<p>We al know about China’s breakneck economic growth. But China - because of its one-child policy - is also facing a serious demographic problem as China’s population is also rapidly aging. Again, it has been estimated that by 2050, a significant proportion of the Chinese population will be retired. Couple that with the fact that China needsbreakneck economic growth in order to head off a political crisis. The Chinese Communist Party is betting that it can produce enough economic growth to provide jobs to the millions of former rural farmers who are heading for the coastal cities every year, while at the same time not instigating a push for political reform. That’s a tremendously tricky political balancing act. I hope it goes well, but it may not. The economic growth has produced numerous dislocations - with rampant pollution, the fraying of social welfare protections, bureaucratic corruption, and resultant tremendous social unrest. While millions of Chinese are clearly better off than they were before, millions are also worse off due to the loss of social protections and increasing corruption, and these millions may agitate for reform. Numerous Chinese political regimes in the past (i.e. the dynasties) have been toppled due to peasant unrest, and the current regime may fall for the same reason. China stands on the edge of a knife. If things go well, China will do well. But there is a significant chance that China will fall into rebellion and chaos.</p>
<p>As for India, I think that country’s greatest problem is that, just like China, it has to face the issue of integrating millions of poor peasants into a modern economy, along with the special problems posed by ethnic/language diversity and the caste system (i.e. untouchability and the reservation system). Certainly, caste social restrictions have relaxed significantly in the cities, but what about the countryside? Certainly, if India could solve these problems, then India would be in great shape as it would be able to fully utilize the talents of its entire population. However, the caste system has evolved over thousands of years, and hence most likely defies any quick solution. Couple that with the fact that the License Raj, while weakened, is still very much alive. {For example, I read that India today still ranks in the bottom quartile of not all nations, but just developing nations in terms of the ease of starting a new business.} Corruption is still endemic in India. The physical infrastructure (i.e. roads, ports, electricity) is still rather backwards.</p>
<p>Again, to be sure, India (and China) have great potential. But they also has serious problems that it needs to address. Certainly, the US has problems too. But are the US’s problems really more serious than the problems faced by China and India? We can debate that, but that’s unclear to me</p>
<p>The jobs that are going to China and India as of right now are not of much value. This is why I stated earlier that a college education is a must nowadays due to outsourcing of customer service jobs, and things of the like. Before India and China excels in research and takes even more American jobs they will need to address serious issues. Globalization doesn’t eliminate jobs, in fact it can create many jobs for the US as our products and services will be distributed to a vaster population than they are. If developing nations are taking US jobs, the US people will need to advance their skill in order to create more value in their products, simply Innovating will not suffice, we will need to have the resources and skill to produce and market these products worldwide, and with the US declining in mathematics and science, something needs to be done. We will need to do more than No Child Left Behind, and President Bush’s plan to train more teachers in math & science. </p>
<p>Math and science are “cool subjects.” We need to take it as a warning, we will lose jobs overseas unless more funding is devoted to the disciplines. It’s important to understand, if children don’t have those skill sets needed to compete with a child from India or a child from China, the new jobs will be going there. We have to address the country as a whole, not the few lucky children who will have funding to invent.</p>
That’s exactly how you should view your future… along with watching that the floodgates don’t open up in immagration because a certain software giant tells congress our children are falling behind and he “must” go overseas… sure he “has” to… </p>