Realistic College Admission Chances?

Hello. I am a worrying junior that will start senior year soon. I am writing up my college admissions for UCs and have started my Common Apps but I can’t help but think that I’m doomed. My academics aren’t impressive and my extracurriculars are mediocre. I ended with a 4.1 W GPA and a 3.75 GPA. My class rank falls about 45 out of 385. I’ve done varsity sports for two years, winning some awards. The only shiny stat is my ACT score, which I got 36, and my 6 years of dedication to volunteer work. I also have 3 Presidential awards and some national dance awards, but they don’t really pertain to my major (Communications). The most worrying thing about my transcript is that I got Ds for both junior semesters in AP Calc AB. (Yikes, I know. Junior year was tough on me. I had always hated math and had to balance 4 more AP classes on top of that.) I have made them up with A’s with summer school, but that is a huge blemish on my transcript. I’m not that much of an interesting person per se, but I feel as if essays are my only way to have at least a chance to get into my dream colleges. I want to apply to USC, UCLA, and NYU as my top schools, but what are my chances?

You can take a look at UCLA and USC freshman profiles:

http://www.admission.ucla.edu/Prospect/Adm_fr/Frosh_Prof18.htm
http://admission.usc.edu/wp-content/uploads/Freshman-Profile-2019.pdf

Note that USC appears to weight test scores more heavily relative to GPA than UCLA.

http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/university-california-general/2127392-faq-uc-historical-frosh-admit-rates-by-hs-gpa-2018.html can give you some information about admission rates at UCs by GPA (the UC recalculated weighted-capped version).

Your chances are pretty good. What really matters is your essay. Have you begun to think about how you are going to approach the most important part of your application?

If your D’s were replaced, both the failing and passing grades will still appear on your transcript and could be detrimental to your chances regardless of whether the class pertains to your future major.

Something to note-if you are accepted to a UC, you can be rescinded if you get a D in any class.