@RightCoaster my d16 is an NMS and all she did was take a few practice tests. D17 never cracked open a book and she regrets it now. She’s not in the running for NM. All she had to do was brush up on her math because it was the easy stuff she forgot. Oh well
^This is why I disengaged from all the NMSF chatter on CC months ago! It’s a really, really big deal for A LOT of people…including, I thought, us. It would have opened more doors. Wish I could do something, but I can’t, other than leave any NM data off my spreadsheet for now. It sucks. It sounds like we could miss it by more than the 2 I thought we’d miss it by.
I hear you @2muchquan. I always knew we wouldn’t know until September, but the idea is still shaping S’s list of schools.
On another note, my daughter received an award during her Lacrosse banquet. Guess what it was? “Most Likely To Go To Harvard!” Ouch. Really? Wish it were that simple.
She’s gotta play meaner next year.
Art at Compass Prep states that their real world data does not support that many perfect scores and suggest that CB is trying to concord to a 1600 SAT vs, the way NMSC determine NMSF. http://www.■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■/national-merit-semifinalist-cutoffs/ I hope he is right. (Fwiw, if I multiple her concorded score by 1600/1520 to convert to an old PSAT 1600 scale, that score is lower than her actual PSAT score but still realistic for NMSF, closer but within the upper range (but not top) of the predicted score.)
@262mom 209 is confirmed commended. I have dd’s letter in her file.
Wow, interesting, lots of good responses from you all! I guess I’ll have my freshman son try to take a few practice tests before he takes the PSAT this fall. I didn’t do that with son17. I can see now that if you can convince your kid to start practicing the test taking earlier, then it may pay off a bit on future tests. Son17 is going to study the next few weeks and just hope he brings his scores up a bit, I’m not expecting any big gains, if any at all. It’s OK, I think he’ll be fine.
Good luck to you all who are hoping for the NMSF awards. It must cause some anxiety.
@Rightcoaster Anxiety? Umm, more like Perceived Control Overtaken by Kaos. 
LOL @Mom2aphysicsgeek! That’s me right now, after reading all the posts about PSAT concordance today. I need to take a page out of @2muchquan’s playbook and stop reading all this stuff. I know we’ll be notified in September, and will try to wait patiently until then…
@itsgettingreal17 This is a test to see if it was me who you are now “Ignore”-ing
Yes, I haven’t looked at the NM thread in weeks. Feels liberating!
@262mom Unfortunately, we can’t wait until Sept. We will need to generate an entire new list of schools if NMF is not even close to being possible.
@2muchquan Ironically, I had not been paying attention to that thread. Oh, how I wish I hadn’t looked at it today.
Not much anxiety here, and certainly not regarding NMSF, ha.
We are just going with the flow with son17. It’s going to work out OK.
My friend who has the child that was the NMSF winner claimed that the child never once studied for any standardized testing and pretty much aced both sat and act 1st sitting. I didn’t know if that was the norm with that group of students. We do know kids who study to increase their scores to a higher level. I just wasn’t sure how much studying and prep work could help a kid that comes close to a near perfect score.
So hats off to you folks that have raised these children, they are obviously very smart and gifted and whether or not they win the award they have bright futures ahead of them.
@Mom2aphysicsgeek I hear you! FWIW, I think Art at Compass Prep makes sense…these concordance tables are not designed to predict NMSF cutoffs, so hopefully you can stick with your original list (but it would sure make things easier for families if they would inform us sooner, since it really can make a big difference in college planning over the summer).
I never understood why they have to wait till September to release the NMSF list. Probably one of these smart kids can write a simple program to come out with cutoffs! At least they should release by the time school year is over across the country and give families time to plan for colleges during summer.
Who wants to start a online petition drive for it?
@Mom2aphysicsgeek I tried your formula (multiply concorded selection index by 1600/1520), and the result was close to DS’s actual 2015 selection index (and back in range of the Compass Prep projected cutoff for our state). So maybe the new concordance tables really do have more to do with aligning with the SAT than anything else? I’m going to go with that theory until I learn something different 
Ok, I spent a little bit of time messing around with those posted tables. I am not going to worry about them anymore. This is why. I focused on what is known (209 commended). A 34R (concords to a 64) + 33W (concords to 60) + 37.5M (concords to 72)=209 current for commended but only 196 concorded (201-201 is avg for commended). Since that 209 concords significantly below know commended ranges, they are not direct correlations.
@2muchquan lol No one on this thread. I bet you could guess who I igged as they have been annoying most people on CC the past few weeks.
I would rather smash my thumb with a hammer that is on fire and encrusted with dog poo.
Lol! 
I just keep arguing with them. Next week I go back to school and all the fun will be over for me, boo.
I don’t know if D17 will make NMSF/NMF this year, although her number would have been good enough for years past in our state. It’s going to be close. Or not. I don’t know until they release the numbers (see above comment re: flaming dog poo hammers).
The school had some study sessions, but D17 studied at home using Magoosh. I definitely encouraged her-I did the legwork on 3 online ones I thought could be good, and then asked her to pick one and agree to give it 30 minutes each night for six months. I estimate she did 30 minutes once a week, ha. But she said it was very helpful, and is using it now to study for the ACT and SAT next week.
When she took it as a sophomore cold her numbers were in the high 500’s. After studying, or, as she called it “learning all the silly tricks” she scored 730V 720M, so I think there is validity to studying.
D18 took it cold as a sophomore and got, um, 590V 620M, and “christmas treed the verbal because I was so tired from the math”, so depending on how hard she wants to study, I can see her numbers going up as well, although I don’t want to place that expectation on her because she’s a different kid, and with 3 C’s this year is not in the running for NMF in the future.
My D did some studying (Kaplan and a boot-camp offered by her school), though I wished she had studied more. I am a big believer that these are not tests of intelligence but rather tests of test-taking ability. What the studying did for her was improve her accuracy and speed. She knows the material but makes a lot of careless mistakes if she doesn’t study (i.e., practice and learn the strategies to get faster and more accurate).
@itsgettingreal17 Now you really have me wondering…there are some people who are annoying, but I can’t single one out…so I’m going back in your history to find out :))
BTW, getting faster and more accurate are signs of intelligence to me
@2muchquan You’d figure it out easier by looking at Motherofdragon’s history. She has been having too much fun arguing with them. :))