Yeah, I get that. But the “inside baseball” calculations that are so popular on CC (“My SAT scores are ten points higher than the median but my need is 5K more than the average award, but I’m from Wyoming, and my history teacher says I’m the best student she’s ever had”) are such a waste of time.
Do the NPC. Be diligent about entering accurate information, and have your financial realities laid out in front of you. All the other drama seems to me to be a waste of energy. And at the end of the day- how does knowing that YOUR admissions probability is 16% instead of 13% going to help you? Need aware is need aware. Need blind is need blind. And for the most part, it doesn’t matter because most schools can’t award full need anyway.