<p>My old heating oil suppler (which I abandoned last year for a nifty winter pricing deal from a competitor) is trying to lure me back with a ceiling plan that, based on today’s price of $3.97/gal., offers a floating market price with a maximum of $4.29 through the winter. Other companies in the area are offering fixed price deals with prices higher than the current spot price, but lower than the other company’s ceiling price. </p>
<p>I have no idea how to bring a rational analysis to this process. I know prices are trending down at the moment, but hurricane season isn’t over, the oil companies haven’t become charitable institutions, and the international situation is hardly stable. My head is spinning. Has anyone else been parsing this ?</p>
<p>I’m not sure there is a rational analysis! That being said, I have been calling oil companies every few days to check prices. They have been coming down except for a couple of blips where they went up, but then came back down. One company is at 3.57 today. I don’t think we will lock into any price plan. We are gambling that it will come down a little more, but I don’t want to wait too long. I hope it’s not a long winter!</p>
<p>We were able to lock in a top price with the possibility that it will go down, but we had to pay $400 for the privilege. It’s a total crap shoot. Commodities traders can’t figure this stuff out; how are we supposed to?</p>
<p>It’s a gamble. In the 20 plus years we’ve been in our current home, I’ve always bought on spot, and saved considerably over contract pricing. </p>
<p>Large tank, forced air system, so we don’t require oil for hot water.</p>
<p>I usually fill once a heating season, (coastal CT, season can run from September thru May or November thru February, or anywhere between depending on the year) and will monitor as the season winds down, topping off at the minimum gallon delivery load that doesn’t require a surcharge.</p>
<p>I’ve been monitoring it, but haven’t committed yet. The best spot price I’ve seen is $3.97. A bit lower and I’ll go half tank at this point and watch.</p>
<p>The reality isn’t so good for propane either…this is in northern Indiana. Oh, how I long for the days I was on natural gas…lots cheaper, no ugly tank, no wondering if the delivery guy will forget me.</p>
<p>We do contract it at a fixed maximum price, but are supposed to get the spot price if it’s lower on the day it’s delivered. That max price went from $1.60 last winter to $2.30 this coming winter.</p>
<p>Total of $2,800 spent from Sept 07 to May 08 for heat, stove top cooking (not much!) and hot water. How does this compare to the season’s bill for those of you using oil in the northeast?</p>
<p>sryrstress, I wrote propane but I meant to say natural gas. </p>
<p>We have a big old drafty house with an antiquated steam radiator system. One disadvantage of a steam boiler is that you can never turn them off. The newer ones can be turned down to a very low rate of burn, but our old behemoth uses 100 gallons of oil a month during the non-heating season! We usually don’t turn the heat on from April to October, give or take, and we keep our thermostat very low: 60 to 62 during the day, 55 or so at night. We still used 2000 gallons of oil last year. This year we have put money into improved insulation and will be installing new storm windows–the old one’s are pretty useless–and refurbishing the windows so that they can be better insulated. We are also on the brink of replacing our heating system itself.</p>
<p>If we go geothermal, our annual heating/cooling/hot water cost (we would get central air with it) should be no more than $2500 per year, and quite possibly less, since we like a cool house. Our other alternative probably range from about $4000 to $10,000 per year.</p>