<p>I’ve been holding my breath just waiting for tonight. Was in the city of Erie, Pennsylvania with my relatives this weekend, just walking around looking at this hardworking, blue-collar community and thinking about all of these issues.</p>
<p>My elders (in their 90’s, lifelong dems) had reluctantly switched from Clinton to Obama in the past few days due to perceived electability. My agemate relatives were closed-mouthed around the table. The college-aged kids were strongly for Obama. A Detroit cousin lamented the loss of John Edwards. </p>
<p>Kind of tense, really. The only consensus was that it was imperative to beat McCain because of the economic mess. With the family’s first returnee from Iraq (2 tours of duty), everyone was careful disucssing war issues because we’re so grateful he’s home safely when others are not. He didn’t want to talk politics at all, except to express that he’s glad to be back home with family once again. </p>
<p>The exit poll show that people making 150 K or less favored Hillary. College graduates favored Obama, but people with postgraduate degree favored Clinton.</p>
<p>Depending on who you’re listening to, Sen. Clinton won by 8, 9 or 10 points (rounding up, rounding down, rounding round…). At any rate, she gained 10 delegates over all. However, this morning, Oklahoma’s governor, a superdelegate, endorsed Obama so her net is 9. In order to win enough delegates for the nom, she now needs approx 78% of the remaining delegates. Sen. Obama needs 29%. There are only about 700 delegates and 300 superdelegates left. </p>
<p>According to news reports, and scuttlebutt, Sen. Clinton is out of money, despite the half million her campaign claims came in last night. Sen. Obama has between 30 and 40 million on hand. He whittled her 20+ point advantage 4 weeks ago down to 10 (or 9 or 8…) yesterday.</p>
<p>And not to be partisan, John McCain received slightly less than 73%, with Ron Paul receiving 15 and Huckabee 11 (all percentages approximate…see above). This may indicate that many Republicans are still not happy with McCain as their putative nominee. If 25% of Republicans stayed home in November, any Democrat will be a landslide victor. </p>
<p>CNN is saying this morning she won by 10 percentage points 55 to 45 %. Her campaign publicized that they raised $2.5 million last night after her victory. It doesn’t sound like a lot if she had no net money on hand (was in the red) and she is spending $1 million a day. Maybe more came in since last night though.</p>
<p>^ The math and money still don’t work for her. The only way she could possibly win is in the smoke filled room, and with Bill winking and nodding.</p>
<p>momofnewP – That’s why I said ‘it depends on who you are listening to.’ CNN is showing 10 percent because they are rounding a .3 up instead of down. ‘Double Digit’ is easier to get out than ‘barely ten’. Other new orgs are saying 9, others 8.5. “Ten” will probably be what you hear the most as it becomes conventional wisdom…but then MSNBC and others are still claiming she won Texas, too. </p>
<p>I did read that Clinton Camp is claiming 2.5 million came in last night. That’s great…they’ll be able to pay the bills they left behind in other states!</p>
<p>Simba – You think Bill will ‘wink and nod’ for Obama. Not likely. And what’s with the ‘lord’ stuff? Unless you think he’s Krishna’s latest incarnation or something…?</p>
<p>the final numbers still haven’t come in. One county reported - last i saw - 97% of its votes. Once that is in, there will be a clear number and percentage. If the colleges can give specific percentages of admits, maybe the news people can give them for primaries i.e. 9.2 % etc. Sometimes though they seem to want to make it easy and simple, i.e. a whole number</p>
<p>It’s funny to watch the conservative talking heads. They are clearly trying to boost a “victory” for Hillary. The sad fact is that the only reason they are doing this is because they see Obama as a much bigger threat to McCain. To think otherwise is absurd. Unfortunately, Rush and his mimics probably do have some impact on some of the ignorant folks jumping on this bandwagon. :(</p>
<p>She may have only netted 10 or so delegates, but she also gained back about 200,000 popular votes. She is still tough and is most definitely making a good case for herself for the convention. She is winning the big states and the general election democratic states. Obama isn’t able to do any of that.</p>
<p>What i found interesting were all the polls showing what Hillary supporters said they would do if Obama got elected and what Obama fans would do if Hillary got elected. Both were in the 13-19% group of saying they would either stay home and not vote, or vote for McCain if the other one was the nominee. Most republicans will turn out to vote. They’re not just going to stay home.</p>
<p>Personally, I don’t think Obama can beat McCain. I think Hillary definitely has a chance. Just not Obama. Hillary’s demographic supporters are those that will come out and vote. Guaranteed. Especially the older Americans. They mentioned last night that the young crowd/college students did not come out in the force they anticipated for supporting Obama. That is historically true throughout the last 50 years. Young people, college students, etc… get very passionate about the issues and the candidates. But when the time comes to put their money where their mouth is, a large percentage doesn’t show up and vote. That was the same for my parent’s generation, my generation, and no my children’s generation. We aren’t nearly as involved when we are 18-25 as we are when we are 40-55. </p>
<p>Howard Dean and the DNC really need to look at what they want to do. The vast majority of voters will be 30 and older. Whether democrat or republican, that age group is more conservative. They’re the ones where taxes, home loans, inflation, unemployment, etc… who are most interested. Because they are conservative, Obama is too liberal. It’s not an accident that Obama was listed as the MOST liberal in the senate. The country will vote for a moderate or conservative. Dean and the DNC better really think about this. Clinton can beat McCain. I don’t think Obama can. Especially if he tries to debate McCain the way he does clinton. And with that stern and authoritative attitude of his when giving a speech, he is not showing any compassion or sensitivity. He can only play off of the voter’s anger and desire for change for so long. Eventually, he needs to get more into details and the positives of what he can do and not just what he says he will do. If Obama gets the nomination, McCain will probably win the presidency.</p>
<p>I hit it right on the nose. You wanna know how I did it? It’s simple ('cause it worked that way in other similar states) - take the average poll number for Hil, and add 4% - has nothing to do with guns, bitter, Ayers, or anything else except folks walking into the booth and refusing to pull the lever for the differently tinged one.</p>
<p>Doesn’t matter. She didn’t win by 20. She’s toast.</p>
<p>1sokkermom, I agree! Every conservative is pulling for Hillary-and that goes for the conservatives on this board, as well. When I hear someone whom I know will vote for McCain cheering for Hillary, it just reinforces my belief that Obama is a threat they don’t want to deal with.</p>
<p>The sobering fact of the matter is that it’s pretty hard to imagine how any Democratic candidate is going to be elected President without winning Pennsylvania. Clinton and Obama together pulled in 2.5 million voters combined in the largest turnout ever in a Pennsylvania primary, including about 300,000 new registrants who largely voted for Obama, but it will take at least 2.8 million votes to win Pennsylvania in November. Neither one of them has clearly demonstrated that he or she has what it takes to beat McCain.</p>
<p>McCains Achilles heel is Iraq. If he continues to push for increased involvement in the middle east citing Islam as the biggest threat to our way of life, requiring unlimited sacrifices of our young and our treasure, I think he will lose.</p>
<p>ASAP I agree with your assessment of John McCain and Iraq. </p>
<p>Christcorp I think what people say they will do on primary day and what they actually do on election day (more than 6 months later) can change a lot. I wouldn’t rely on those polls. People are passionate about their candidate at the time of self reporting. They may or may not feel the same way when voting time comes around.</p>
<p>I hear a lot of talk of the three major candidates, but not much about Nader. Why? People seem to think the major three or staying home are their only options for their vote.</p>