@HelpfulDad I agree - I wonder what is on the GC reports in terms of both the SI’s that are at or above 99%ile and also whether the reports indicate if the info about SIs & percentiles is based on a particular state’s data, national data from the test, some kind of a sample or what exactly. And is there any other helpful info - any way to learn how kids in a school performed this year compared to last - I think our public school would have contributed more to the lower end bc it was the first time everyone who came to school that Wednesday (Oct. 14) took this test - not optional as it is on a Saturday. A lot kids who otherwise would not have taken it, did take it.
I agree we cannot be sure of anything until we have more information.
From information gathered in CC so far, the lowest PSAT score with 99%ile is around 1390 (if the user %ile in the score report is not a random number CB pulled out of air. That is still a possibility.)
GMT looked at and found the possible S.I. range for 1390 is 202 - 214. Although one could think 202 is the lowest possible S.I. for a 99%er, 202 is possible with PSAT 1290 - 1390. Thus, many kids with 202 are below 99%ile. Thus it’s unlikely that 201-203 is S. I. 99% line. It’s more likely to be around 207-210 range.
@payn4ward 1390 is still in the 99% percentile, nationwide? Is this comparably lower or higher to previous years?
@LAD2266 @mathyone It seems clear that the new PSAT and SAT are going to compress the top scoring range. Think of the old 2400 scale. You had 200 points just to spread out the 2200’s from the perfect scores. This is SO different from the ACT, which has only 3 points, 34, 35,and 36, to allocate to top 1% scores. So the new PSAT/SAT still provides much more room than the ACT. Much.
I think compressing the top score range makes sense. If it was designed to predict IQ, then the ceiling should be as high as it needs to be and the, to use your word, granularity, should be fine. But why should a kid get into college because she/he has a 2310 over the student who has a 2200. There certainly must be more important factors other than 110 points on the SAT.
Another thing this compression solves is the NM difficulty/awkwardness/possible unfairness of such differing score cutoffs in different states. The Testmaster prediction chart shows this very clearly. If they are right, the higher cutoffs will be lower and the lower cutoffs will be higher. Thus, the distribution of the NM awards to different states will not be based on such Huge discrepancies in the scores.
@frypan99 That is the question everyone wants to know but does not have the answer to.
@payn4ward Found the answer.
TL;DR: The percentiles are inflated, with data that Collegeboard more or less forged from hypothetical scores from students who actually didn’t take the test. Not to kill the party or anything, but if you’re celebrating because you think your percentile is quite high, that’s what Collegeboard wants you think. In reality, your percentile is probably a lot lower.
From a Washington Post article I found online:
Here’s the most interesting point: College Board seems to be inflating the percentiles. Perhaps not technically changing the percentiles but effectively presenting a rosier picture by an interesting change to score reports. From the College Board website, there is this explanation about percentiles:
"The Nationally Representative Sample percentile shows how your score compares to the scores of all U.S. students in a particular grade, including those who don’t typically take the test.
The User Percentile — Nation shows how your score compares to the scores of only some U.S. students in a particular grade, a group limited to students who typically take the test.
What does that mean? Nationally Representative Sample percentile is how you would stack up if every student took the test. So, your score is likely to be higher on the scale of Nationally Representative Sample percentile than actual User Percentile."
On the PSAT score reports, College Board uses the (seemingly inflated) Nationally Representative score, which, again, bakes in scores of students who DID NOT ACTUALLY TAKE THE TEST but, had they been included, would have presumably scored lower. The old PSAT gave percentiles of only the students who actually took the test.
[...] It sure looks to me that College Board is trying to flatter students. Why might that be? They like them? Worried about their feeling good about the test? Maybe. Might it be a clever statistical sleight of hand to make taking the SAT seem like a better idea than taking the ACT?
@HelpfulDad, your analysis is very good. I think state cutoffs are going down. Based on the 99% SI going from 213 to at most 207, they are going down by at least 6 points.
There is one wrinkle that will likely affect the cutoffs. The number of students taking the PSAT is increasing each year. I think 1.55M juniors took the test in 2013 and 1.59M in in 2014. CB said over 4M total took the test this year. So I think we could see another 150K added for juniors in 2015. That could take 2015 to 1.74M juniors. So the number in the 99% pool is increasing each year, while the number of NMSF is fixed at 16,000. That will push the cutoff numbers higher in each state.
So the larger testing pool will somewhat counteract the scoring range going down by 12 points from 240 to 228. That is why I don’t think the cutoffs will go down the entire 12 points and thus Prepscholar’s low estimates won’t be accurate.
When more students post their SI %, we can see where the 99th percentile ends (probably somewhere between 200 and 207). But I wouldn’t expect the cutoffs to fall by that same delta because of the larger testing pool.
“So the number in the 99% pool is increasing each year, while the number of NMSF is fixed at 16,000. That will push the cutoff numbers higher in each state.”
That theory only holds water if a lot of the additional test takers are at the top. Not likely.
@suzyQ7, sorry I don’t agree with you. Given 1.59M juniors in 2014, the top 1% would be 15,900 students. Assuming 1.74M juniors in 2015, the top 1% would be 17,400 students. As the number of juniors taking the PSAT increases, the number in the top 99th percentile increases. Simple math.
The 1.74M is a prediction based on 4M students taking the test this year versus 3.5M last year.
@GrantC46 -my son was commended in 2013 and it did nothing for him.
Commended is basically worthless.
@Speedy2019 I think what @suzyq7 is suggesting is that number of students in the 99th % might increase, but the cutoff scores probably will not fluctuate much. The lower bracket of 99 will drop, but the top should stay pretty stable.
As far as the bay area CA schools, the obsession with test scores and Ivy Leagues, MIT and Stanford in the Asian community can not be over emphasized. At my school over 30% are NMSF every year and in many schools there are 40-50. Those who are not feel devastated. I am planning to study for next year but this is what we in CA are up against.
@workinghardq1234 Gosh that’s too bad – my friends daughter in a private school out there missed it by 1 point last year - very sad and I know its frustrating to see students in other states make it with much lower scores. In many states most students don’t prepare much if at all for the PSAT - of course some do and top public schools & private schools have many who do but it is not such a big deal to non focus on the PSAT other than to get a sense of the SAT and what to work on or whether to try the ACT Good luck to you.
@workinghard1234 Its just a competition thing though -right? Because PSAT gives you nothing special for Stanford and MIT, and Ivy League. (they may get $2500, big deal). The kids who really care about this (like my kid) are the ones not intending to apply to Ivy League and need merit at more lowly schools. So these kids are in essence, ‘wasting’ their NMF since they aren’t using them for the big scholarships.
So, we just received this e-mail from the GC at the school: “This morning, 1/11/16, we were finally able to reach a Supervisor at the College Board regarding our online score reports for the PSAT. Unfortunately, due to the incredibly large volume of students who took the PSAT this year (the largest number in the history of the exam), the College Board has been unable to make all student scores available at this juncture. As a function of the overwhelming number of test takers, the PSAT scores for our students are not yet available to anyone, but we’ve been assured that they will be given priority and hopefully be processed and released by the end of this week. At that time, we will have access to student codes” So, another week for us. Fabulous.
@MammaLlama - wow…so unfair! Where is your school?
NY
Yes, they just can’t resist the prestige and since the average SAT score at my school is over 2200, doing well just comes “naturally” at this point. And with more test prep materials with this new test, they “achievement gap” will get even greater. Too bad for those of us who really need the college money.
It’s not really “wasting” NMF. If given two otherwise equal candidates, wouldn’t the Ivies still choose the NMF over the non-NMF?