@chillkitty Yes, if your daughter score of 222 is in the Top 178 of the Juniors in CT. If 179 scored higher than 222 then it’s a tough luck. This year as I stated lot of high scores in all states has been reported (Unusually). Unfortunately one has to wait until September to see one qualified for NMSF unless one has a perfect score or about 1500 or higher with about 224 or higher then one can rest easy. All others has to wait out till September 2016 when official release takes place.
Excellent points dallaspiano.
@dallaspiano The analysis you’ve linked from the prepscholar website is silly. It isn’t statistically valid and yields cutoffs that are way way too low.
Good work.
Prepscholar doesn’t even have the right cutoffs… they are showing 224 for DC and NJ here:
http://blog.prepscholar.com/whats-a-good-psat-score-for-2015
And we know that the cutoff there was 225.
These conversions are way off- and they have not updated based on the new stuff college board has released. What’s going on with that? I know prepscholar was on this board at some point, but can’ remember his handle.
@DoyleB, your comments are offensive to me. I do not appreciate your language. In that post, I try to figure out how Rebecca and Lauren came out with the numbers. I did not analyze anything. Please, be courteous to other posters
Again, Please, do not take my opinions or conclusions seriously since I am junior in HS and if you follow my posts you would see things like “my methods or my ways of estimate have many flaws” or " an estimate is an estimate. My Guess is as good as or as bad as anybody’s". I am not a CB official (from msg 4120)
@dallaspiano, as a kid in HS we all want you to keep churning out new ideas; that’s what life is all about - keep it up!
@dallaspiano Sorry. The “silly” comment didn’t pertain to you - I’m aware that you just linked the data. But their analysis isn’t useful, and nobody should pay any attention to it.
@gettingschooled, @DoyleB and @suzyQ7 - On different DATA for NMF cut off for states
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Respectfully, I believe you have your data about NMF cutoff scores for states from RELIABLE sources. For example cutoff for TX (220) may come from this link : http://www.fairtest.org/sites/default/files/NationalMeritSemifinalist2016-scores.pdf
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I believe Prep Scholar Blogger Rebecca and Lauren had their data from their trusted sources too (218 for TX)
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I also found another source say TX cut off is 219 from this link http://hubpages.com/money/National-Merit
The cut off is not that much different and who can say that data you got is the most correct and final ones (not me)
I believe most CC members here, most of them are high PSAT scorers or concerned parents of ones. We, as CC members of this thread, want to share opinions about PSAT scores, help each others to understand some unclear issues, look for answers that we have questions about and etc… None of us is a CB official, who would have final says about cutoff for NMF 2017 (for October 2015 PSAT).
Data or opinions posted may be biased, but none of them mean to harm you or your kids, but use at your own discretion. Of course, we still have to wait until Sept 2016 to know the cutoff
@DoyleB, I am glad you clarify your comments. Let it go, no grudge about you any more
Not like to say it again but I got to repeat
Again, Please, do not take my opinions or conclusions seriously since I am junior in HS and if you follow my posts you would see things like “my methods or my ways of estimate have many flaws” or " an estimate is an estimate. My Guess is as good as or as bad as anybody’s"
Respectfully @dallaspiano I live in Texas, my S made a 219 and he got National Merit Commended and not NMSF. I am painfully aware of what this year’s cutoff was. The cutoff in 2015 was 218 but for class of 2016, it was 220.
Your link in number three is dated March 2014.
I don’t have a problem with your analysis but if you start with the wrong number on what we do know, you are less likely to be right.
Just sharing this very recent article:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/answer-sheet/wp/2016/01/17/problems-with-psat-score-delivery-sparks-anger-at-college-board/
@gettingschooled , thank you for sharing info about your S,
My cousin (North Dallas) got NMF with 219 from the following list
http://www.dallasnews.com/news/education/headlines/20150914-national-merit-program-announces-scholarship-semifinalists.ece
His last name is Tr…, due to privacy I can not disclose his name without his consent
If @gettingschooled child did not become nmsf with 219 and @dallspiano cousin became one with 219, this may be the first known case of nmsf split in the middle of score 219.
Has anyone else ever heard of such case??
FWIW, these pages have it Texas at 220 for Class of 2016.
http://www.collegeplanningsimplified.com/NationalMerit.html
http://www.fairtest.org/sites/default/files/NationalMeritSemifinalist2016-scores.pdf
@gettingschooled with msg #4193 -
In my msg #4179, I just tried to figure how Prep Scholar Rebecca and Lauren came out with their numbers (no analysis)
But in my msg #4113 and #4179, I suggested a new way to see data behavior based on data observation BUT NOT by number crunching. It is simpler but not perfect.
Sir or Mme, you are right when say “you are less likely to be right.”. BTW, you probably have better and newer ways to estimate, please share with us if you can - things that we have not seen from this thread
And,
Again, please, do not take my opinions or conclusions seriously since I am junior in HS and if you follow my posts you would see things like “my methods or my ways of estimate have many flaws” or " an estimate is an estimate. My Guess is as good as or as bad as anybody’s"
See post #966. If your cousin really made it with a 219, @WRUAustin and I would like to know about it. Both of our sons were commended with a 219.
I got a 223 in NY, do you guys think that I’ll be able to qualify for the semifinalist cutoff? If not, will I be able to get the commendation honor?
Also, from all these comments it seems that the cutoffs stated on prepscholar are inaccurate. Any idea what the cutoff might be? Are they in the same vicinity?
@MyGPASucksIKnow Although no one knows it for certain until September, you are likely to make nmsf in NY.
@MyGPASucksIKnow Congrats to you – I think you are most likely safe for NMSF with a 223. (NY predicted cut off seems to be 217 or + or minus a couple of points). But as you know, only time will tell for sure. Feel very proud!
You can appeal CB, nothing is final