Do you estimate this is between 10% and 20%? Lower? Does the HS have a history of sending students outside the top 10% to the reach schools on the list?
For HS coursework, will your student have at least four years in each of the core subject areas? What are the senior year classes? Will your student be taking physics?
I defer to the HS counselor for the categorization of schools. I would also drop Purdue and replace with a school that better fits the intended major and desire to attend a ‘midsize, liberal arts-ish’ college.
Has your student requested LoRs from at least two teachers?
Data or not, the college investment decision is unique to each family. Many families do not consider this investment purely through an ROI lens (some don’t consider ROI at all.) People should choose what works for them. Personally, I often encourage people to not take out parent loans, or de-prioritize investing for retirement but again, fundamentally, it is up to each family to decide how much they can spend on college and their reasons for doing so.