissions officer’s description of the Medieval history and physics students who built a working catapult and tested it with cabbages on the football field (maybe it was soccer field, I don’t know). But all in all, he found Kenyon and Gambier too small for him. </p>
<p>Good luck with this process, it is both draining and exciting, to watch them mature before your eyes.</p>
<p>I got into Kenyon with a 3.4 unweighted early decision. I’m a really strong writer and had a great interview along with some killer recommendations. Kenyon is a school very focused on finding the ‘right fit’, so if she’s really into Kenyon, then it will show! But I wouldn’t be too worried…</p>
<p>Thanks, mwmb. Maybe you are right about other factors. I do have an older child who has been through this (this is D2), so we are not too wound up about it. But this is just such an outlier… to use your examples, D2’s chances (per Parchment.com, of course, so for what that is worth) are:</p>
<p>I assume D2 will probably apply to Kenyon (and of course, several other schools). Not even sure it will be her top choice, although I am quite certain it will stay on her list. Of course, for whatever reason, Parchment.com is probably inaccurate in some instances. But… 31%? </p>
<p>We get our school’s Naviance information by school in a couple of weeks, so we will see how that looks in comparison.</p>
<p>Try to ignore Parchment’s chances for LACs; its algorithm is inaccurate. Naviance’s info will be much more reliable for you. </p>
<p>I can’t speak to Kenyon, but I have experience with Parchment. Parchment gave me a 1 percent chance of getting into Carleton. I have no hooks whatsoever that would skew my results, yet I’m now in the Carleton Class of '15.</p>
<p>Yes, but I am not sure how many applicants our school has to Kenyon… so we may not have any Naviance data. But it is interesting to know that it can be that far off on LAC data (congrats on the Carleton acceptance!).</p>
<p>I’m not sure it’s fair to say that Parchment’s algorithm is off. Parchment just considers the characteristics that students report for themselves and throws it into a analysis based on whether or not those students say they got in. Obviously there are factors particular to certain admission committees that aren’t among those characteristics, but the largest contributors to inaccuracies are 1) the fact that those characteristics and the admission results are self reported, and 2) the small sample size of those reports. If you dig into the “chances” details for Kenyon, you’ll see that they’re based on the reports of just a few dozen students, and that changing just one of your characteristics in the “what if” section will have a significant impact on your chances.</p>
<p>I think regional diversity is an issue. Parchment puts my daughter’s chances at Kenyon at 60% - but her scores are lower than your daughter’s. GPA a little higher (3.8 UW). However, we also live in a rural southern state. I happen to know that Kenyon hasn’t had a student from my state in several years - so I am assuming that makes a difference. </p>
<p>There are so many other factors to consider that can’t be captured by Parchment - Kenyon strikes me as a school that takes a very holistic approach to admissions (but what do I know…I’m new at this process. D is only a Junior). I still use it for kicks, though – and when P tells me my daughter’s chances are typical for the average applicant at a competitive school, I think that’s encouraging.</p>