How many mailings are all of your kids getting? I’m curious because it seems like they’ve dropped off at our house, and I would have thought they would be coming in hot and heavy now.
We are getting 2-5 postcards, booklets, and serious novellas daily.
I look at them more than my daughter.
Many of them are from high reach schools (Chicago, Yale, WUSTL) in whom she has no interest or feels under qualified.
Getting this mail is sort of a rite of passage in our house.
She mostly ignores it but it seems that she might be a little disappointed if she didn’t get it?
I put the best stuff in a large box for now.
S has received surprisingly little lately. I’d have thought with AP scores and June SAT subject test scores, plus applications either already open or soon to be open, that he’d be inundated. But no. Not that it matters, he’s already asked me to pitch the marketing straight to the recycle bin from now on.
Sixth college visit today … this one will be easy, because it’s about 40 minutes away.
Which automatically means DD won’t like it, lol.
One more next week, and that’s it unless there is a late entry into the mix.
I think the list here is really matches and safeties, mostly because of the desire to stay in state and the direct-admit nursing thing (go where thy major is, you know?). The one reach she would have done, Case Western, she doesn’t have the ACT score for so we didn’t even bother. I wasn’t looking forward to filling out that Profile, anyway 
She is working on her third and hopefully final essay - a personal statement that several of them are asking for. It’s a little unclear whether some of the smaller ones who use the CA will just take the CA essay on the app or if we need to submit this extra one. I clicked through and we don’t, but it’s ready just in case because some do need it.
Good luck with the visits and paperwork! I really appreciate hearing about everyone’s experiences.
OK I will play, though competitive music school auditions and merit hunting makes this VERY preliminary:
Miami(Fla)-20%
USCarolina-20%
USCal-15%
Furman-10%
Vandy-10%
Northwestern-5%
Others (UNC, SMU, Bama, OKla, LoyolaNO, FSU, Emory, etc…)-20%
@sushiritto , I already have child attending USCal, but I would welcome a USCarolina attendee. I would save so much on USC gear!
Our mailings have increased recently too. I suspect because he has taken SAT, ACT, AP and SAT subject tests all in the last couple of months. We got the big Yale book as well. It captivated my wife but luckily S18 was out of town.
I can’t even begin to play this game. Totally depends on high-reach merit. We do have a new favorite, Vanderbilt. But some money way more likely at Miami and guaranteed at Oklahoma, still have to rank them as more likely.
Plus, ina new twist, he’s thinking more seriously about continuing his sport–which means finding D3 merit schools.
@Booajo I’m with you, no idea, but seeking merit
I think the odds game is fun. For those that say “Its too unknown” , thats half the point - it will be interesting to see how things change! My guesses are based on what I “know” combined with what I “think”, and not meant to be a serious prediction:
Herewith:
2% Arizona
15% ASU
10% Alabama
25% Oklahoma
24% Texas A & M
1% TCU
10% Trinity San Antonio
10% Tulane
1% Chicago
1% Princeton
1% The Field
50% UK school (Edinburgh top choice)
25% American LAC
25% State Uni with strong History Dept.
Is anyone doing coalition app? Some schools like UMD only have that option. I think D18 will have to do it only for UMD 
@DavidPuddy and others with a potential NMF kid, how did you decide between the various big money schools?
For example, I see ASU, Bama and OU on a lot of lists, followed by UTD and the Florida schools. I very rarely see UNM, Texas Tech, UNLV, U Idaho or UKy, so it makes me wonder if those are just less well known or if there’s a reason people gravitate to the others?
Our (highly unscientific) process was like so…
I perused the relevant yolasite, then visited each school’s website for more details. This gave me a long-ish list that was West-centric. Schools with full rides and/or a med school attached got extra attention. Bama made the early list based on so many stellar reviews here.
Then I flew the school and city names past the kid. Las Vegas? Seriously, Mom? Meh, thumbs down. Idaho? Maybe, let’s see what else there is first. Lansing? Sure! We have family nearby. Etc.
