Sorry my point was not clear. I would not encourage my kid (with your kid’s stats) to attend (aka settle for) #40. No way, no how. Heck some of those in the 40 range may not even offer full funding.
Instead, I’d hold out for a top 10 program at a minimum, preferably top 5. And if that comes thru for him great. If not, I’d look to a MA/MS to continue to build resume, and reapply.