<p>I thought the article linked in post #7762 was for the most part fair and accurate, albeit written in an exaggerated style I don’t find appealing. Here’s the one part I disagree with:</p>
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<p>I don’t think the writer understands that at top college football programs like Penn State and USC, a very high percentage of the players DO get a shot at the NFL. We’ve all seen the statistics that say only a fraction of a percent (or whatever it is) of NCAA Division 1 football players end up playing in the NFL. And that’s true, but it doesn’t account for the fact that NFL-caliber talent is not spread evenly; it’s heavily concentrated at the top, in a handful of top programs. I’d guess the percentage of Penn State scholarship football players who end up signing with an NFL team and drawing an NFL paycheck for at least some period of time is closer to 50%. </p>
<p>There are currently 42 former Penn State players signed with NFL teams. Considering the average NFL career is around 3.5 years, that would be around 12 per year. And indeed, in 2012, 4 Penn State players were drafted, and another 7 signed with NFL teams as free agents. In normal times (i.e., without sanctions), each FBS-level NCAA school is allowed a total of 85 football scholarship, which should mean on average about 21 football players should be finishing up each year. In 2011-12, Penn State had 17 players in their final year of eligibility. Of those, 15 were starters or saw significant playing time at Penn State in the 2011-12 season, and of those, 11 ended up signing with NFL teams either through the draft or as free agents. Those are pretty good odds.</p>
<p>Of course, not all those who sign with NFL teams will stick. Some will be released in training camp, some will be assigned to the practice squad. Of those who are released, some will sign with other teams, others will drift off. Others will make the opening day roster but mostly serve as back-ups and perhaps special teams players, hanging around for a few years before they’re let go. Others will eventually work their way into more playing time or even become starters. Of those, some will become productive players for a long time; others will have their careers shortened by injury. They won’t all become millionaires, by any means.</p>
<p>It’s a brutal business, both physically and in terms of employment prospects, and there are no guarantees. But for a player like Silas Redd who has probably spent his whole life dreaming of getting a shot at the NFL, playing football at a top program like Penn State or USC actually does open up a strong likelihood of eventually at least getting that shot, as long as you avoid injuries—and of course, if you demonstrate both the physical attributes and the skills that are in demand at the next level, but that’s why you were recruited to play college football at this level in the first place.</p>