For our preliminary tour, I picked 4-5 schools that fit on a one-week driving route. U Idaho didn’t make the cut because it’s in the wrong direction from places like UNM and OU. S was interested in UT Austin and Rice, but I knew we could never afford those. I promised him we’d see at least one if I could make the schedule work, but I couldn’t.
The final trip list was UNM, OU, UTD, Texas Tech. We came away with two excellent options and one back-up. After that, S didn’t want to see any more schools.
I thought he should at least see Tulane and Michigan State, but he wants to be done. He sees Tulane as having too little return for the investment of his effort and our money. Full tuition wouldn’t be enough, and there are only 5 Stamps spots. He says the odds aren’t good enough despite being interested in the school.
He says Michigan State is too far away. Ditto for Bama.
So, anyone else? Doesn’t have to be an NMF kid, either. Just - how did you generate your lists?
As for mailings…probably down to about 2 to 3 per day recently and some of them I shake my head, they put a lot of money into these gorgeous booklets. Recently got one from Hobart & William Smith that was like a yearbook. Impressive…but sadly a waste of trees here. I’m guessing there will be a big last push in Aug/Sept.
The Odds game is fun…had you asked me a week ago it would look different. Had you asked me a month ago it would have looked different still. 6 months ago her top choices wouldn’t even be on the board haha. Here goes:
50% University of Delaware (*IF she gets accepted to their World Scholars Program)
30% University of Pittsburgh (this could change if she were to get a miracle invite to apply for Chancellors)
10% Rutgers Honors College
4% Boston University (They’d need to give a ridiculous amount of Merit $)
3% Northeastern
3% Bryn Mawr (Same as BU and I’ve heard they only guarantee Merit for one year then pull it)
Her top choices 6 months ago were Coast Guard Academy and Northeastern. Ahhh how the world changes in half a year.
@DiotimaDM Not a parent but I had a couple on my list like OU and ASU that get mentioned a lot but I really didn’t actually want to go south (The rest of my list is northeast or northwest). I knew WSU had a NM scholarship but we visited on a class trip in 6th grade and all I remember is stinky cows and hills. Plus its kinda “Washington’s party school” and does not have the best reputation for smart kids. U of I wasn’t even on my mind until I went to a separate event that some U of I engineering people attended and I liked the program. Looked them up and they had a full ride scholarship so that’s my safety now. Need to visit but I’ll do it in the fall
Re: the board - A little over a year ago, our board would have looked like so:
UCSB 80% (We used to be Blue & Gold eligible - auto full-tuition. S would have lived at home and commuted but then H got a big raise and we moved. Hello, donut hole!)
Cal Poly SLO 10%
Pomona 5%
Rice 2.5%
Carleton 2.5%
Very different from where we ended up, but I can’t say that I’m disappointed in any way. OK, not disappointed, but I’m still a little irked that the UCs and CSUs offer so little help to middle class kids. I agree that the limited pool of need-based funds should be given to needier students first, so I grok the issue. I just wish there was more merit aid to go around.
Re: mailings - We’ve seen U Chicago and Vandy in the last couple of days, but they all get round-filed pretty quickly.
We analyzed many/most of the National Merit contenders. Now is a good time to remind that S is a bubble NMF kid, not a guarantee. SI 2 points above last years state cut off. We are obviously at the mercy of the NMS corp. Hope the state does not see a 3 point increase….
UTD, FSU, made the list, but were ultimately removed for various reasons. Our UTD campus visit removed them from consideration. FSU was removed in a trimming the list/numbers exercise. I suppose there is a shot we visit it on our Southern Swing (which will include Alabama and Tulane).
