The specificity to a decimal point was more to highlight the fact that none of us know what any specific students odds are of getting accepted into any specific school. One reason none of us know is more qualified applicants are rejected from Duke than admitted every year. An anecdote credited to a Duke AO a few years ago says Duke could fill their incoming classes several times over with qualified applicants every year.
What that means in the admissions process is there is often no meaningful way to distinguish between huge swaths of applicants. There is often nothing of significance that differentiates students who were accepted from those rejected. Duke admits <5% in RD and maybe twice that percentage of ED applicants. Of course, it’s hard to judge the true ED percentage because many of those are scholarship athletes and other highly-sought after applicants.
If Duke is your favorite, by all means, apply ED. However, it is important you understand that as great an applicant as you are, the odds are probably greater than 85%-90% that your application will be denied. That’s a reality of all Highly Rejective schools.
Be sure you find things to love about other schools. Good luck with your Duke application.