Please chance an anxious high school junior for Duke ED!

Applying ED always helps, especially if you are full pay. The benefit has been diminishing in recent years, but it is still a sizable advantage. The last I remember ED admit rates are around 25% vs 10% for RD.

Regarding your question about boost as an unhooked candidate: your GPA/stats would place you at a ranking of 4/5 for Academics. A 5 is given to students in top 1-2%. There are similar ratings for ECs, standardized testing, reccs, etc. You are definitely within the range, but I wouldn’t say you’d be an auto-admit. Your case will likely be decided in the committee deliberations