Our school provides access to Naviance, which is extremely helpful in assessing our our particular demographic does with specific schools and general score/grade ranges (without regard, of course, to ECs and other variables). Clearly schools that are very similar on paper in terms of selectivity/stats respond very differently to kids from our district, presumably based on geography and other factors.

My question is, how best to use it to ballpark my own kid’s chances at a given school, and sort them into probables, matches (high/low), reaches (high/low) and fantasy.

I know that if the circle that signifies where my kid lands in terms of grades/scores appears in a sea of red X’s, that school is pure fantasy. I know that if the circle appears way off in the upper right hand corner above all prior acceptances for our school, the school will likely be insufficiently challenging. And I know that if a school’s acceptance rate is generally low (I forget the commonly accepted percentage), that school should be considered a reach, regardless (but whether it’s low/high or fantasy is another matter). My question is about all the in-between stuff. I know it’s not an exact science, but some general guidelines would be great in strategizing how to target future visits/interviews => applications.

- If the circle representing my kid falls mostly with other acceptances, but below the box signalling the stats of the
*average*acceptance? Reach, yes? How to distinguish between high and low reach? - If the circle falls outside/above the box signaling
*average*acceptance? Match? At what point does it tip into "probable?" - How should we factor in acceptance rate?
- What other variables should we consider?

Thanks so much.