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<p>We’ve seen this movie before. If you want to know how it ends, one place to look is the original 2002 edition of the Revealed Preferences college ranking study by Avery, Hoxby, Metrick, and Glickman. They had an unusually detailed and well vetted data set on several thousand applicants with high class rank at top 500 high schools in the USA in the 1999-2000 admission year. In addition to a richer data set than the Espenshade 2009 study, their method was better: they used the applicant decisions (of which college to attend) and college decisions (complete admit/deny result for all applicants) to calibrate each other, estimating the desirability of the colleges and of the individual applicants. This controls for the effect of additional material outside the study, such as interviews, letters of recommendation, essays, intangibles, etc, by using the collection of all college admission results to estimate each applicant’s desirability.</p>
<p>The result? A substantial positive statistical effect of being Asian on an applicant’s desirability to colleges, controlling for academic credentials, parents’ income and education, gender, geography, in-state residence, legacy status, and many other variables known from the data set, which as I mentioned was extremely rich by the standards of admission studies. That’s among elite applicants to a mostly high-ranked set of colleges, with schools like the Ivy League, MIT, Stanford, Duke, Caltech and upper LACs drawing the lion’s share of applications.</p>
<p>The Revealed Preferences authors called the Asian result “surprising” given the idea that Proposition 209 at the UCs benefited Asians — just as the studies that find Asian academic underperformance after admission (e.g., at Berkeley, at Duke, and in Espenshade’s sample) invariably call the negative Asian academic effect a “surprise”. If anyone had paid closer attention to the UC data, or considered the possibility that striving implies both success and underperformance, there would have been fewer surprises.</p>
<p>UC Statfinder has searchable data on all UCs and you can duly check the non-effects of Proposition 209 on Berkeley admission at a gross level, such as the ratio of white and Asian admission rates staying the same from 1997-8. This is the first sign that one should look further.</p>
<p>Then there are the Center For Equal Opportunity studies (authors were Lerner and Nagai, see ceousa.org) on UC Berkeley and UCSD admission data. The first study was a simulation of what race-blind admission at UCB would have looked like, based on a sample of applications a few years before Prop 209. Result: fewer Asians, more whites, if admission were done purely on an academic index derived from SAT + GPA. The UCSD study was based on application + admission data for UCSD and also found Asians had been admitted at higher rates compared to whites (I don’t recall what controls were used, if any).</p>
<p>A more recent, large-scale and direct test of the UC Asian discrimination theory was performed in a 2012 paper by Antonovic and Backes, “Were Minority Students Discouraged From Applying to University of California Campuses After the Affirmative Action Ban?”. Table 3 estimates the effect of race, math SAT, verbal SAT, GPA, income level, and parental education on admission probability to the UCs before and after Prop 209. Of the 8 campuses of the UC, only the UC Davis results are consistent with the idea of Asian discrimination being present before Prop 209 and absent or greatly reduced afterward. At other campuses either 209 seemed to have a negative effect on Asian admission chances, or there was a pro-Asian effect before 209, or the numbers before and after 209 appear to be small statistical noise. Despite a huge sample size of around 100000 applications in the analysis of each school, of the 8 (before) + 8 (after) Asian effects measured, 3 are not statistically significant and 2 were not significant beyond the 95% confidence level. Nada, yet again.</p>
<p>Another study (Contreras et al) compared post-209 enrollment levels to numbers of California high school graduates and found no change in the white/Asian numbers at the UC campuses considered. I think it was UCLA, Irvine and one other.</p>
<p>To summarize: as far as multiple studies can determine, NOTHING HAPPENED as a result of the ban on race in California, where white vs Asian comparisons are concerned.</p>
<p>That’s in California. Other logistic regression analyses (i.e., Espenshade’s methodology) performed by the Center for Equal Opportunity on UVA, U Wisconsin Madison, and other state flagship campuses showed pro-Asian affirmative action, and analyses at other campuses such as U Michigan showed a lack of discrimination. Studies of state law schools showed stronger pro-Asian affirmative action, which is not surprising in light of the lower average LSATs (and bar exam pass rates) for Asians compared to whites.
Speaking of lower LSATs, had the current China Pride guerillas looked into that data (ref: lsac.org) there would have been no dispute about the Baylor spreadsheet, which looks completely plausible.</p>
<p>I’ll get to the Princeton data later, but for now, suffice it to say that the movie does not end particularly differently in that case.</p>