UNM and UNLV, though geographically convenient, did not offer a more compelling story for our S than ASU, so they were both removed. I am very familiar with both cities and campuses, somewhat familiar with both schools. (But, in addition to Barrett being really terrific, they offer an actual degree program in Actuarial Sciences which is rare. FWIW UTD does as well. )
Similar to you, @DiotimaDM we made a 5 school swing that included Oklahoma and UTD. So logistics play a role in what is considered. We really could not have made a similar trip that included MSU or Kentucky or Idaho. Kentucky, MSU, Texas Tech, Idaho, right or wrong, were never considered due to geography/climate/travel/locale or the fact that they don’t have as compelling a pitch as do the others.
aTm is the last National Merit target on our list. We visited it, while son attended National Scholars Invitational. We are very very familiar with the school and have several connections there. It remains a real possibility even though it offers a less compelling value on paper than some other NM schools, and is often not discussed in the same conversation as the “NMF Full Tuitions Schools”.
But ultimately … I think OU and Alabama specifically are laser focused on their recruitment of National Scholars, and that is why they lead these lists you cited.
Wow re: the mailings. We’re getting maybe 2-4 per week. And she’s checked all the boxes on standardized tests. There was a big surge early this year (fron PSAT, I’m guessing), but barely a trickle now. D is saving them all for some cryptic ritual at the end of the year. ;))
@DiotimaDM D will apply to two NMF schools: OU and ASU. OU is our state flagship so she would have applied there regardless. ASU has her major (which Bama doesn’t), is in a fun city, and she is sold on the Barrett “nerd cage” experience. She visited with H her sophomore year, and I’m taking her again this fall, with S20. With those two solid NMF schools, there was no need to venture further, since she really has her eyes on Canada.
Neither of my kids have much of a list, and it’s concerning me a bit.
DS (civ eng):
SLO #1 choice
UCD
WSU
maybe Colorado State or UWyo
SLO & UCD will be a reach, he should easily get into one of the others (3.8 unweighted, 1410 SAT, will retake in Aug.)
DD (Japanese and ‘something else’):
USCw
UCSD
UCI
UCSB
SDSU as safety maybe?
USC will be a reach. Looking at Naviance she’s in a pretty solid position for one of the UCs (3.9 unweighted, 32 ACT) but then I hear UCs are a crapshoot, so I don’t know.
Neither are willing to look farther afield geographically. DD is insistent that SoCal is the place to be.
I don’t feel it’s a fully fleshed out list, and I wish my kids were willing to go further afield for maybe some merit money, but I can’t force them.
@DiotimaDM In our case, as far as the NMF full tuition+ list of schools, our two big state schools (Kentucky and Louisville, Louisville only to in-state though) have both historically given full rides to NMFs. Money wise, they are more generous than Alabama and Oklahoma, the two schools that get so many of these kids. They are true full rides where he could literally go for free. Hard to pass up.
I asked him about Oklahoma, UTD, Baylor, and others. I really encouraged him to at least visit them, but he just doesn’t want to be that far away. And I think there is a comfort level that he will already know a lot of kids on campus at the in-state schools. Feels more certain he could find his tribe there.
I have made two trips back and forth to the program he is doing this summer. It is 3 and 1/2 hours away for us, and is not close to any major airports. Have to do it again next weekend to bring him home. I have to say that I am learning to appreciate staying closer to home base! Making a drive that is two hours or less to me is so much more doable.
Re: the NMF schools - with med school in play, we knew we needed a full ride, or very close to it. That’s why ASU didn’t make our list even though we drove right by it (twice!) enroute to UNM. OU only made it because it’s full tuition plus and many students say they get add’l scholarships on top of NM. And ultimately, that’s why S decided he wouldn’t even apply to OU. He liked it, but not better than UNM or Tech, and definitely not $8,000-$9,000 a year better.
Sometimes I feel greedy for focusing on a full ride, but doing so means we can keep saving toward med school, more years for the 529 to grow, etc.
Thank you for chiming in, everyone. It’s very interesting reading. 
Small list here:
- Furman (hoping for merit and financial aid) He’s already received one Furman scholarship as a junior.
- College of Charleston. Hoping for merit and financial aid.
- Local college for either 2 or 4 years. This college is merging with another state school, and S18 would be the first enrolled class impacted. Nobody around here (or probably at those meetings in Atlanta either) know how this will play out.