Not that you asked me to, but below are my guesses as to your son’s chances at those schools. I start off by looking at the school’s overall admission rate. Then, where possible, I looked at section C of the Common Data Set (linked) to see how your son’s GPA compares to the school’s (i.e. some school have nobody below a 3.0, whereas others do). I also looked at the percentage of students submitting tests (and I think yours should), what the 25-75 range was, etc, when making these guesses. College Navigator (the feds’ website) is also very helpful, though not as detailed as the CDS.
Extremely Likely (80-99+%)
Likely (60-79%)
Toss-Up (40-59%)
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Loyola Maryland: SY2-24 CDS
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Susquehanna – leaning towards likely; SY21-22 CDS, the most recent I saw
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U. of Dayton: SY23-24 CDS
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U. of Scranton: SY23-24 CDS
Lower Probability (20-39%)
Low Probability (less than 20%)
Since I always think it’s really important to find sure things that a kid likes, I went ahead and thought of some other possibilities. The athletics grades are from survey responses from students on Niche, so take it for whatever you think it’s worth. I did look at most of the schools’ CDS reports, but didn’t think to link them at the time I was working on this. I also included some smaller flagship universities that could ensure a breadth of possibilities no matter which way his interests turn, but that I would not necessarily call “small” schools.
Extremely Likely (80-99+%)
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Bellarmine (KY): About 2300 undergrads, A for athletics. @M_Fun had a kid attend and wrote a bit about it here.
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Marshall (WV): About 8k undergrads, A for athletics
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North Dakota State: About 10k undergrads, A+ for athletics
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South Dakota State: About 9900 undergrads, A+ for athletics
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U. of Lynchburg (VA): About 1600 undergrads, B+ for athletics
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U. of Maine: About 10k undergrads, A- for athletics
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U. of Montana: About 7200 undergrads, A for athletics
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U. of Mount Union (OH): About 1900 undergrads, A for athletics, on the lower end of this category
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UNC – Asheville: About 2900 undergrads at this public liberal arts college; B+ for athletics
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U. of Wyoming: About 8500 undergrads, A- for athletics
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Westfield State (MA): About 3900 undergrads…on the lower end of this category
Likely (60-79%)
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Canisius (NY): About 1800 undergrads at this Jesuit; B+ for athletics
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Coastal Carolina (SC): About 9800 undergrads, A for athletics
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St. Bonaventure (NY): About 1900 undergrads at this Franciscan school. The mission of the Franciscans reminds me a lot of the Jesuit’s mission in terms of service toward others. A- for athletics from Niche.
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U. of North Dakota: About 9900 undergrads. A+ for athletics
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U. of St. Thomas (MN): About 5900 undergrads, A for athletics
Toss-Up (40-59%)
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Augustana (SD): About 1800 undergrads, A for athletics
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Drake (IA): About 2800 undergrads, B+ for athletics
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Drury (MO: About 1400 undergrads, A- for athletics
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Merrimack (MA): About 4200 undergrads, A- for athletics
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Seton Hall (NJ): About 6k undergrads, A for athletics
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Stetson (FL): About 2600 undergrads; B+ for athletics
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U. of Evansville (IN): About 1700 undergrads B+ for athletics
Lower Probability (20-39%)
- Hobart and William Smith (NY): About 1600 undergrads, B+ for athletics
Low Probability (less than 20%)