Both are reasonable - not assured.
At CMC, 75% are in the top 10% (of course not everyone is ranked) - so that’s a “lesser” part of the app i suppose. The SAT is good - and most apply TO so even better. Still, less than a quarter are accepted. My concern here might be - you want breadth - is there enough. I’d say so -but you’d want to make sure.
Emory is also less than a quarter. Don’t forget, some of those folks are athletes hooked. Your score helps here too. 80% are in the top 10% - so again, this could be the downfall.
WIth Emory, you get access to Oxford too - so two for one - if you’re ok at a small liberal arts school 40 miles outside for two years.
But if you like the Claremont schools, why not Pitzer instead of Emory - which would be more likely. Pitzer is need aware - which is another help.
I guess I don’t understand the UCs, SDSU, and LB State. These are massive schools. You clearly don’t want massive - if you did, you’d be interested in the NM schools. So to me, schools like W&M, Richmond, College of Charleston, maybe some Jesuits, Denver, Ivies, Syracuse, Lehigh, Rochester, Brandeis would make more sense.
As for T14 law school, I don’t think the data says one offs are going from non-pedigree schools - because most don’t show to that level. It’s an assumption.
We know Harvard has 146 schools in its first year class of 560 - schools like ASU, Auburn, Michigan State, Louisville, Ole Miss, and more - because truth is, at most colleges, students like yours are there - not a dime a dozen but everywhere.
Penn 251 from 119 institutions and over 200 in the entire law school. Again like U of Colorado Colorado Springs, U Cincinnati, Montana, UNC Wilmington.
UVA publishes where from - also over 100 schools including 5 from Arkansas this year, 6 and 4 from George Mason and Oklahoma last year, and in the prior years multiples from U of So Carolina, Alabama (7 in 2023), Indiana and ASU, etc. you know which Ivy had more enrollees than Arkansas this year ? Penn. that’s it. Arkansas has more than Emory, Duke, Rice, Chicago etc. , Oklahoma last year? Cornell the only Ivy and they tied with Michigan.
Everyone assumes top schools are getting more in - or as the other poster said - onesies - that’s an assumption without data as the schools don’t provide (UVA does). but guess what - they’re not. We don’t know admit rates by school attended etc but the marketing and perceptions are one thing but the data shows another.
Yes, top SAT takers are also top LSAT takers - so you’ll get kids from top schools - but you get that equivalent kid from the non-top who likely could have gone to a top school initially had they wanted to or could afford to.
That becomes the financial question - is it worth $400K to you (or close) to get that “perceived” pedigree? It’s a personal call to each family - but these “brands” are good at marketing to the consumer (the parent and student) - but I’m not sure the data (if you look at career data) necessarily proves this true in the world of employment - but it depends on what you seek. It certainly wasn’t true for my two who chose safeties - and are performing to the level (I believe) had they gone to the reaches they attended. The Alabama kid works with kids from UW, Mich, Purdue ( who he declined) and the Charleston kid is in a two year work program with Ivies, top publics and yes some regular kids - just like her internship for the state and top DC Think Tank. It seems you do buy into the common perceptions OP (I did too b4 my son told me I was wrong and it appears I was) and it certainly is your right to do so as well. We all have to follow that path that is best for us.
Best of luck to you - in whatever your student decides (I hope they’re a part of this process).