<p>Ok, I’ll start. I think Hillary will win The Pennsylvania Primary by 17 points because she has done a better job of negatively defining Barack Obama than he has done communicating his own message of “changing the way Washington politics is done”.</p>
<p>My guess is 10-12 pts., but she’ll lose NC so it won’t help her, if she won both than that would really help.</p>
<p>The problem for the dems now is that Obama can’t seem to close the deal. If you look at the republicans they got all when they couldn’t seal the deal to reunite the party, and with everyday McCain is getting more support even amongst independents, it will be hard to sway over Hillary voters if she continues to fight until the end. I am not saying she should quit, but with everyday it seems their base is becoming more entrenched</p>
<p>I guess that Obama will win in Philadelphia, and that he will win with more of the educated voters.</p>
<p>I guess that Hillary will win the older women voters.</p>
<p>Oh he’ll win Philadelpia, to be sure. But Pittsburgh? Scranton? Youngstown? Allentown? I doubt it.</p>
<p>^^^ I concur</p>
<p>What’s interesting is that She will win the red areas and not the blue areas, which will win her the state. In NY you can’t win NY without NYC, you can win PA without Philly</p>
<p>Also if you look at who she is getting support from statistically it is a lot more than older women.</p>
<p>Obama needs to start addressing how to secure the base, because looking foward to NJ, many dems are polling that if he wins the nom, they will switch to McCain, which will be the first time that NJ may go to a republican since 1980!(right now McCain is tied with Obama)</p>
<p>My in-laws were called by a polling company, and are so opposed to Obama that they actually spent time and answered the polling questions. They are supporting Hillary, would have voted for Edwards had they stayed in, have never voted republican in their 50 yrs of voting, but stated that they will vote for McCain against Obama and told the pollster that they will also go and work for their campaign if it is Obama.</p>
<p>Ok. But I’d do the same against Clinton.</p>
<p>Hillary by about a field goal in Pennsylvania (which essentially gives her no “win” at all such as in Texas where Obama actually won more delegates despite Billary declaring victory in the Lone Star State). Obama will then beat her by about the same margin of a couple points in Indiana and it will be an Obama blow out in North Carolina and this will all be over.</p>
<p>Then the real fun begins as Obama takes on the third term of “W” in the guise of mccain.</p>
<p>Okay, so if Obama people will go to McCain, and Hillary people will go to McCain, how on earth will the dems win? Isn’t this a bigger problem then anyone has addressed?</p>
<p>Hillary will win by about 10-12 points in Penn, which still isn’t enough to mean anything for her because she’ll pick up like 4 delegates in the spread. </p>
<p>Then her campaign will try to paint it as a huge victory because obama outspent her, yet he closed the gap like 8 points. </p>
<p>Obama will win by a 12 point margin in NC, and also by a 2 point margin in Indiana, giving him a net win in delegates.</p>
<p>But clinton will try and use “big state theory” that nobody but her supports because the states she wins will vote democratic either way. (Seriously, penn isn’t even a swing state anymore.)</p>
<p>Clinton +14</p>
<p>Since I believe EVERYONE lies to pollsters, I think Obama will win PA–just barely.</p>
<p>OK… I’ll call PA for Hillary but with about a 7 point spread… close to an even split on the delegates.</p>
<p>I’ll play the game…my bet is on a Hillary win with only 4 points to spare.</p>
<p>Obama by between 4 and 6 points.</p>
<p>Heck, call it 5.</p>
<p>David Cook by 14 points.</p>
<p>Oh. You’re talking about the primary. :)</p>
<p>I’ll call PA for Hillary by about 6 points.</p>
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<p>It’s because people lie to pollsters, that I think that most of the supposedly “undecided” 9 percent are actually Hillary voters. Just my suspicion.</p>
<p>Real Clear Politics has Clinton up 5.6 points now, but I’d adjust that to account for those who won’t admit to a pollster that they won’t vote for a black. I’ll guess Clinton by 8 or 9 points.</p>
<p>I’d call it Hillary, by fewer delegates than she lost last week.</p>
<p>Most of the polls have Hillary up slightly but there’s still a lot of undecideds that don’t get counted in the polls. I think it’s essentially a dead heat and will be a game between which campaign can drag out the most voters.</p>
<p>However, the bigger issue here of course is that to stay in the game Hillary doesn’t just need to win she needs to win by absolutely massive margins to have any hope whatsoever of catching up to Obama. It’s the delegates that ultimately matter and the math there dosen’t look so hot for Hillary. </p>
<p>Unless she pulls off a total blowout in PA (very unlikely) then there just aren’t enough delegates left for her to catch up. Sooner or later her campaign is going to have to face that reality or else she’ll just be a hanger-on that mathematically can’t win (a sort of Huckabee for the Democrats).</p>