PREDICTION:
The key is to compare the 99%+ percentile numbers of 2014 to the 99%+ percentile numbers of 2015 at the “Understanding Your Scores” College Board sites. Percentiles are the most logical way to look at this because percentiles are percentiles no matter what the scale:
In 2014, the 99%+ percentiles began at an SI of 224.
In 2015, however, the 99%+ percentiles begin at a raw score of 1430. When you convert that 1430 to the new SI you get 215 (±).
Thus, a 215 this year (being the first 99%+ percentile), is equal to 224 from last year, which was also the first 99%+ percentile. That is a drop of 9 SI points. Therefore it is reasonable to assume that the 2015 cutoff scores will drop around 9 points to be consistent with 2014 scores, using the 99%+ as the marker. That is less than the 12 point drop originally predicted by some, but a substantial drop none the less. The College Board 2014 vs. 2015 percentile numbers are clear. Anyone can look them up.
I extrapolated the numbers from the following College Board documents:
- 2015: https://collegereadiness.collegeboard.org/pdf/2015-psat-nmsqt-understanding-scores.pdf
- 2014: http://www.bernardsboe.com/UserFiles/Servers/Server_3096886/File/Jill Shadis/Ridge Counseling/Standardized Testing/Understanding 2014 PSAT-NMSQT Scores.pdf